Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
97%chance▼ 1
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María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
The odds
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
How the odds have moved
October 31: 3% on Oct 20, >99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 2 PM ETOctober 31: 12% → >99%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 9 | <1% | 0¢ | $264K | |||
| January 31 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $2.6M | ||
| March 8 | <1% | 0¢ | ||||
| March 31 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $2M | ||
| April 30 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $733K | ||
| May 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $2K | |||
| June 30 | <1% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | $100.00 | $315K | |
| July 31 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $298K | ||
| August 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $10.7K | |||
| September 30 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $87.9K | ||
| October 15 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $20.8K | ||
| October 31 | >99% | ▲ 89 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $191K | |
| December 31 | >99% | ▲ 67 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $169K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Venezuela, Maduro, María Corina Machado
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Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado returns from exileVenezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado returns home after 10 months abroad, in a move that could challenge the country's interim leadership. Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado returns… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela from exile for first time since Maduro’s ousterNobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado reemerged from exile in Venezuela on Sunday for the first time since late last year, when she fled due to fears about her safety. Machado, who had been banned from running for… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado makes surprise return home after nearly a year abroadVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado joins Rachel Campos-Duffy in Panama to warn Americans about the dangers of socialism ahead of the midterms. Machado shares a direct message to President Donald Trump, praising his… -
Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado returns after months in exileCARACAS, Venezuela — Opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado reappeared in Venezuela Sunday for the first time since December, about a month before the U.S. military deposed the country's then-President Nicolás Maduro… -
Venezuela opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to country after 10-month exileOctober 25, 2026 / 12:57 PM EDT / CBS News Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado is back in her home country after nearly a year in exile, her team confirmed to CBS News on Sunday. "I am here. With you,"… -
Venezuelans in South Florida weigh Maria Corina Machado's return and what comes next for the countryOctober 25, 2026 / 8:11 PM EDT / CBS Miami Patrons at a Venezuelan restaurant in South Florida gathered Sunday to discuss news of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado's return to Venezuela, weighing questions about the country's future… -
South Florida Venezuelans react to Maria Corina Machado's return to the country after hiatusCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm CBS13 News Weekend 5pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Regresa María Corina Machado a Venezuela tras exilioMaría Corina Machado, líder opositora venezolana y Premio Nobel de la Paz, anunció su regreso a dicho país tras casi un año de exilio. Caracas, Venezuela (25 octubre 2026) .-10:05 hrs María Corina Machado, líder opositora venezolana y… -
Photos of María Corina Machado’s return to Venezuela as supporters welcome opposition leaderSupporters greet María Corina Machado in Venezuela as she returns after months in exile. The opposition leader left in December to receive the Nobel Peace Prize in Norway after nearly a year in... Supporters greet María Corina Machado in… -
Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado returns to VenezuelaVenezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has returned to the South American nation after nearly a year outside the country, she said on social media on Sunday. “I’m here. With you all,” the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Machado wrote… -
Opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela — and sparks hope for electionsAfter almost a year in exile — and having repeated attempts to return reportedly blocked by President Donald Trump — popular democratic opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado is now back in Venezuela, raising… -
Exiled Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado returns to VenezuelaVenezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has returned to Venezuela after ten months in exile. She announced the news on her X account on Sunday, writing in Spanish: “I am here. With you.” Her return poses a challenge to the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions