Oscar Winner: Best Actor (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $466 today · $136K traded · $94.6K at stake · prices read 28 min ago

The odds

41%John Malkovich
  • John Malkovich41%▼ 1
  • Andrew Scott20%
  • Matt Damon15%
  • Tom Cruise9%
  • Timothée Chalamet2%
  • Anthony Ippolito2%▼ 1
  • Ryan Gosling1%
  • Robert Pattinson1%▼ 1
  • Josh O'Connor<1%
  • Charles Melton<1%
  • Channing Tatum<1%
  • Sebastian Stan<1%
13 more
  • Keanu Reeves<1%
  • Adam Driver<1%
  • Brad Pitt<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • Hanns Zischler<1%
  • Jaafar Jackson<1%
  • Jeremy Strong<1%
  • Sacha Baron Cohen<1%
  • Jacob Tremblay<1%
  • Ethan Hawke<1%
  • Pedro Pascal<1%
  • Tom Holland<1%
  • Yura Borisov<1%

How the odds have moved

John Malkovich: 41% on Oct 20, 41% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
John Malkovich 41% ▼ 1 41¢ 42¢ $2.38 130.7K
Andrew Scott 20% 20¢ 21¢ $4.76 109.5K
Matt Damon 15% 15¢ 16¢ $6.25 173.9K
Tom Cruise 9% 9¢ 10¢ $10.00 227.7K
Timothée Chalamet 2% 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 99.0K
Anthony Ippolito 2% ▼ 1 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 74.2K
Ryan Gosling 1% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 61.1K
Robert Pattinson 1% ▼ 1 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 129.9K
Josh O'Connor <1% 1¢ $100.00 4.3K
Charles Melton <1% 1¢ $100.00 606
Channing Tatum <1% 1¢ $100.00 3.3K
Sebastian Stan <1% 1¢ $100.00 25.8K
Keanu Reeves <1% 1¢ $100.00 1.5K
Adam Driver <1% 1¢ $100.00 15.2K
Brad Pitt <1% 1¢ $100.00 42.6K
Tie <1% 1¢ $100.00 43.3K
Hanns Zischler <1% 1¢ $100.00 245
Jaafar Jackson <1% 1¢ $100.00 64.9K
Jeremy Strong <1% 1¢ $100.00 70.4K
Sacha Baron Cohen <1% 1¢ $100.00 684
Jacob Tremblay <1% 1¢ $100.00 300
Ethan Hawke <1% 1¢ $100.00 6.4K
Pedro Pascal <1% 1¢ $100.00 57.3K
Tom Holland <1% 1¢ $100.00 25.6K
Yura Borisov <1% 1¢ $100.00 1.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

40%John Malkovich
  • John Malkovich40%▼ 1
  • Andrew Scott18%▲ 1
  • Matt Damon17%▼ 1
  • Tom Cruise12%▲ 1
18 more
  • Robert Pattinson4%
  • Timothée Chalamet4%
  • John Turturro1%
  • Ryan Gosling1%
  • Jeremy Strong1%
  • Yura Borisov1%
  • Jaafar Jackson<1%
  • Anthony Ippolito<1%
  • Sebastian Stan<1%
  • Brad Pitt<1%
  • Pedro Pascal<1%
  • Adam Driver<1%
  • Javier Bardem<1%
  • Josh O'Connor<1%
  • Robert Aramayo<1%
  • Sam Rockwell<1%
  • Mahershala Ali<1%
  • Guy Pearce<1%
PolymarketCloses Jun 30, 2027 · $170 today · $251K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Actor

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Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey48%▲ 4
  • You Can See Everything27%▼ 3
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

99%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey99%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball95%
  • Wild Horse Nine91%
50 more
  • Dune: Part Three83%
  • You Can See Everything80%
  • Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
  • The Debut74%
  • The Invite62%▲ 2
  • I Play Rocky57%▼ 1
  • Artificial55%▲ 1
  • All of a Sudden37%
  • Fjord35%
  • Obsession33%
  • Elsinore30%▲ 2
  • Wildwood26%▼ 5
  • Digger23%
  • Club Kid22%▼ 2
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%▼ 1
  • Being Heumann18%▲ 1
  • Possible Love17%▲ 1
  • Behemoth16%
  • Michael12%
  • Primetime10%
  • Ink8%▲ 2
  • Josephine7%▲ 1
  • Sense and Sensibility6%
  • Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother6%▼ 1
  • Saturn Return5%
  • Minotaur4%
  • Misty Green4%▲ 1
  • The Drama4%
  • Paper Tiger4%
  • The Whisper Man4%
  • Clarissa4%▲ 1
  • Disclosure Day3%
  • Werwulf3%▼ 3
  • Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
  • Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
  • Parallel Tales3%
  • 1949 / Fatherland3%▼ 1
  • Rose3%
  • The Uprising3%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
  • The Death of Robin Hood3%
  • Backrooms3%▲ 1
  • The Entertainment System Is Down2%
  • Hope2%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
  • I Love Boosters2%
  • Jack of Spades2%
  • Tony2%
  • Bucking Fastard2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

97%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan97%
  • Javier Calvo89%
  • Martin McDonagh71%▲ 1
24 more
  • Nathan Fielder65%▲ 1
  • Denis Villeneuve58%▲ 1
  • Olivia Wilde51%▲ 2
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%▲ 1
  • Cristian Mungiu28%▲ 1
  • Jesse Eisenberg24%
  • Phil Lord12%
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu12%▲ 2
  • Curry Barker10%
  • Christopher Miller10%▲ 1
  • David Fincher9%▲ 2
  • Paweł Pawlikowski8%▲ 1
  • Tony Gilroy8%▲ 1
  • Steven Spielberg6%▼ 1
  • Mike Leigh5%▼ 6
  • Andrew Haigh5%
  • Joel Coen5%
  • Ben Affleck5%▲ 2
  • Na Hong-jin4%
  • Greta Gerwig4%
  • Beth de Araujo4%
  • Danny Boyle3%
  • Janus Metz Pedersen3%
  • James Ashcroft2%

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

90%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey90%▲ 13
  • The Black Ball79%▲ 9
  • Dune: Part Three74%▲ 2
9 more
  • Sense and Sensibility66%▲ 4
  • I Love Boosters50%▼ 1
  • Werwulf49%▲ 2
  • Wuthering Heights44%▲ 11
  • The Devil Wears Prada 244%▲ 2
  • Michael39%▲ 3
  • Wild Horse Nine28%▼ 10
  • Digger27%▲ 3
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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