Politics odds

The White House, Congress, the courts and the policy fights: what traders expect Washington and the world's governments to do.

777 open markets · $605K traded today

Trending politics markets

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Aug 21, 2028even chance by
  • Before Nov 1, 20262%
  • Before Dec 1, 20265%
  • Before Jan 1, 20279%
  • Before Feb 1, 202710%▲ 1
13 more
  • Before Mar 1, 202714%
  • Before Apr 1, 202719%
  • Before May 1, 202719%▼ 1
  • Before Jun 1, 202724%▼ 2
  • Before Jul 1, 202733%▲ 2
  • Before Aug 1, 202733%▼ 1
  • Before Sep 1, 202734%▲ 1
  • Before Oct 1, 202735%▼ 1
  • Before Nov 1, 202740%
  • Before Dec 1, 202740%▼ 1
  • Before Jan 1, 202846%▲ 1
  • Before Jul 1, 202849%▼ 2
  • Before Jan 1, 202954%▼ 2
KalshiFor Mar 17 · $4.8K today · $1.3M traded

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

84%Vladimir Putin
  • Vladimir Putin84%▼ 1
  • Mohammed bin Salman62%▼ 12
  • Kim Jong Un14%▲ 1
  • Changpeng Zhao11%
10 more
  • Aleksandr Lukashenko9%▼ 1
  • King Mohammed VI6%▼ 1
  • MrBeast5%
  • Pope Leo XIV4%
  • Lai Ching-te4%▼ 1
  • Nick Fuentes4%
  • iShowSpeed3%▼ 1
  • Yoon Suk Yeol3%
  • Nicolás Maduro2%
  • Jair Bolsonaro2%
PolymarketCloses Dec 31 · $5.2K today · $1.3M traded

Maduro Prison Time?

56%No prison time
  • No prison time56%
  • 60+22%▼ 2
  • <207%
  • 40–605%▼ 2
1 more
  • 20–403%
PolymarketCloses Dec 31, 2027 · $200 today · $926K traded

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

71%Ric Grenell
  • Ric Grenell71%▲ 1
  • Susie Wiles38%▼ 2
  • Doug Collins31%
  • Amy Gleason28%▲ 1
27 more
  • Pete Hegseth25%
  • Bill Pulte22%▲ 2
  • Linda McMahon19%
  • Brooke Rollins18%
  • Kash Patel18%▲ 1
  • Howard Lutnick18%▼ 1
  • Steve Witkoff18%▼ 3
  • Mike Huckabee16%
  • Chris Wright16%▲ 2
  • Tom Homan15%
  • Peter Navarro14%
  • Scott Turner14%▲ 1
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%▼ 1
  • Doug Burgum14%▲ 1
  • Stephen Miller13%▲ 1
  • Sean Duffy13%▼ 1
  • John Ratcliffe13%▼ 1
  • Rodney Scott13%
  • Jamieson Greer12%▼ 1
  • Russell Vought12%
  • Mehmet Oz12%
  • Steven Cheung12%▲ 1
  • Brendan Carr11%▲ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler11%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio10%▲ 2
  • Lee Zeldin7%
  • Scott Bessent7%▲ 1

Will Trump be impeached? (Before 2028)

Aug 4, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 20274%
  • Before Feb 1, 202716%▼ 1
  • Before Mar 1, 202727%▼ 1
  • Before Apr 1, 202735%
6 more
  • Before May 1, 202740%▼ 2
  • Before Jun 1, 202744%▼ 3
  • Before Jul 1, 202749%
  • Before Aug 1, 202750%▲ 1
  • Before Oct 1, 202764%▼ 2
  • Before Jan 1, 202866%▲ 1
KalshiCloses Jan 1, 2028 · $2.4K today · $964K traded

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 7 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.