10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?
5.1%median
4.93%5.25%
Median 5.1%Middle half 5.07% – 5.12%
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10Y Yield ^TNX prediction markets
Every prediction market about 10Y Yield: its own price outlook, questions about it, and the ones that move it.
Where traders see 10Y Yield
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
30%Below 4.85%
4.8%5.13%
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
5.04%median
4.99%5.11%
Median 5.04%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
12%5.32%
5.29%5.65%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
5%Below 1.0%
0%4.8%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
40%5.4%
5.3%6.3%
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end? (Dec 31, 2026)
5.26%median
4.49%6.24%
Median 5.26%Middle half 4.89% – 5.59%
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?
5.07%median
4.89%5.25%
Median 5.07%Middle half 5.01% – 5.18%
How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
13%5.32% or above
5.3%5.59%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
5.35%median
5.24%5.54%
Median 5.35%
Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
3%chance▲ 1
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
43%Above .7%
0.6%1.1%
10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026
36.97%median
-40%80%
Median 36.97%Middle half 21% – 54.07%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?
5.22%median
5.09%5.44%
Median 5.22%Middle half 5.18% – 5.26%
What moves it
Fed Decision in October?
87%No change
- No change87%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase12%▼ 2
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed Decision in January?
57%No change
- No change57%▼ 5
- 25 bps increase38%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%▲ 1
- No change19%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%▼ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
9 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
80%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate80%▲ 5
- Hike 25bps15%▲ 2
- Cut >25bps4%▲ 4
- Hike >25bps4%▲ 4
1 more
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 3
CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.23%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.23%Middle half 0.14% – 0.3%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
69%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)69%▲ 2
- 1 (25 bps)20%
- 3 (75 bps)10%
- 4 (100 bps)1%
1 more
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.89%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.79% – 4.06%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
82%chance▲ 1
Core CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
2.88%median
2%3.6%
Median 2.88%Middle half 2.72% – 3%
Core CPI in November (Nov 2026)
0.2%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.2%Middle half 0.12% – 0.27%
Core CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
2.85%median
1.9%3.6%
Median 2.85%Middle half 2.72% – 2.98%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.12%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.12%Middle half 4.04% – 4.21%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
51%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate51%▼ 5
- Hike 25bps43%▲ 21
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Unemployment in October (Oct 2026)
4.15%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.08% – 4.23%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
14%Above 4.5%
4%12%
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
86%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate86%▲ 14
- Cut 25bps7%
- Hike 25bps3%▼ 6
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 7
1 more
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 1
State of the economy at the end of 2026
68%Overheating
- Overheating68%▼ 3
- Soft landing28%▼ 2
- Stagflation2%▲ 1
- Slack / disinflation1%
US Core CPI (Nov 2026)
2.82%median
1.8%3%
Median 2.82%
Headline PCE inflation in September (September 2026)
0.44%median
-0.1%0.8%
Median 0.44%Middle half 0.39% – 0.48%
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
52%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate52%▼ 17
- Cut 25bps40%▲ 35
- Hike 25bps2%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 4
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 7
CPI in December (Dec 2026)
0.16%median
-0.2%1%
Median 0.16%Middle half 0.07% – 0.42%
Core PCE MoM - September 2026
0.33%median
-0.15%0.55%
Median 0.33%Middle half 0.28% – 0.39%
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.51%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.51%Middle half 4.18% – 5.47%
US Unemployment Rate (Jun 2027)
4.1%median
1.8%6.8%
Median 4.1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
65%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps65%▲ 17
- Fed maintains rate28%▼ 3
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 3
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
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