Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
4%December 31
- October 311%
- December 314%
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Tech & Science odds
AI models and labs, SpaceX and space, big tech's launches and the open questions of science.
Trending tech & science markets
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
27%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%▲ 1
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 202714%
- December 31, 202827%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.15Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.15T.
- Reaches $1.5T88%
- Reaches $1.75T70%
- Reaches $2T61%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
- Falls to $600B3%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
79%Google
- Google79%▲ 7
- Anthropic20%▼ 8
- OpenAI1%
- Meta1%
17 more
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
52%Anthropic
- Anthropic52%▲ 2
- Google40%
- OpenAI5%
- xAI1%
11 more
- Meta1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Meituan<1%
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202817%▼ 1
- December 31, 202924%
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
30%December 31
- October 232%▼ 1
- October 313%▼ 1
- November 3021%▼ 1
- December 3130%▲ 10
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
Jun 10, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202619%▼ 2
- January 31, 202731%▼ 2
- February 28, 202736%
- June 30, 202753%▲ 2
1 more
- December 31, 202766%▲ 2
Best AI at the end of 2026?
52%Claude
- Claude52%
- Gemini38%
- ChatGPT9%
- Grok3%
4 more
- Muse2%
- Qwen1%
- Kimi<1%
- Ernie<1%
DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)
26.01%median
21.6%29%
Median 26.01%Middle half 25.21% – 27.09%
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Dec 26, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202616%
- December 31, 202751%
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
30%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%▲ 1
- June 30, 202713%▼ 2
- December 31, 202717%▲ 1
- December 31, 202830%▲ 1
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
26%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20263%
- June 30, 202714%
- December 31, 202720%▼ 1
- December 31, 202826%
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
26%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%
- June 30, 202711%
- December 31, 202712%
- December 31, 202826%
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
21%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%
- June 30, 20279%
- December 31, 202713%
- December 31, 202821%
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
27%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20263%
- June 30, 202716%
- December 31, 202720%▼ 1
- December 31, 202827%
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? (Before 2027)
20%Before Jan 20, 2029
- Before Jan 20, 202920%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202814%
- Before Jan 1, 20274%
- Before Dec 1, 20263%
1 more
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
45%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 202618%▲ 16
- June 30, 202727%▲ 1
- December 31, 202745%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 27, 2026even chance by
- October 2117%▼ 10
- October 2229%▼ 19
- October 2433%▼ 20
- October 3178%▲ 2
1 more
- December 3197%▼ 1
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
49%Google
- Google49%▼ 5
- Anthropic42%▲ 3
- OpenAI5%▲ 1
- Meta2%
17 more
- Alibaba1%
- Z.ai1%
- Moonshot<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
28%1480+
1,4701,520
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
9%chance
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
96%No release by November 1
- No release by November 196%
- October 26–November 13%▲ 1
- October 19–October 252%
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
61%Before 2030
- Before 203061%
- Before 202850%▲ 1
- Before 20273%▼ 1
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