Bank of Japan rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
96%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate96%
- Hike 25bps3%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
Install
Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
The odds
84%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps84%▲ 14
- Maintain current rate16%▼ 11
- Cut more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
- Cut 25bps<1%▼ 1
- Hike more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Hike 25bps: 70% on Oct 20, 84% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 8 PM ETHike 25bps: 71% → 84%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 84% | ▲ 14 | 84¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 2.9K |
| Maintain current rate | 16% | ▼ 11 | 15¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 860 |
| Cut more than 25bps | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | 179 | |
| Cut 25bps | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | 179 | |
| Hike more than 25bps | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | 273 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Bank of Japan
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Too late to ask, but what changes when the Bank of Japan raises interest rates?—Savings, loans, salaries. Financial news is directly connected to household budgets. An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is a policy that raises interest rates and aims to stabilize prices, thereby influencing economic activity… - Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates to 1.25%, A Three-Decade PeakJapan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan, announced on Friday it would elevate its benchmark interest rate to 1.25%, representing the country’s highest borrowing cost in more than three decades and the institution’s second rate increase…
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What to Watch at the Bank of Japan’s 30 October MeetingFor US investors and anyone exposed to the yen or emerging-market currencies, the real risk is not the rate itself but the guidance that accompanies it. This analysis explains what the Bank of Japan is likely to do at its October meeting… - Bank of Japan warns of risks from AI market shock, cyberattacksBy Leika Kihara and Makiko Yamazaki TOKYO, Oct 23 (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan warned on Friday of rising risks caused by AI, including growing cybersecurity threats and potential market shocks, that could spill over to the country’s…
- Bank of Japan's Himino signals readiness to raise borrowing costsBank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks during an interview with Reuters in Tokyo, Japan, June 28, 2023. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon TOKYO, Oct 21 : Japan's underlying inflation is quite close to the central bank's 2 per cent target…
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Bank of Japan Projected to Maintain Quarterly Rate Hikes to Contain Inflation RisksFormer Bank of Japan executive director Eiji Maeda forecasts a steady pace of interest rate increases, projecting the central bank will reach a neutral rate of 1.75 percent by next spring. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its benchmark… -
The Japanese Yen barely moves as a Bank of Japan deputy talks up inflation riskDeputy Governor Himino said upside risks to inflation remain high and that adjusting policy too late could let them materialise. He described financial conditions as still accommodative, with real interest rates low and bank lending… - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino calls for further rate hikes — Channel NewsAsiaBank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryōzō Himino said the central bank should continue raising interest rates due to high inflation risks. Core inflation in Japan is close to the regulator’s 2% target, while financial conditions remain…
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Bank of Japan seen raising rates to 1.50% in December as tightening pace quickensTraders Union Bank of Japan seen raising rates to 1.50% in December as tightening pace quickens Japan's inflation outlook and currency dynamics are reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan continues raising interest rates before the… - BOJ's Himino: Underlying inflation likely to align with Bank of Japan targetForex Factory This report will be sent to all Website Coordinators and the appropriate action will be taken within 24 hours. The Website Coordinators rely entirely on traders like you to ensure Forex Factory remains a healthy trading…
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Bank of Japan may raise inflation forecast, stand pat on rates, sources sayPeople walking past the headquarters of the Bank of Japan in Tokyo November 17, 2008. REUTERS/Stringer (JAPAN) By Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada TOKYO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan may raise its inflation outlook for the next… -
Japan core inflation in September surges to its highest this year at 2.1%Core inflation, which strips out prices of fresh food, was in line with than the 2.1% forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Japan's core inflation in September hit its highest this year at 2.1%, overshooting analysts' expectations, on…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions