Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $50 today · $44.4K traded · $6.8K at stake · prices read 80 min ago

The odds

46%The Black Ball
  • The Black Ball46%
  • The Invite22%▼ 2
  • The Odyssey21%
  • All of a Sudden4%▲ 1
  • Project Hail Mary2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%
  • The Adventures of Cliff Booth1%
  • Ink1%
  • Saturn Return1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Toy Story 5<1%
  • Clarissa<1%
3 more
  • The Whisper Man<1%
  • Dune: Part Three<1%
  • Wildwood<1%

How the odds have moved

The Black Ball: 51% on Oct 20, 46% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
The Black Ball 46% 46¢ 48¢ $2.08 $24.8K
The Invite 22% ▼ 2 22¢ 24¢ $4.17 $6.8K
The Odyssey 21% 20¢ 24¢ $4.17 $4.3K
All of a Sudden 4% ▲ 1 0¢ 8¢ $11.90 $989
Project Hail Mary 2% 1¢ 3¢ $30.30 $772
The Social Reckoning 1% 1¢ 2¢ $43.48 $465
The Adventures of Cliff Booth 1% 0¢ 2¢ $52.63 $754
Ink 1% 0¢ 1¢ $100.00 $1.8K
Saturn Return 1% 0¢ 1¢ $100.00 $542
Cry to Heaven <1% 0¢ 1¢ $421
Toy Story 5 <1% 0¢ 1¢ $543
Clarissa <1% 0¢ 1¢ $382
The Whisper Man <1% 0¢ 1¢ $407
Dune: Part Three <1% 0¢ 0¢ $658
Wildwood <1% 0¢ 0¢ $793

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay (2027)

44%The Black Ball
  • The Black Ball44%
  • The Invite24%
  • The Odyssey18%
  • Project Hail Mary4%
11 more
  • Wildwood3%
  • Dune: Part Three3%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth2%
  • Clarissa2%
  • Saturn Return2%
  • The Social Reckoning2%
  • Toy Story 52%
  • All of a Sudden2%
  • The Whisper Man2%
  • Cry to Heaven2%
  • Ink2%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2027 · $5 today · $5.9K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Adapted Screenplay

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All awards ›

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey48%▲ 4
  • You Can See Everything28%
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

99%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey99%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball95%▲ 1
  • Wild Horse Nine91%
50 more
  • Dune: Part Three83%
  • You Can See Everything81%▲ 1
  • Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
  • The Debut74%
  • The Invite62%▲ 1
  • I Play Rocky58%▲ 1
  • Artificial55%▼ 2
  • All of a Sudden38%▲ 1
  • Fjord35%
  • Obsession34%▲ 1
  • Elsinore30%▲ 1
  • Wildwood28%▲ 2
  • Digger23%▲ 1
  • Club Kid23%▲ 1
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%▼ 1
  • Being Heumann17%▼ 1
  • Possible Love17%▲ 1
  • Behemoth16%
  • Michael12%
  • Primetime10%
  • Ink8%▲ 2
  • Josephine7%▲ 1
  • Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother7%▼ 1
  • Sense and Sensibility6%
  • Saturn Return5%▼ 1
  • The Drama4%
  • Paper Tiger4%
  • Minotaur4%▼ 1
  • The Whisper Man4%
  • Clarissa4%
  • Misty Green4%
  • Disclosure Day3%▲ 1
  • Werwulf3%▼ 3
  • Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
  • Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
  • Parallel Tales3%
  • 1949 / Fatherland3%
  • Rose3%
  • The Uprising3%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
  • The Death of Robin Hood3%
  • Backrooms3%▲ 1
  • The Entertainment System Is Down2%
  • Hope2%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
  • I Love Boosters2%
  • Jack of Spades2%
  • Tony2%
  • Bucking Fastard2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner

53%La Nieve - The Black Ball
  • La Nieve - The Black Ball53%▼ 1
  • This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut26%▲ 12
  • I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 512%▼ 3
8 more
  • Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk5%▼ 2
  • Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 21%▲ 1
  • Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!1%
  • By Any Means - By Any Means<1%
  • When I'm Home - The Odyssey<1%
  • Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn<1%
  • How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad<1%
  • Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights<1%

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

98%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan98%▲ 1
  • Javier Calvo89%
  • Martin McDonagh71%
24 more
  • Nathan Fielder65%▲ 1
  • Denis Villeneuve58%
  • Olivia Wilde50%
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%▼ 1
  • Cristian Mungiu28%
  • Jesse Eisenberg21%▼ 3
  • Phil Lord12%▼ 1
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu11%▲ 1
  • Mike Leigh11%
  • Curry Barker10%▼ 1
  • Christopher Miller9%
  • David Fincher9%▲ 2
  • Paweł Pawlikowski8%▼ 1
  • Tony Gilroy7%▼ 1
  • Steven Spielberg6%▼ 1
  • Ben Affleck5%▲ 3
  • Andrew Haigh5%
  • Joel Coen5%
  • Na Hong-jin4%
  • Greta Gerwig4%
  • Beth de Araujo4%
  • Danny Boyle3%
  • Janus Metz Pedersen3%
  • James Ashcroft2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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