Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $5 today · $6K traded · $4.1K at stake · prices read 14 min ago

The odds

44%The Black Ball

The Black Ball44%
The Invite25%▲ 1
The Odyssey18%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary4%
Wildwood3%
Dune: Part Three3%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth2%
Clarissa2%
Saturn Return2%
The Social Reckoning2%
Toy Story 52%
All of a Sudden2%

3 more

The Whisper Man2%
Cry to Heaven2%
Ink2%

How the odds have moved

The Black Ball: 43% on Oct 20, 44% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
The Black Ball	44%		44¢	48¢	$2.08	6.9K
The Invite	25%	▲ 1	25¢	26¢	$3.85	5.0K
The Odyssey	18%	▲ 1	18¢	20¢	$5.00	5.6K
Project Hail Mary	4%		1¢	8¢	$12.50	2.0K
Wildwood	3%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	1.6K
Dune: Part Three	3%		2¢	5¢	$20.00	2.0K
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth	2%			6¢	$16.67	2.0K
Clarissa	2%			4¢	$25.00	1.0K
Saturn Return	2%			4¢	$25.00	1.0K
The Social Reckoning	2%			4¢	$25.00	1.1K
Toy Story 5	2%			4¢	$25.00	1.2K
All of a Sudden	2%			4¢	$25.00	1.0K
The Whisper Man	2%			4¢	$25.00	1.0K
Cry to Heaven	2%			4¢	$25.00	1.0K
Ink	2%			4¢	$25.00	1.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay (2027)The Black BallKalshi 44%Polymarket 46%2 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

46%The Black Ball

The Black Ball46%
The Invite24%▲ 1
The Odyssey20%
All of a Sudden6%▲ 2

11 more

Project Hail Mary2%
The Social Reckoning1%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth1%
Ink1%
Saturn Return1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Toy Story 5<1%
Clarissa<1%
The Whisper Man<1%
Dune: Part Three<1%
Wildwood<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Adapted Screenplay

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Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

45%The Odyssey

The Odyssey45%
You Can See Everything28%▼ 3
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three6%
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

95%The Odyssey

The Odyssey95%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three75%▼ 17
Project Hail Mary63%▼ 1

6 more

Fatherland45%
Werwulf34%▼ 4
Digger34%▲ 6
Obsession16%▼ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%▲ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut76%▼ 1
You Can See Everything75%▼ 1
The Invite62%▲ 1
I Play Rocky59%▲ 10
Fjord36%▼ 1
All of a Sudden36%▼ 2
Elsinore32%▲ 2
Obsession31%▼ 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth24%▲ 1
Behemoth!22%▲ 5
Digger19%
Michael13%▲ 2
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Fatherland5%
Disclosure Day5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▲ 1

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Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

88%The Odyssey

The Odyssey88%▲ 10
The Black Ball79%▲ 11
Dune: Part Three75%▲ 3

9 more

Sense and Sensibility61%▼ 2
I Love Boosters54%▼ 7
Werwulf48%▲ 1
The Devil Wears Prada 243%▼ 2
Michael40%▲ 3
Wuthering Heights38%▲ 6
Wild Horse Nine28%▲ 8
Digger26%▼ 18
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 1

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Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations

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The Baddest Speechwriter of All86%▲ 22
One Last Order56%▼ 2
Oh Whale53%▲ 9

7 more

Water Cooler46%▲ 19
A Derailment43%▲ 1
Listen36%▲ 8
We're Fine32%▲ 5
The Tuners26%▼ 26
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil24%▼ 1
A Wolf in the Suburbs20%▲ 3

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton70%▼ 6

15 more

Tao Okamoto61%▼ 1
Amanda Seyfried43%▼ 3
Kate O'Flynn41%
Olivia Colman32%▲ 1
Mariana di Girolamo28%▼ 1
Sandra Hüller25%▼ 1
Parker Posey21%▼ 1
Merritt Wever18%
Gemma Chan9%▼ 3
Zendaya8%▲ 2
Danielle Deadwyler8%▼ 4
Betty Gilpin6%▲ 1
Isabella Rossellini5%
Margaret Qualley5%▲ 1
Inde Navarrette1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$6K (33,548 contracts)

Today$5

This week$124

At stake$4.1K

In the news28 headlines today, 329 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Clarissa has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions