Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $3.7K today · $1.7M traded · $701K at stake · prices read 28 min ago

The odds

71%Ric Grenell
  • Ric Grenell71%
  • Susie Wiles37%▼ 1
  • Doug Collins31%
  • Amy Gleason30%
  • Pete Hegseth27%
  • Bill Pulte24%
  • Kash Patel18%▲ 1
  • Steve Witkoff18%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins17%
  • Linda McMahon16%▼ 2
  • Howard Lutnick16%
  • Mike Huckabee16%
19 more
  • Peter Navarro14%
  • Tom Homan14%▼ 1
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Scott Turner14%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%
  • John Ratcliffe13%▼ 1
  • Rodney Scott13%
  • Sean Duffy12%▼ 1
  • Jamieson Greer12%
  • Russell Vought12%
  • Steven Cheung12%
  • Brendan Carr11%
  • Stephen Miller11%
  • Mehmet Oz11%▼ 1
  • Doug Burgum11%▼ 3
  • Kelly Loeffler10%
  • Marco Rubio9%▼ 1
  • Scott Bessent6%
  • Lee Zeldin6%

How the odds have moved

Ric Grenell: 67% on Oct 20, 71% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Karoline Leavitt >99% 782.4K
Ric Grenell 71% 70¢ 71¢ $1.41 2.9K
Susie Wiles 37% ▼ 1 36¢ 37¢ $2.70 321.8K
Doug Collins 31% 29¢ 33¢ $3.03 21.6K
Amy Gleason 30% 28¢ 31¢ $3.23 90.0K
Pete Hegseth 27% 26¢ 27¢ $3.70 1.3M
Bill Pulte 24% 23¢ 24¢ $4.17 58.5K
Kash Patel 18% ▲ 1 17¢ 19¢ $5.26 1.3M
Steve Witkoff 18% ▼ 2 17¢ 18¢ $5.56 36.4K
Brooke Rollins 17% 15¢ 19¢ $5.26 13.3K
Linda McMahon 16% ▼ 2 14¢ 18¢ $5.56 24.3K
Howard Lutnick 16% 15¢ 16¢ $6.25 423.6K
Mike Huckabee 16% 15¢ 16¢ $6.25 29.8K
Peter Navarro 14% 13¢ 16¢ $6.25 9.3K
Tom Homan 14% ▼ 1 14¢ 15¢ $6.67 40.7K
Chris Wright 14% 14¢ 15¢ $6.67 51.3K
Scott Turner 14% 13¢ 16¢ $6.25 11.5K
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 13% 12¢ 13¢ $7.69 286.5K
John Ratcliffe 13% ▼ 1 12¢ 13¢ $7.69 20.0K
Rodney Scott 13% 11¢ 14¢ $7.14 3.1K
Sean Duffy 12% ▼ 1 11¢ 13¢ $7.69 23.3K
Jamieson Greer 12% 11¢ 12¢ $8.33 5.4K
Russell Vought 12% 11¢ 12¢ $8.33 10.8K
Steven Cheung 12% 11¢ 12¢ $8.33 7.6K
Brendan Carr 11% 9¢ 12¢ $8.33 8.2K
Stephen Miller 11% 10¢ 11¢ $9.09 130.1K
Mehmet Oz 11% ▼ 1 10¢ 11¢ $9.09 21.9K
Doug Burgum 11% ▼ 3 10¢ 11¢ $9.09 14.6K
Kelly Loeffler 10% 10¢ 11¢ $9.09 7.5K
Marco Rubio 9% ▼ 1 9¢ 9¢ $10.87 179.7K
Scott Bessent 6% 5¢ 8¢ $12.99 99.2K
Lee Zeldin 6% 5¢ 8¢ $12.66 46.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

38%Kristi Noem
  • Kristi Noem38%▼ 11
  • Susie Wiles32%▼ 2
  • Dan Scavino28%▼ 1
  • Markwayne Mullin27%▼ 6
12 more
  • Pete Hegseth22%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan21%▼ 1
  • Russell Vought19%▲ 2
  • Kash Patel17%
  • Howard Lutnick14%▲ 1
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 3
  • David Sacks10%▲ 2
  • Stephen Miller10%▼ 3
  • Lee Zeldin9%▲ 1
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • John Ratcliffe8%▼ 4
  • Marco Rubio7%▼ 1
PolymarketCloses Dec 31 · $640 today · $1.5M traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Ric Grenell, Susie Wiles, Doug Collins

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions