Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase6%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
The odds
75%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)75%▲ 4
- 1 (25 bps)22%▼ 1
- 3 (75 bps)3%▼ 2
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
How the odds have moved
2 (50 bps): 68% on Oct 20, 75% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (50 bps) | 75% | ▲ 4 | 75¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | $205K |
| 1 (25 bps) | 22% | ▼ 1 | 22¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | $537K |
| 3 (75 bps) | 3% | ▼ 2 | 3¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $186K |
| 4 (100 bps) | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $85.8K | ||
| 5+ (125+ bps) | <1% | 0¢ | $77.7K | |||
| 0 (0 bps) | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $14K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Jeff Sica discusses tech AI spending and Federal Reserve rate expectationsCircle Squared Alternative Investments founder Jeff Sica discusses high-stakes AI spending from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during a busy earnings week on 'Varney & Co.' Sica warns that tech companies must deliver on artificial… -
Federal Reserve expected to tap brakes on rate hikesThe Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday before raising them again in December. The decision would represent a win for the Trump administration, whose allies have urged the central bank against… -
Federal Reserve to announce its latest interest rate move this week. Here's what economists expect.October 26, 2026 / 4:10 PM EDT / CBS News The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet this week, when U.S. central bankers will decide whether to raise interest rates for the second time this year in a bid to subdue inflation. Most economists… -
Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in October. Here's what that means for consumersThe Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting — even as higher energy costs complicate the inflation outlook and put additional pressure on household budgets. The consumer price index, a… -
5 Things to Watch From the Federal Reserve's Next MeetingFederal Reserve policymakers are likely to keep their key interest rate unchanged Wednesday when they finish what may seem like an uneventful meeting 5 Things to Watch From the Federal Reserve's Next Meeting The Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting… -
Hike or Pause? Federal Reserve Kicks Off October Policy MeetingThe Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting on Oct. 27 as officials weigh persistent inflation pressures against signs of a cooling labor market. In September, officials raised interest rates by a quarter point for the first time… -
Bitfinex: Bitcoin Tests $79,250 Support As Upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision LoomsHome > Bitcoin News > Bitfinex: Bitcoin Tests $79,250 Support As Upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision Looms Bitcoin fell to $79,250 last week, recording a 9.3% correction, its steepest pullback since the lows reached in July, according… -
Here's Exactly What Investors Should Look for From the Federal Reserve's October MeetingIt's almost here. On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the federal funds rate, which serves as the basis for other interest rates, such as loan rates and bond yields. That's why so many people are… -
Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto MarketsHome > Markets > Federal Reserve Rate Decision Leads Packed Economic Calendar Impacting Crypto Markets The crypto market faces a week packed with major economic announcements, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision… -
4 Investments That Could Make Sense If the Federal Reserve Raises Interest RatesAfter the Federal Reserve recently decided to raise interest rates to cool an uptick in inflation, much of Wall Street and Main Street are trying to understand what its next move will be. According to a recent CNBC article, the chances of… -
The Federal Reserve is set to hold rates this week: Why a December hike is virtually fully priced anywayThe US Dollar (USD) maintains a well-supported stance across global FX markets as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will keep the Fed funds rate steady at 3.75–4.00% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD)… -
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false…
Related markets
All the fed ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
10 more
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
75%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase75%▼ 1
- No change21%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
4.11%median
2.5%5.5%
Median 4.11%Middle half 4.03% – 4.2%
SOFR for October 26, 2026
3.91%median
3.85%3.92%
Median 3.91%Middle half 3.91% – 3.91%
Fed Decision in January?
68%No change
- No change68%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase28%
- 50+ bps increase2%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions