Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $11.9K today · $173K traded · $48.7K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine92%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three88%▼ 1
You Can See Everything80%▲ 5
The Debut76%
Project Hail Mary72%▼ 5
The Invite64%▲ 2
I Play Rocky53%▼ 1
All of a Sudden38%▼ 1
Fjord36%▼ 1
Elsinore33%▲ 3

10 more

Obsession31%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth22%
Digger21%▲ 2
Behemoth!17%▲ 2
Michael12%▼ 2
Disclosure Day5%
Avengers: Doomsday5%▼ 2
Fatherland4%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%

How the odds have moved

The Odyssey: 97% on Oct 20, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
The Odyssey	98%		96¢	99¢		$3.9K
La Bola Negra	96%	▲ 1	94¢	97¢	$1.03	$5.1K
Wild Horse Nine	92%	▲ 1	90¢	93¢	$1.08	$7K
Dune: Part Three	88%	▼ 1	86¢	89¢	$1.12	$19.7K
You Can See Everything	80%	▲ 5	79¢	81¢	$1.23	$37.9K
The Debut	76%		75¢	76¢	$1.32	$4.6K
Project Hail Mary	72%	▼ 5	70¢	74¢	$1.35	$4.7K
The Invite	64%	▲ 2	63¢	65¢	$1.54	$9.4K
I Play Rocky	53%	▼ 1	50¢	55¢	$1.82	$5K
All of a Sudden	38%	▼ 1	36¢	39¢	$2.56	$2.2K
Fjord	36%	▼ 1	34¢	37¢	$2.70	$5.2K
Elsinore	33%	▲ 3	30¢	35¢	$2.86	$895
Obsession	31%		30¢	32¢	$3.13	$5.5K
The Adventures of Cliff Booth	22%		21¢	23¢	$4.35	$7.8K
Digger	21%	▲ 2	20¢	21¢	$4.76	$21.3K
Behemoth!	17%	▲ 2	16¢	18¢	$5.56	$942
Michael	12%	▼ 2	10¢	13¢	$7.69	$2.3K
Disclosure Day	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.39	$12K
Avengers: Doomsday	5%	▼ 2	3¢	7¢	$14.71	$5.9K
Fatherland	4%		1¢	8¢	$13.33	$2.3K
The Drama	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.95	$747
The Social Reckoning	2%		1¢	4¢	$27.03	$8.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)You Can See EverythingKalshi 84%Polymarket 80%4 pts apart

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%▼ 1
The Black Ball95%
Wild Horse Nine91%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three84%▲ 1

49 more

You Can See Everything84%▲ 4
The Debut75%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary73%▼ 4
The Invite64%▲ 2
Artificial55%▼ 1
I Play Rocky53%▼ 5
All of a Sudden36%▼ 2
Fjord35%▲ 1
Obsession33%▼ 1
Elsinore32%▲ 2
Wildwood28%▲ 3
Digger23%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%▲ 1
Club Kid21%▼ 2
Being Heumann18%▼ 1
Possible Love17%
Behemoth14%▼ 1
Michael11%▼ 1
Primetime10%
Josephine9%▲ 2
Ink8%
Sense and Sensibility6%
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother5%▼ 2
Saturn Return5%▼ 1
Paper Tiger5%▲ 1
The Drama4%
1949 / Fatherland4%▲ 1
Minotaur4%▼ 1
The Whisper Man4%▲ 1
Clarissa4%
Misty Green4%▼ 1
Disclosure Day3%
Werwulf3%
Parallel Tales3%
Rose3%
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
The Death of Robin Hood3%
Backrooms3%
The Entertainment System Is Down2%
Cry to Heaven2%▼ 1
Hope2%
I Love Boosters2%
Jack of Spades2%
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew1%▼ 1
The Social Reckoning1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Picture Nominations

