The Fed odds

Every The Fed market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.

632 open markets · $4M traded today

The Fed's next meetings

Target range now 3.75–4.00%Cut Hold Hike

Oct 2888%Hold 88%3.90%Kalshi Polymarket
Dec 919%79%Hike 79%4.10%Kalshi Polymarket
Jan 2758%40%Hold 58%4.20%Kalshi Polymarket
Mar 1729%63%Hike 63%4.34%Kalshi
Apr 2856%35%Hold 56%4.40%Kalshi
Jun 959%37%Hold 59%4.49%Kalshi

The chance of a cut, a hold or a hike at each meeting, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged where both list it, and the target-range midpoint those odds imply.

Trending the fed markets

Fed Decision in October?

88%No change

No change88%
25 bps increase11%
50+ bps increase<1%
25 bps decrease<1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease<1%

^FVX+0.75%^GSPC+0.58%

Fed Decision in December?

78%25 bps increase

25 bps increase78%▲ 1
No change18%▼ 1
50+ bps increase3%
25 bps decrease1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease1%

^TNX+0.57%^IRX-0.42%

Fed Decision in January?

60%No change

No change60%▼ 1
25 bps increase38%▲ 1
50+ bps increase1%
25 bps decrease1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease1%

TLT+0.14%SPY+0.53%

Fed decision in Jul 2027?

72%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate72%▼ 1
Hike 25bps20%▲ 5
Cut >25bps4%▼ 1
Cut 25bps3%▲ 1

1 more

Hike >25bps1%

^IRX-0.42%^GSPC+0.58%

Fed decision in Sep 2027?

76%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate76%▼ 1
Hike 25bps9%▲ 1
Cut >25bps5%▲ 2
Cut 25bps5%▲ 3

1 more

Hike >25bps5%▲ 3

TLT+0.14%SPY+0.53%

Fed decision in Mar 2027?

62%Hike 25bps

Hike 25bps62%
Fed maintains rate29%▼ 1
Cut 25bps6%▲ 5
Cut >25bps1%▼ 1

1 more

Hike >25bps1%

TLT+0.14%SPY+0.53%

Fed decision in Apr 2027?

55%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate55%▲ 21
Hike 25bps33%▼ 18
Cut 25bps6%▲ 3
Cut >25bps4%▲ 2

1 more

Hike >25bps2%▼ 1

^FVX+0.75%TLT+0.14%

Fed decision in Oct 2027?

86%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate86%▲ 11
Cut 25bps6%▼ 1
Hike 25bps3%▲ 1
Cut >25bps2%▼ 2

1 more

Hike >25bps2%

^FVX+0.75%^GSPC+0.58%

Fed decision in Dec 2027?

53%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate53%
Cut 25bps26%▼ 17
Hike 25bps11%▲ 9
Hike >25bps2%▼ 1

1 more

Cut >25bps1%

^GSPC+0.58%^FVX+0.75%

Fed decision in Jun 2027?

59%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate59%▼ 4
Hike 25bps35%▲ 3
Cut 25bps3%▼ 1
Hike >25bps3%▲ 1

1 more

Cut >25bps1%▼ 2

TLT+0.14%SPY+0.53%

Fed decision in Jan 2028?

52%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate52%▼ 5
Hike >25bps20%▲ 12
Hike 25bps12%▲ 3
Cut 25bps11%

1 more

Cut >25bps5%▲ 1

IEF-0.02%^TNX+0.57%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%
4 (100 bps)<1%

9 more

3 (75 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

SPY+0.53%SHY-0.01%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.23%median

0.88%4.63%

Median 4.23%Middle half 4.13% – 4.32%

Fed rate cut by...?

52%July 2027 Meeting

July 2027 Meeting52%▲ 2
June 2027 Meeting35%▲ 4
April 2027 Meeting34%▲ 4
March 2027 Meeting13%▼ 2

3 more

January 2027 Meeting7%▲ 2
December 2026 Meeting3%
October 2026 Meeting<1%

SHY-0.01%IEF-0.02%

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.03median

-0.5020.5

Median 0.03Middle half -0.24 – 0.29

TLT+0.14%SPY+0.53%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

4.34%high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 4.34%.

Reaches 4.25%73%
Reaches 4.5%9%
Reaches 4.75%8%

Falls to 3.25%2%
Falls to 3%2%
Falls to 2.75%2%

Already reached: ↓ 3.5%

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

70%2 (50 bps)

2 (50 bps)70%▲ 1
1 (25 bps)20%
3 (75 bps)9%
4 (100 bps)1%

1 more

5+ (125+ bps)<1%

TLT+0.14%SPY+0.53%

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

81%chance

^GSPC+0.58%^FVX+0.75%

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

70%Hike–Pause–Hike

Hike–Pause–Hike70%▲ 3
Hike–Pause–Pause18%▼ 1
Hike–Hike–Hike8%▲ 1
Hike–Hike–Pause3%▲ 1

1 more

Other1%

Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?

0.02median

-0.504.50

Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28

TLT+0.14%SPY+0.53%

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

4.1%median

2.5%5.5%

Median 4.1%Middle half 3.98% – 4.21%

^FVX+0.75%^GSPC+0.58%

Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?

4.42%median

-0.25%6%

Median 4.42%

SHY-0.01%IEF-0.02%

Next Fed rate hike?

97%Before 2029

Before 202997%
Before July 202896%▲ 1
Before July 202795%▲ 2
Before 202894%▲ 1

1 more

Before 202782%▲ 4

TLT+0.14%SPY+0.53%

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

98%No change

No change98%
Hike 25 bps2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Decided soon

Calendar ›

SOFR for October 21, 20263.88% Closes today 7:59 AM ET

Prices these markets are about

All ›

Price it is about	Last	Today	Markets
SPYSPY	773.09	+0.53%	14
S&P 500^GSPC	7,757.17	+0.58%	14
TLTTLT	80.24	+0.14%	23
IEFIEF	90.23	−0.02%	14
10Y Yield^TNX	5.146	+0.57%	14
30Y Yield^TYX	5.439	+0.26%	9
5Y Yield^FVX	4.972	+0.75%	6
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury BondIEI	113.97	−0.04%	6
Yum! Brands, Inc.YUM	151.24	−0.24%	6
EUR/USDEURUSD=X	1.1226	−0.08%	2

Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

The Fed news

More news ›

Barclays CEO outlines the three forces to watch in the bond marketCNBC · 4 h ago
U.S. Treasury yields may be poised for a breakout with Fed meeting as catalyst, says BMOCNBC · 4 h ago
Map Shows States Where Unemployment Is Growing Two Weeks Before MidtermNewsweek · 8 h ago
Stock futures fall as investors digest earnings from Meta and Tesla: Live updatesCNBC · 9 h ago
Treasury Counselor David Zervos: Energy shock, not sticky inflation, driving yieldsCNBC · 11 h ago
Goldman Sachs Raises Music Industry Growth Forecast for First Time in 3 YearsBillboard · 13 h ago
The financial stability risk that worries Janet YellenPOLITICO · 14 h ago
Top economist dismisses claims America's economy is 'booming'Newsweek · 15 h ago

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.