S&P 500 Futures Price (Oct 20, 2026)
27%Above 7,325
7,3007,975
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S&P 500 ^GSPC prediction markets
Every prediction market about S&P 500: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
Where traders see S&P 500
Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
92%chance
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
70%S&P 500
- S&P 50070%
- Bitcoin18%▲ 1
- Gold5%▼ 1
How high will the S&P get this year? (2026)
8,077high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,077.
- Reaches 8,00065%
- Reaches 8,20027%
- Reaches 8,40012%
Already reached: 7,800 or above
S&P close price end of 2026?
7,828median
3,8009,200
Median 7,828Middle half 7,421 – 8,064
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
8,065high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,065 and as low as 7,395.
- Reaches 8,00057%
- Reaches 8,20035%
- Reaches 8,6006%
- Falls to 7,40051%
- Falls to 7,20029%
- Falls to 7,00023%
Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
S&P 500 Daily Up/Down (Oct 21, 2026)
66%chance
S&P 500 Futures Price (Dec 31, 2026)
7,960median
2,6009,050
Median 7,960Middle half 7,627 – 8,352
How low will the S&P get this year? (2026)
8%6,300 or below
- Falls to 6,3008%
- Falls to 6,2008%
- Falls to 6,1005%
S&P 2027 year end price range
7,846median
4,40010,800
Median 7,846Middle half 6,883 – 8,680
On what it tracks
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 20?
$767.50median
$735$795
Median $767.50Middle half $766.25 – $768.75
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
$767.50median
$745$805
Median $767.50Middle half $766.25 – $768.75
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
$775.97high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $775.97 and as low as $761.60.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $77556%
- Reaches $78023%
- Falls to $765>99%
- Falls to $76027%
- Falls to $75511%
Already reached: ↑ $765
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
$782high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $782 and as low as $759.04.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $78056%
- Reaches $79024%
- Falls to $76052%
- Falls to $75028%
- Falls to $74010%
Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
87%No change
- No change87%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase12%▼ 2
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
60%No change
- No change60%▼ 5
- 25 bps increase37%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%
- No change19%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
State of the economy at the end of 2026
69%Overheating
- Overheating69%▲ 1
- Soft landing27%
- Stagflation2%
- Slack / disinflation1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps18%▲ 6
- Cut >25bps5%▲ 4
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 3
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▲ 1
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
70%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)70%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%
- 3 (75 bps)9%▼ 1
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting?
77%Above 3.25%
-0.25%5%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.24 – 0.29
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
81%chance▼ 1
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.19%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.19%Middle half 2.67% – 3.77%
Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%
- Before July 202895%
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202793%▲ 1
1 more
- Before 202777%▼ 5
Fed rate cut by...?
51%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting51%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting32%▲ 3
- June 2027 Meeting31%▼ 2
- March 2027 Meeting14%
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 2 – 2
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 11
- Hike 25bps43%▲ 34
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.03% – 4.21%
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
76%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate76%
- Cut 25bps7%
- Cut >25bps3%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps2%▼ 6
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 7
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▼ 1
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
52%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate52%▼ 31
- Cut 25bps37%▲ 37
- Hike 25bps2%▼ 3
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 4
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 6
Fed rate cut before 2027?
3%chance▼ 1
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
64%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps64%▲ 9
- Fed maintains rate31%
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 3
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
4.42%median
-0.25%6%
Median 4.42%
US real GDP growth in 2026?
2.26%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.26%Middle half 1.95% – 2.44%
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
85%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate85%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 1
- Cut >25bps3%▼ 1
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 3
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 5
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.56%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.56%Middle half 4.13% – 4.88%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
62%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate62%▲ 4
- Hike 25bps31%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 3
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 5
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 2
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