Search ›

WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning ActorWrestling Inc. · 37 h agoFormer World Heavyweight and Undisputed Champion Drew McIntyre says this renowned actor wants to join forces with him in the WWE. WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning Actor Once he comes back, WWE…
Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the WarStanford University · 2 days agoStanford University Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the War Join us for a film screening of Lithuania's submission for the Academy Awards with commentary from Maarja…
Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 5 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
Will Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s ‘You Can See Everything’ Score a Best Picture Nomination? Not If Oscar History Is Any Guide - IMDbIMDb · 6 days agoWill Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s ‘You Can See Everything’ Score a Best Picture Nomination? Not If Oscar History Is Any Guide IMDb
Universal’s Highest Rated Movie of 2026 Officially Releases on Digital Before The OdysseyFandomWire · 43 h agoUniversal had a phenomenal 2026, especially with the blockbuster success of The Odyssey. While Christopher Nolan’s epic ruled the box office, the tag of the highest-rated movie this year actually goes to Forgotten Island. Produced by…
Comcast Q3: Record-Breaking ‘The Odyssey’, Profitable Peacock Fuel NBCU Spinoff MomentumDeadline · 5 days agoOdysseus and his intrepid crew sailed through Comcast’s latest quarter as Universal surpassed $5 billion at the global box office, led by the The Odyssey, now Universal’s highest-grossing film of all time. The Christopher Nolan smash based…
‘You Can See Everything’ Is Closing In on ‘The Odyssey’ in the Best Picture Race, and It Could Make Oscar HistoryComic Basics · 4 days agoAwards season usually builds slowly, with a frontrunner emerging in the summer and rivals chipping away through the fall. This year the Best Picture odds have taken a wild turn. A race that looked like a coronation for one of the year’s…
Dune 3 Pre-sales Outpace The Odyssey, Signaling Potential Record-Breaking North American DebutZoom TV · 3 days agoZoom TV | Entertainment Dune 3 is scheduled for theatrical release on December 18. While the current pre-sales data provides a strong foundation for a record-breaking performance, the industry will continue to monitor ticket velocity to…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 5 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
‘The Odyssey’ Artisans Talk Bringing Christopher Nolan’s Epic to Life With Practical Sets and Thousands of Costumes at Middleburg Film FestVariety · 5 days agoWhen Christopher Nolan gathered his team of artisans for his adaptation of Homer’s epic poem “The Odyssey” he first told production designer Ruth De Jong of his plans. But the process was shrouded in secrecy because working with Nolan is…
An ‘odyssey’ in the making: The grand opening of College Square at SquareFestThe Red & Black · 2 days agoMayor of Athens-Clarke County Kelly Girtz opened the ribbon cutting ceremony by addressing attendees on stage. “This has taken an odyssey to get here, but for every odyssey, you find success at the end of the journey, and this moment is no…
Elon Musk actually follows through on Grok AI adaptation of 'The Odyssey'Mashable · 2 days agoElon Musk doesn’t have a great track record of following through on his promises. According to MuskOmeter, a site that tracks the pledges Musk has made and whether he’s kept them, he’s at about a 24 percent hit rate. So it’s almost…

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

50%The Odyssey

The Odyssey50%▲ 2
You Can See Everything25%▼ 3
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three6%▲ 1
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

90%Matt Damon

Matt Damon90%▼ 1
John Malkovich88%▲ 2
Andrew Scott85%▼ 1

16 more

Tom Cruise60%▲ 11
Anthony Ippolito49%▲ 3
John Turturro46%▼ 2
Ryan Gosling45%▼ 1
Robert Pattinson35%▼ 9
Sebastian Stan18%▼ 1
Jaafar Jackson18%
Pedro Pascal17%▲ 1
Timothée Chalamet14%▲ 3
Sam Rockwell6%
Josh O'Connor5%
Adam Driver5%▲ 1
Brad Pitt4%
Javier Bardem4%▼ 1
Robert Aramayo2%▼ 1
Jeremy Strong2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations

90%La Nieve - The Black Ball

La Nieve - The Black Ball90%▼ 1
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut76%
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 569%▼ 11

8 more

By Any Means - By Any Means66%▲ 1
When I'm Home - The Odyssey54%▲ 12
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad35%▲ 6
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 233%▲ 8
Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk32%▲ 3
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!12%▼ 20
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn6%▲ 5
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

92%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti92%
Andrew Garfield78%
Sam Rockwell78%▲ 11

23 more

John Leguizamo58%▼ 12
Guitarricadelafuente55%▼ 18
Edward Norton49%▼ 9
Robert Pattinson30%▼ 6
Colman Domingo19%▼ 7
Riz Ahmed18%
Steve Buscemi16%▼ 4
John Goodman13%
Skyler Gisondo9%
Miles Teller7%
James Ortiz7%
Guy Pearce6%▼ 1
Antonio Banderas5%▼ 1
Channing Tatum5%
Adam Scott5%
Himesh Patel5%▼ 1
Jeremy Strong4%▼ 6
Michael Fassbender4%▼ 8
Charles Melton4%▲ 1
Daniel Craig4%
Tom Holland4%
Jesse Plemons3%
Robert De Niro3%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations

96%The Black Ball

The Black Ball96%
The Odyssey86%▲ 1
Digger70%▲ 9

8 more

Project Hail Mary69%▲ 6
Dune: Part Three62%▼ 2
Sense and Sensibility42%▲ 13
Werwulf39%▼ 7
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth27%▲ 7
Wuthering Heights18%▲ 4
Backrooms18%
Wildwood4%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations

98%Project Hail Mary

Project Hail Mary98%
Dune: Part Three91%▲ 22
The Odyssey90%▲ 8

11 more

The End of Oak Street65%▲ 55
The Black Ball48%
Werwulf42%
Godzilla Minus Zero36%▲ 10
Whalefall34%
The Mosquito Bowl32%
Behemoth!30%▲ 2
Michael24%▲ 2
Disclosure Day17%▲ 2
Digger11%▲ 4
The Debut6%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMar 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$173K

Today$11.9K

This week$42.6K

At stake$48.7K

In the news13 headlines today, 280 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions