Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 26, 8 PM ETJune 30, 2027: 33% → 43%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
February 28
<1%
0¢
$15.1K
March 31
<1%
0¢
$27K
June 30, 2027
43%
▲ 12
52¢
55¢
$1.82
$164K
July 15
<1%
0¢
$1.6M
September 30
<1%
0¢
$1.5M
December 31
43%
▲ 8
32¢
33¢
$3.03
$1.1M
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Supreme Court of the United States news - Today’s latest updatesCBS News · 3 days agoThe Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The Supreme Court has rejected an effort from the Trump administration to restrict some medical…
Davis v. Federal Election CommissionBrennan Center for Justice · 34 h agoThis case challenges a provision of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA) known as the Millionaire’s Amendment that raises the limits on contributions to congressional candidates if their opponent spends above a threshold…
"Executive Orders and the Ballot Box: Limits of Presidential Power Over Elections" #ELBElection Law Blog · 2 days agoSociety for the Rule of Law recorded webinar with Richard Bernstein, Professor Larry Schwartztol of Harvard Law School, and Bruce V. Spiva, Senior Vice President at the Campaign Legal Center. Gary T. Schwartz Distinguished Professor of Law…
Supreme Court blocks Trump admin’s limits on transgender care for prisonersPOLITICO · 5 days agoThe justices turned down an emergency request to lift an order restoring Biden-era medical and housing policies for transgender inmates. 10/21/2026 12:47 PM EDT The Supreme Court dealt a setback Wednesday to President Donald Trump’s…
Supreme Court declines to let Trump end transgender surgeries for prison inmatesWashington Examiner · 5 days agoWashington Examiner The Supreme Court handed the Trump administration a loss on its emergency docket on Wednesday, declining to lift a lower court’s block on a new regulation for federal prisons that would stop providing inmates with…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
