Track Record

Are prediction markets right? When the markets said 70%, how often did it happen? Every outcome of every market 4Search followed to its result counts once, at the chance traders gave it the day before it closed.

Markets settled129342 outcomes
The favorite won68%of 99 markets with one
Brier score0.1670 is perfect, 0.25 a coin flip

Calibration

0% 0% 20% 20% 40% 40% 60% 60% 80% 80% 100% 100% Priced 0–10% (average 3%): happened 0% of 45 times Priced 10–20% (average 15%): happened 15% of 74 times Priced 20–30% (average 25%): happened 34% of 32 times Priced 30–40% (average 35%): happened 33% of 45 times Priced 40–50% (average 46%): happened 50% of 44 times Priced 50–60% (average 53%): happened 52% of 33 times Priced 60–70% (average 65%): happened 57% of 28 times Priced 70–80% (average 74%): happened 63% of 16 times Priced 80–90% (average 85%): happened 100% of 6 times Priced 90–100% (average 97%): happened 100% of 19 times The market's chance a day before How often it happened
Markets priced it Outcomes Average chance Happened
0–10% 45 3% 0%
10–20% 74 15% 15%
20–30% 32 25% 34%
30–40% 45 35% 33%
40–50% 44 46% 50%
50–60% 33 53% 52%
60–70% 28 65% 57%
70–80% 16 74% 63%
80–90% 6 85% 100%
90–100% 19 97% 100%

A perfectly calibrated market sits on the dashed line: things it priced at 70% happen 70% of the time. Each dot is a tenth of the scale; its size, how many outcomes it holds.

By topic

Outcomes Brier Favorite won
Sports 330 0.171 68% of 99
Crypto 12 0.047 —

The Brier score is the average squared gap between the chance and what happened (1 if it did, 0 if not): lower is better.

By venue

Outcomes Brier Favorite won
Kalshi 342 0.167 —

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.