How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.16%median
4.95%5.4%
Median 5.16%
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5Y Yield ^FVX prediction markets
Every prediction market about 5Y Yield: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
Where traders see 5Y Yield
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
11%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?
37%Below 4.65%
4.6%4.92%
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?
4.9%median
4.73%5.05%
Median 4.9%Middle half 4.88% – 4.92%
How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
50%4.88% or below
4.76%4.9%
How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
46%5.07% or above
5.05%5.36%
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
87%No change
- No change87%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase13%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%
- No change19%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
59%No change
- No change59%▼ 4
- 25 bps increase36%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
79%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate79%▲ 2
- Hike 25bps15%▲ 3
- Cut >25bps4%▲ 4
- Hike >25bps4%▲ 4
1 more
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
68%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%
- 3 (75 bps)10%
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
82%chance▲ 2
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.03% – 4.21%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 7
- Hike 25bps43%▲ 21
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 2
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
82%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate82%▲ 6
- Cut 25bps7%
- Cut >25bps3%
- Hike 25bps3%▼ 6
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 7
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 18
- Cut 25bps42%▲ 35
- Hike 25bps2%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 3
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 7
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.51%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.51%Middle half 4.18% – 5.47%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
65%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps65%▲ 17
- Fed maintains rate28%▼ 3
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 3
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Fed rate cut by...?
50%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting31%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting28%
- March 2027 Meeting14%▼ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting4%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0.02median
-0.504.50
Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28
Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%▲ 1
- Before July 202896%
- Before 202894%
- Before July 202793%▲ 1
1 more
- Before 202782%▼ 1
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
4.42%median
-0.25%6%
Median 4.42%
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
85%chance▲ 28
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
3.89%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.82% – 3.96%
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
85%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate85%▲ 4
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 1
- Cut >25bps3%
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 4
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 5
October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
75%Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >075%▼ 7
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 012%▼ 3
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >09%▲ 4
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 02%▼ 2
2 more
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 01%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >01%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
60%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate60%▲ 2
- Hike 25bps33%▲ 4
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 5
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 2
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 2 – 2
Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?
4.25%median
-0.25%6.75%
Median 4.25%Middle half 4.1% – 4.93%
Fed median dot plot in December 2026
4.06%median
3.4%4.7%
Median 4.06%Middle half 4.01% – 4.11%
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? (2026)
2%chance
Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026 FOMC)
80%Beth Hammack
- Beth Hammack80%▲ 1
- Lorie Logan48%
- Neel Kashkari37%
- Michelle Bowman11%
8 more
- Anna Paulson8%
- Christopher Waller7%
- Michael Barr5%
- Kevin Warsh2%
- John Williams2%▲ 1
- Lisa Cook2%
- Philip Jefferson2%
- Jerome Powell1%
US Fed Funds Target Rate (Oct 29, 2026)
3.76%median
1.13%4.63%
Median 3.76%Middle half 3.69% – 3.83%
How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026)
1.66median
-0.505.50
Median 1.66Middle half 0.49 – 2.58
US Fed Funds Target Rate (Dec 10, 2026)
4%median
0.88%4.88%
Median 4%Middle half 3.9% – 4.1%
Next Fed rate cut?
89%Before 2029
- Before 202989%
- Before July 202868%
- Before 202848%
- Before July 202724%▲ 2
1 more
- Before 20273%
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
4%chance
US Fed Funds Target Rate (Jan 28, 2027)
4.07%median
0.63%4.88%
Median 4.07%Middle half 3.95% – 4.25%
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