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Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
The odds
98%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 99% on Oct 20, 98% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | 98¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | $819K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterm
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2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump… -
US midterms: The rise of AI election ads in US midterms campaignResearchers say AI ads are being used more than ever in the US midterms campaign ahead of the elections in November. Some of the ads are being funded by outside political groups but they have also come directly from candidates in some key… -
Economic struggles motivate midterm votersCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 7am CBS News Chicago Saturday at 9am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 7am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 10am KDKA News This Morning Saturday… -
Trump casts his midterm ballot early in FloridaWEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at their West… -
Poll: Data center backlash builds as midterms nearA POLITICO Poll shows Americans are increasingly against building data centers near their homes and favor candidates who oppose them more than ones who support them. 10/25/2026 7:00 AM EDT Data centers have become a major risk for the… -
Trump rallies Republicans in Georgia ahead of midtermsFox News' Madison Scarpino reports from Perry, Georgia, where Trump rallies supporters for Republican candidates. Trump rallies Republicans in Georgia ahead of midterms Fox News' Madison Scarpino reports from Perry, Georgia, where Trump… -
Republicans skeptical of polling data ahead of midtermsHouse Majority Leader Steve Scalise discusses the fight for the House majority. Scalise encourages people to 'show up and vote' in order for GOP to hold the House. Republicans skeptical of polling data ahead of midterms House Majority… -
Six states are up for grabs this midterm electionThe 'Fox News Sunday' panel analyzes the latest Fox News Power Rankings and battleground poll numbers. The 'Fox News Sunday' panel analyzes the latest Fox News Power Rankings and battleground poll ... Six states are up for grabs this… -
Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midtermsFox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on the closely watched Ohio Senate and governor races ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midterms Fox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on… -
Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout?Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout? Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' -
Obama attacks Trump during campaign ahead of US midtermsFormer US President Barack Obama spoke to crowds in Ohio while campaigning for the Democrats on Saturday. Read more about Obama campaigning for the Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. -
Key politics at play in the 2026 midtermsCBS News Los Angeles Weekend 8am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 11am Hometown High Q Classics CBS News Texas 9am
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions