ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
96%No change
- No change96%
- 25 bps increase4%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
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Central banks odds
Every Central banks market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
Trending central banks markets
Bank of Russia decision in October?
88%No Change
- No Change88%▼ 4
- Decrease11%▲ 1
- Increase<1%
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
71%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase71%▲ 56
- No Change28%▼ 56
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of England decision in November?
95%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase95%▲ 2
- No change4%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Israel Decision in October?
99%No Change
- No Change99%▲ 6
- Decrease1%▼ 6
- Increase<1%
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
97%No change
- No change97%
- 25 bps increase3%
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
74%No change
- No change74%▼ 8
- 25 bps increase26%▲ 9
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
7median
57
Median 7Middle half 6 – 7
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
71%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase71%▲ 6
- No change27%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
87%25 bps decrease
- 25 bps decrease87%▼ 4
- No Change9%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
- 25 bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Which central banks will hike before 2027?
95%Bank of England
- Bank of England95%
- Bank of Canada88%▲ 20
- Riksbank78%▼ 9
- Swiss National Bank11%▼ 5
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
77%No change
- No change77%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease19%
- 25 bps increase2%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
54%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase54%▲ 22
- No Change44%▼ 17
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%▼ 1
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Bank of Korea decision in November?
69%25 bps hike
- 25 bps hike69%▲ 21
- No Change26%▼ 9
- 25 bps cut3%
- 50+ bps cut1%
1 more
- 50+ bps hike1%
Bank of Korea decision in October?
97%No Change
- No Change97%▲ 1
- 25 bps hike2%▼ 1
- 25 bps cut<1%
- 50+ bps cut<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps hike<1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
64%No change
- No change64%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease26%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase6%
- 50+ bps decrease2%▼ 1
1 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
46%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase46%▼ 9
- No change42%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase4%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
40%chance▼ 9
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
55%25 bps decrease
- 25 bps decrease55%▲ 2
- 50+ bps decrease20%▼ 6
- No Change19%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase4%
1 more
- 25 bps increase2%
Bank of England decision in December?
60%No change
- No change60%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase28%▲ 4
- 50+ bps increase6%▼ 5
- 25 bps decrease2%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026?
0median
05
Median 0Middle half 0 – 0
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
70%No change
- No change70%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase22%
- 50+ bps increase4%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%▼ 1
Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
57%No change
- No change57%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase23%▼ 11
- 50+ bps increase9%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease7%▼ 1
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease5%
Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
2.52%median
1.38%3.38%
Median 2.52%Middle half 2.4% – 2.64%
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