Fed decision in Apr 2027?
57%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate57%▼ 1
- Hike 25bps32%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%
2 more
- Cut >25bps4%
- Hike >25bps2%
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Fed decision in Jun 2027?
The odds
59%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate59%▼ 4
- Hike 25bps32%▼ 2
- Cut 25bps3%
- Hike >25bps2%
- Cut >25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Fed maintains rate: 58% on Oct 20, 59% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 59% | ▼ 4 | 58¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 3.1K |
| Hike 25bps | 32% | ▼ 2 | 29¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 2.8K |
| Cut 25bps | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 16.1K | |
| Hike >25bps | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.5K | ||
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 22.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal ReserveRealClearMarkets Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal Reserve -
Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
West Virginia home prices outpace national growth, says Federal Reserve reportWest Virginia’s unemployment rate fell to 4% in September, below the national average, but year-over-year job growth remained flat as home prices rose 8% in the second quarter of 2026, outpacing national growth, according to the Federal… -
Nexo: Federal Reserve Decisions Put Crypto Market Recovery to the TestAccording to Nexo’s analysis, bitcoin’s price trajectory depends largely on Federal Reserve policy and upcoming inflation trends. Continued growth could be sustained if interest rates are held steady or reduced, whereas hawkish monetary… -
US dollar slips as Treasury yields fall ahead of Federal Reserve meetingReviewed by Rami Haddad, Editor-in-Chief · Last update: 2026.10.22 The US dollar weakened against major currencies on Thursday, October 22, as declining Treasury yields reduced support for the greenback, while investors assessed the… -
The Federal Reserve's Latest October Inflation Forecast Has Arrived, and It's Terrible News for Wall StreetYear four of Wall Street's bull market didn't disappoint. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.02%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.21%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.60%) to… -
Satire: Federal Reserve warns that ‘walking-around money’ could soon exceed $50The following piece is satire and should not be misconstrued as actual reporting. Any resemblance to a student, staff or faculty member is coincidental. Earlier today, high-ranking members of the United States Federal Reserve issued a… - Brent Crude Tops $100 as Markets Await Federal Reserve September Meeting MinutesUS stock futures showed little directional conviction Wednesday morning as market participants positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting readout. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped marginally into negative…
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Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hikeDespite hot inflation prints in September and the Fed having signalled that further action to tame inflation will likely be needed, markets and economists are united in expecting the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at the 28… - axe-maker-gallery - Federal Reserve Bank of BostonSparks fly as a blacksmith does his work at Maine axe-maker Brant & Cochran. Steve Osemwenkhae/Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Mark Ferguson co-founded axe-maker Brant & Cochran, which is located in South Portland, Maine. Steve…
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The Federal Reserve at a Time of UncertaintyAs if all this uncertainty were not enough, scientists are confidently predicting that a Super El Niño current this year will seriously disrupt global weather patterns. In turn, that could lead to major disruptions in the world food supply…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed decision in Jul 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%
- Hike 25bps20%▲ 1
- Cut >25bps2%
2 more
- Cut 25bps2%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
55%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps55%▼ 1
- Fed maintains rate27%▼ 4
- Cut 25bps19%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
75%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate75%▼ 5
- Hike 25bps10%
- Cut 25bps6%▲ 1
2 more
- Cut >25bps5%
- Hike >25bps5%
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
64%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate64%▲ 4
- Hike 25bps31%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps3%▲ 2
2 more
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
86%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate86%▲ 5
- Cut 25bps7%
- Hike 25bps4%▲ 1
2 more
- Cut >25bps2%
- Hike >25bps2%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.