10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?
5.1%median
4.93%5.25%
Median 5.1%Middle half 5.07% – 5.12%
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IEF IEF prediction markets
Every prediction market about IEF: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
On what it tracks
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
28%Below 4.85%
4.8%5.13%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
40%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
5.04%median
4.99%5.11%
Median 5.04%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
22%5.32%
5.29%5.65%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
5%Below 1.0%
0%4.8%
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end? (Dec 31, 2026)
5.26%median
4.49%6.24%
Median 5.26%Middle half 4.89% – 5.59%
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?
5.07%median
4.89%5.25%
Median 5.07%Middle half 5.01% – 5.18%
How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
13%5.32% or above
5.3%5.59%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
5.35%median
5.24%5.54%
Median 5.35%
Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
3%chance▲ 1
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
43%Above .7%
0.6%1.1%
10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026
36.97%median
-40%80%
Median 36.97%Middle half 21% – 54.07%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?
5.22%median
5.09%5.44%
Median 5.22%Middle half 5.18% – 5.26%
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
87%No change
- No change87%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase13%▼ 2
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
57%No change
- No change57%▼ 5
- 25 bps increase36%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%▲ 1
- No change19%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%▼ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
80%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate80%▲ 5
- Hike 25bps15%▲ 2
- Cut >25bps4%▲ 4
- Hike >25bps4%▲ 4
1 more
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 3
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
68%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%
- 3 (75 bps)10%
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
82%chance▲ 2
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.04% – 4.21%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 5
- Hike 25bps43%▲ 21
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
86%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate86%▲ 14
- Cut 25bps7%
- Hike 25bps3%▼ 6
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 7
1 more
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 1
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
52%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate52%▼ 17
- Cut 25bps40%▲ 35
- Hike 25bps2%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 4
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 7
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.51%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.51%Middle half 4.18% – 5.47%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
65%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps65%▲ 17
- Fed maintains rate28%▼ 3
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 3
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Fed rate cut by...?
50%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting31%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting28%
- March 2027 Meeting14%▼ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting4%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%▲ 1
- Before July 202896%
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202793%▲ 1
1 more
- Before 202782%▼ 1
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
4.42%median
-0.25%6%
Median 4.42%
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0.02median
-0.504.50
Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
84%chance▲ 28
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
3.89%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.82% – 3.97%
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
85%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate85%▲ 4
- Hike 25bps10%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps3%
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 4
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 5
October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
75%Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >075%▼ 7
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 012%▼ 3
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >09%▲ 4
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 02%▼ 2
2 more
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 01%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >01%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
60%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate60%▲ 2
- Hike 25bps33%▲ 4
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 4
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 2
Fed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?
4.85%median
-0.25%6%
Median 4.85%Middle half 4.16% – 5%
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 2 – 2
Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?
4.25%median
-0.25%6.75%
Median 4.25%Middle half 4.1% – 4.93%
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