Fed decision in Dec 2026?
72%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps72%▲ 1
- Fed maintains rate24%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps2%
- Cut 25bps1%
1 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
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Fed Decision in December?
The odds
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
25 bps increase: 74% on Oct 13, 74% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 74% | ▲ 1 | 75¢ | 76¢ | $776.0K |
| No change | 22% | 22¢ | 23¢ | $680.5K | |
| 50+ bps increase | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $420.2K | |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $603.9K | |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $560.4K |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
62%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate62%▼ 4
- Hike 25bps32%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps4%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps1%
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
47%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps47%▼ 2
- Fed maintains rate42%▲ 3
- Cut >25bps4%▲ 1
- Cut 25bps3%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
66%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate66%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps19%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps10%
- Cut >25bps4%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
57%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate57%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps28%
- Cut >25bps6%
- Cut 25bps6%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
78%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate78%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps6%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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