Fed decision in Jun 2027?
57%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate57%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps28%
- Cut >25bps6%
- Cut 25bps6%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
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Fed decision in Jul 2027?
The odds
78%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate78%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps6%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Fed maintains rate: 78% on Oct 13, 78% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 78% | ▼ 2 | 76¢ | 80¢ | 62.8K |
| Hike 25bps | 10% | ▲ 3 | 6¢ | 13¢ | 6.0K |
| Cut 25bps | 7% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 8¢ | 14.2K |
| Hike >25bps | 6% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | 9¢ | 2.5K |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 31.9K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed decision in Sep 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%▼ 1
- Hike 25bps8%
- Cut 25bps8%
- Hike >25bps6%
1 more
- Cut >25bps5%
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
64%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate64%
- Hike >25bps15%▲ 8
- Cut 25bps10%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps6%▼ 1
1 more
- Cut >25bps4%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
66%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate66%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps19%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps10%
- Cut >25bps4%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
45%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps45%▼ 5
- Fed maintains rate43%▲ 2
- Cut >25bps5%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps4%
1 more
- Cut 25bps3%▲ 1
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%
- Cut >25bps7%
- Cut 25bps7%
- Hike 25bps7%
1 more
- Hike >25bps5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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