S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 20?
$767.96median
$735$795
Median $767.96Middle half $766.46 – $769.46
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SPY SPY prediction markets
Every prediction market about SPY: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
Where traders see SPY
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
$767.50median
$745$805
Median $767.50Middle half $766.25 – $768.75
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
$774.85high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $774.85 and as low as $761.03.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $77549%
- Reaches $78020%
- Falls to $765>99%
- Falls to $76037%
- Falls to $75518%
Already reached: ↑ $765
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
$780.79high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $780.79 and as low as $757.65.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $78053%
- Reaches $79021%
- Falls to $76056%
- Falls to $75031%
- Falls to $74017%
Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770
On what it tracks
Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
92%chance
S&P 500 Daily Up/Down (Oct 20, 2026)
94%chance
S&P 500 Futures Price (Oct 20, 2026)
7,754median
7,5257,975
Median 7,754
S&P price range on Oct 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
7,713median
7,2758,025
Median 7,713Middle half 7,702 – 7,723
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
70%S&P 500
- S&P 50070%▲ 1
- Bitcoin18%
- Gold5%▼ 2
How high will the S&P get this year? (2026)
8,063high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,063.
- Reaches 8,00061%
- Reaches 8,20026%
- Reaches 8,40013%
Already reached: 7,800 or above
S&P close price end of 2026?
7,826median
3,8009,200
Median 7,826Middle half 7,427 – 8,067
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
8,065high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,065 and as low as 7,395.
- Reaches 8,00057%
- Reaches 8,20035%
- Reaches 8,6006%
- Falls to 7,40051%
- Falls to 7,20029%
- Falls to 7,00023%
Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
S&P 500 Futures Price (Dec 31, 2026)
7,960median
2,6009,050
Median 7,960Middle half 7,627 – 8,352
How low will the S&P get this year? (2026)
9%6,300 or below
- Falls to 6,3009%
- Falls to 6,2009%
- Falls to 6,1006%
S&P 2027 year end price range
7,888median
4,40010,600
Median 7,888Middle half 6,919 – 8,756
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
86%No change
- No change86%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase14%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
57%No change
- No change57%▼ 7
- 25 bps increase38%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
80%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate80%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps15%▲ 2
- Cut >25bps4%▲ 4
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 2
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▲ 1
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%▲ 1
- No change19%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
82%chance▲ 1
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
68%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)68%▲ 2
- 1 (25 bps)20%
- 3 (75 bps)11%▲ 1
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.32%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.32%Middle half 2.76% – 3.89%
US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 8
- Hike 25bps43%▲ 35
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
89%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate89%▲ 17
- Cut 25bps7%
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 7
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 1
1 more
- Hike 25bps1%▼ 7
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
52%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate52%▼ 26
- Cut 25bps39%▲ 35
- Hike 25bps2%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 4
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 8
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.03% – 4.21%
Fed rate cut before 2027?
3%chance▼ 2
Fed rate cut by...?
50%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting31%
- April 2027 Meeting29%
- March 2027 Meeting14%▼ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
65%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps65%▲ 17
- Fed maintains rate28%▼ 3
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 3
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%▲ 1
- Before July 202895%▼ 1
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202793%▲ 1
1 more
- Before 202782%▼ 1
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 2 – 2
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
4.42%median
-0.25%6%
Median 4.42%
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0.02median
-0.504.50
Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.56%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.56%Middle half 4.2% – 5.16%
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
85%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate85%▲ 4
- Hike 25bps10%
- Cut >25bps3%▼ 2
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 4
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 5
Recession in 2027?
21%chance
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
3.9%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 3.9%Middle half 3.82% – 3.97%
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.