Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Polymarket Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31 · $4.2K today · $528K traded · $12K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

The odds

28%Stefan Brodie
  • Stefan Brodie28%▲ 13
  • Ryan Salame13%▲ 1
  • Donald Brodie9%▼ 7
  • Keonne Rodriguez9%▼ 3
  • Steve Bannon8%▲ 2
  • Matt Gaetz7%▲ 1
  • Daniel Penny6%▼ 1
  • Joe Exotic6%
  • Roger Ver5%
  • Elizabeth Holmes5%
  • Diddy5%
  • Ghislaine Maxwell4%
16 more
  • Nicolas Maduro4%
  • Himself4%▼ 1
  • Bob Menendez4%
  • Sam Bankman-Fried4%
  • Edward Snowden4%
  • Julian Assange4%
  • Roger Stone3%
  • Derek Chauvin3%
  • Martin Shkreli3%
  • Antoine Massey3%
  • Do Kwon3%
  • Elon Musk3%
  • Andrew Tate3%
  • Young Thug2%
  • Eric Adams2%▼ 1
  • Hunter Biden2%

How the odds have moved

Stefan Brodie: 21% on Oct 20, 28% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Stefan Brodie 28% ▲ 13 8¢ 49¢ $2.04 $3.6K
Ryan Salame 13% ▲ 1 11¢ 14¢ $7.14 $34.3K
Donald Brodie 9% ▼ 7 8¢ 10¢ $10.00 $17.8K
Keonne Rodriguez 9% ▼ 3 8¢ 9¢ $11.11 $19.7K
Steve Bannon 8% ▲ 2 7¢ 10¢ $10.53 $12.9K
Matt Gaetz 7% ▲ 1 6¢ 8¢ $12.50 $8K
Daniel Penny 6% ▼ 1 3¢ 10¢ $10.20 $1.2K
Joe Exotic 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 $5.7K
Roger Ver 5% 5¢ 6¢ $17.86 $3.2K
Elizabeth Holmes 5% 5¢ 5¢ $20.00 $6.6K
Diddy 5% 4¢ 5¢ $19.23 $34.1K
Ghislaine Maxwell 4% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 $28.9K
Nicolas Maduro 4% 4¢ 4¢ $25.00 $10.6K
Himself 4% ▼ 1 4¢ 4¢ $25.64 $22.9K
Bob Menendez 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.39 $295
Sam Bankman-Fried 4% 4¢ 4¢ $25.64 $145K
Edward Snowden 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.64 $3.3K
Julian Assange 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 $4.5K
Roger Stone 3% 2¢ 5¢ $20.83 $11.6K
Derek Chauvin 3% 3¢ 4¢ $27.03 $28.3K
Martin Shkreli 3% 2¢ 4¢ $23.81 $31.6K
Antoine Massey 3% 1¢ 5¢ $21.74 $2.5K
Do Kwon 3% 3¢ 3¢ $33.33 $23.7K
Elon Musk 3% 2¢ 3¢ $30.30 $53.1K
Andrew Tate 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.64 $1.7K
Young Thug 2% 1¢ 4¢ $26.32 $5.3K
Eric Adams 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 3¢ $29.41 $1.9K
Hunter Biden 2% 1¢ 4¢ $27.78 $5.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Who will Trump pardon in 2026?

26%Michael Cohen
  • Michael Cohen26%▲ 1
  • Larry Householder18%▲ 1
  • Nicole Daedone13%
  • Rachel Cherwitz11%
32 more
  • Keonne Rodriguez11%▼ 2
  • Josh Wander11%
  • John Kiriakou10%▲ 2
  • Kimberly Guilfoyle10%
  • Joseph Maldonado9%
  • Robin Smith9%▲ 1
  • Leonard Glenn Francis9%▼ 1
  • Sean Combs8%
  • Elizabeth Holmes8%
  • Tal Alexander7%
  • Tim Leissner7%
  • Torence Hatch7%
  • Jared Kushner6%
  • Steve Bannon6%
  • Ghislaine Maxwell6%▼ 1
  • Kenneth Petty6%
  • Matt Borges6%
  • Martin Shkreli6%
  • Bill Hwang6%
  • Braden John Karony6%
  • Roger Ver5%▼ 1
  • Bob Menendez5%
  • Jho Low5%
  • Eric Adams5%▼ 1
  • Sam Bankman-Fried5%
  • Aimee Bock4%
  • Donald Trump4%▼ 1
  • Edward Snowden4%
  • Julian Assange4%
  • Nicolás Maduro4%
  • Charlie Javice4%
  • Derek Chauvin3%
KalshiCloses Jan 1, 2027 · $90 today · $36.9K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Stefan Brodie, Ryan Salame, Donald Brodie

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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85%Vladimir Putin
  • Vladimir Putin85%▼ 2
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.