Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $335 today · $251K traded · $28.6K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

The odds

41%John Malkovich

John Malkovich41%
Andrew Scott18%▼ 1
Matt Damon17%▲ 1
Tom Cruise12%▲ 1
Robert Pattinson4%
Timothée Chalamet4%▲ 1
John Turturro2%
Ryan Gosling1%
Jeremy Strong1%
Yura Borisov1%
Jaafar Jackson<1%
Anthony Ippolito<1%

10 more

Sebastian Stan<1%
Brad Pitt<1%
Pedro Pascal<1%
Adam Driver<1%
Javier Bardem<1%
Josh O'Connor<1%
Robert Aramayo<1%
Sam Rockwell<1%
Mahershala Ali<1%
Guy Pearce<1%

How the odds have moved

John Malkovich: 40% on Oct 20, 41% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
John Malkovich	41%		41¢	42¢	$2.36	$23.7K
Andrew Scott	18%	▼ 1	17¢	20¢	$5.00	$25.7K
Matt Damon	17%	▲ 1	17¢	19¢	$5.26	$46.5K
Tom Cruise	12%	▲ 1	11¢	13¢	$7.69	$30.5K
Robert Pattinson	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.41	$12.8K
Timothée Chalamet	4%	▲ 1	3¢	5¢	$20.00	$11.4K
John Turturro	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	$9.9K
Ryan Gosling	1%		1¢	1¢	$90.91	$9.3K
Jeremy Strong	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$10.6K
Yura Borisov	1%		0¢	1¢		$3.6K
Jaafar Jackson	<1%		0¢	1¢		$7.7K
Anthony Ippolito	<1%		0¢	0¢		$2K
Sebastian Stan	<1%		0¢	0¢		$5.9K
Brad Pitt	<1%		0¢	0¢		$13.5K
Pedro Pascal	<1%		0¢	0¢		$6.1K
Adam Driver	<1%		0¢	0¢		$5K
Javier Bardem	<1%		0¢	0¢		$5.5K
Josh O'Connor	<1%		0¢	0¢		$4.8K
Robert Aramayo	<1%		0¢	0¢		$6.5K
Sam Rockwell	<1%		0¢	0¢		$9.5K
Mahershala Ali	<1%			0¢		$87
Guy Pearce	<1%			0¢		$87

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar Winner: Best Actor (2027)Tom CruiseKalshi 9%Polymarket 12%2 pts apart

Oscar Winner: Best Actor (2027)

42%John Malkovich

John Malkovich42%
Andrew Scott20%
Matt Damon15%
Tom Cruise9%

21 more

Timothée Chalamet2%
Anthony Ippolito2%▲ 1
Ryan Gosling1%
Robert Pattinson1%▼ 1
Josh O'Connor<1%
Charles Melton<1%
Channing Tatum<1%
Sebastian Stan<1%
Keanu Reeves<1%
Adam Driver<1%
Brad Pitt<1%
Tie<1%
Hanns Zischler<1%
Jaafar Jackson<1%
Jeremy Strong<1%
Sacha Baron Cohen<1%
Jacob Tremblay<1%
Ethan Hawke<1%
Pedro Pascal<1%
Tom Holland<1%
Yura Borisov<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Actor

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Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

44%The Odyssey

The Odyssey44%▼ 1
You Can See Everything27%▼ 4
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three6%
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

95%The Odyssey

The Odyssey95%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three80%▼ 12
Project Hail Mary61%▼ 4

6 more

Fatherland45%
Digger35%▲ 8
Werwulf35%▼ 3
Obsession19%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%▼ 2

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%▼ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut76%▼ 1
You Can See Everything75%▼ 1
The Invite62%▲ 1
I Play Rocky59%▲ 11
All of a Sudden38%▼ 1
Fjord34%▼ 3
Obsession31%▼ 1
Elsinore29%▼ 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth25%▲ 2
Behemoth!22%▲ 7
Digger19%
Michael13%▲ 2
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning3%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations

75%The Baddest Speechwriter of All

The Baddest Speechwriter of All75%▲ 11
One Last Order56%▲ 1
Oh Whale53%▲ 9

7 more

Water Cooler48%▲ 21
A Derailment43%▲ 1
Listen41%▲ 13
The Tuners35%▼ 2
We're Fine32%▲ 5
A Wolf in the Suburbs20%▲ 6
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil14%▼ 11

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

72%The Odyssey

The Odyssey72%▼ 7
Dune: Part Three72%
The Black Ball65%▼ 3

9 more

Sense and Sensibility57%▼ 8
I Love Boosters54%▲ 1
Werwulf48%▲ 1
The Devil Wears Prada 244%▲ 3
Michael38%▲ 4
Wuthering Heights33%
Wild Horse Nine28%▲ 8
Digger27%▲ 7
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton74%▼ 3

15 more

Tao Okamoto61%▼ 1
Amanda Seyfried43%▼ 3
Kate O'Flynn41%▲ 1
Olivia Colman32%
Mariana di Girolamo28%▼ 3
Sandra Hüller25%▲ 2
Parker Posey20%▼ 1
Merritt Wever18%
Gemma Chan9%▼ 4
Zendaya8%▲ 1
Danielle Deadwyler8%▼ 4
Betty Gilpin6%▲ 2
Margaret Qualley5%▲ 2
Isabella Rossellini5%
Inde Navarrette1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$251K

Today$335

This week$26.5K

At stake$28.6K

In the news18 headlines today, 314 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name c

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions