2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 Closes Nov 7, 2029 · $23K today · $3.9M traded · $2.3M at stake · prices read just now

The odds

21%J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance21%
Gavin Newsom13%▲ 2
Marco Rubio10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9%
Jon Ossoff9%
Kamala Harris4%
Pete Buttigieg3%
Josh Shapiro3%
Andy Beshear3%
Donald J. Trump3%
Ron DeSantis3%
Mark Kelly2%

20 more

James Talarico2%
J.B. Pritzker2%▲ 1
Rahm Emanuel2%
Wes Moore1%
Tucker Carlson1%
Donald J. Trump Jr.1%
Jamie Dimon1%
Tulsi Gabbard1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Glenn Youngkin1%
Thomas Massie1%
Hunter Biden1%
Ro Khanna1%
Ted Cruz1%
Doug Burgum1%
Nikki Haley<1%
Stephen A. Smith<1%
Greg Abbott<1%
Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
Tim Walz<1%

How the odds have moved

J.D. Vance: 22% on Oct 20, 21% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
J.D. Vance	21%		20¢	21¢	$4.76	4.6M
Gavin Newsom	13%	▲ 2	12¢	13¢	$7.69	4.8M
Marco Rubio	10%		10¢	10¢	$10.00	5.8M
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	9%		9¢	9¢	$10.87	4.5M
Jon Ossoff	9%		9¢	9¢	$10.75	4.8M
Kamala Harris	4%		4¢	4¢	$26.32	3.1M
Pete Buttigieg	3%		3¢	3¢	$35.71	2.6M
Josh Shapiro	3%		3¢	3¢	$37.04	2.1M
Andy Beshear	3%		3¢	3¢	$38.46	2.3M
Donald J. Trump	3%		3¢	3¢	$38.46	4.0M
Ron DeSantis	3%		3¢	3¢	$38.46	2.6M
Mark Kelly	2%		2¢	3¢	$40.00	2.6M
James Talarico	2%		1¢	3¢	$33.33	2.6M
J.B. Pritzker	2%	▲ 1	2¢	2¢	$55.56	3.1M
Rahm Emanuel	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	2.1M
Wes Moore	1%		1¢	1¢	$76.92	2.5M
Tucker Carlson	1%		1¢	1¢		3.0M
Donald J. Trump Jr.	1%		1¢	1¢		3.0M
Jamie Dimon	1%		1¢	1¢	$100.00	1.5M
Tulsi Gabbard	1%		1¢	1¢		2.1M
Gretchen Whitmer	1%		1¢	1¢		2.3M
Glenn Youngkin	1%		1¢	1¢		1.5M
Thomas Massie	1%			1¢	$100.00	1.2M
Hunter Biden	1%			1¢	$100.00	860.7K
Ro Khanna	1%			1¢	$100.00	598.0K
Ted Cruz	1%			1¢	$100.00	7.3K
Doug Burgum	1%			1¢	$100.00	100
Nikki Haley	<1%		0¢	1¢		940.7K
Stephen A. Smith	<1%		0¢	1¢		2.5M
Greg Abbott	<1%		0¢	0¢		425.8K
Vivek Ramaswamy	<1%			0¢		1.9M
Tim Walz	<1%			0¢		632.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Crypto.com

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?JD VanceKalshi 21%Crypto.com 23%3 pts apart

US Presidential Election Winner 2028

23%JD Vance

JD Vance23%
Jon Ossoff9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9%
Marco Rubio8%

19 more

Mark Kelly5%
Pete Buttigieg5%
Josh Shapiro4%
Kamala Harris4%
Ron DeSantis4%
Andy Beshear4%
Wes Moore3%
Ro Khanna3%
Nikki Haley2%
Gretchen Whitmer2%
Glenn Youngkin2%
Ted Cruz2%
JB Pritzker2%
Tulsi Gabbard2%
Vivek Ramaswamy2%
Tim Walz2%
Brian Kemp2%
Cory Booker1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Polymarket

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?Alexandria Ocasio-CortezKalshi 9%Polymarket 13%4 pts apart

Presidential Election Winner 2028

21%JD Vance

JD Vance21%▲ 1
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
Gavin Newsom10%
Jon Ossoff10%

50 more

Marco Rubio9%
Kamala Harris4%
Ron DeSantis3%▲ 1
Josh Shapiro3%
Pete Buttigieg3%
Andy Beshear2%
James Talarico2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
Donald Trump1%
Tucker Carlson1%
Mark Kelly1%
Raphael Warnock1%
Wes Moore1%
Thomas Massie1%
Ro Khanna1%
JB Pritzker1%
Ted Cruz1%
Ivanka Trump1%
Rahm Emanuel1%
Donald Trump Jr.1%
Gretchen Whitmer<1%
Jamie Dimon<1%
Glenn Youngkin<1%
Tulsi Gabbard<1%
Greg Abbott<1%
Elon Musk<1%
Michelle Obama<1%
Stephen Smith<1%
Nikki Haley<1%
Tim Walz<1%
Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
LeBron James<1%
Kim Kardashian<1%
Zohran Mamdani<1%
Eric Trump<1%
Pete Hegseth<1%
Jalen Brunson<1%
Abigail Spanberger<1%
Hakeem Jeffries<1%
Elissa Slotkin<1%
Adam Schiff<1%
Josh Stein<1%
Alex Padilla<1%
Candace Owens<1%
Tim Scott<1%
Mike Johnson<1%
Doug Burgum<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
John N. Kennedy<1%
Rick Scott<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: U.S. Presidential, J.D. Vance, Gavin Newsom

Search ›

Gavin Newsom gets brutal exit report card as 62% of California voters are begging for a new direction: pollCalifornia Post · 3 days agoGavin Newsom is leaving Sacramento with a damning report card. A new poll finds 62% of California registered voters rate his tenure fair or poor, with voters panning his handling of homelessness, housing, taxes, state spending and AI — and…
Zelenskyy on meeting with Marco Rubio about war in UkraineNBC News · 4 days agoNBC News Zelenskyy on meeting with Marco Rubio about war in Ukraine
Marco Rubio Rejects Reports of U.S. Intelligence Pause for UkraineNewsweek · 5 days agoU.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, stressed on Monday there had been "no pause" in Washington sharing intelligence with Ukraine. - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World News Oregon School…
Vice President J.D. Vance has not yet arrived in North Platte, but his planned visit is already filling area hotels.@wdbj7 · 2 days agoWDBJ7 Vice President J.D. Vance has not yet arrived in North Platte, but his planned visit is already filling area hotels. Pepsi Spotlight: Sophomore stat sheet stuffer, Cait Moore Multiple protesters removed during President Trump’s…
Marco Rubio says there is "no pause" in intelligence sharing with UkraineCBS News · 4 days agoThe Takeout with Major Garrett CBS News Chicago 4pm CBS News Detroit 5pm CBS News Miami 5pm The 4 from WCCO News CBS News New York 5pm CBS News Philadelphia 5pm CBS News Texas at 4pm
Gavin Newsom’s 24/7 social media machineCalMatters · 2 days agoThese days you can find Gov. Gavin Newsom on just about any media platform. With less than three months until he finishes his final term as California governor, you can catch Newsom on X picking fights with right-wing media, posting on…
Gavin Newsom’s legislative minions just got a lesson in constitutional supremacyThe Mike Gallagher Show · 3 days agoFrom Fox News, “Gavin Newsom’s legislative minions just got a lesson in constitutional supremacy” The post Gavin Newsom’s legislative minions just got a lesson in constitutional supremacy appeared first on The Mike Gallagher Show. From Fox…
Hotel bookings up ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance’s arrival@knopnews2 · 4 days agoKNOP NORTH PLATTE, Neb. (KNOP) - Vice President J.D. Vance has not yet arrived in North Platte, but his planned visit is already filling area hotels. Hotels in the area report reservations are up ahead of Thursday’s event. A hotel manager…
Do-Nothing Republicans Did Nothing So Now Gavin Newsom Controls Keys To Most Critical Rulesdailycaller · 2 days agoRepublicans might have accidentally given Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom and the California legislature keys that will end up shaping some of the most important rules involving AI. Republicans might have accidentally given…
Vice President J.D. Vance’s Deceptive ‘Antiwar’ Campaign SpeechLewRockwell · 4 days agoJ.D. Vance is approaching the halfway point of his term as vice president in an administration that has committed the United States to wars in locations from Ukraine to Venezuela to Somalia to Iran and beyond. All the while, the…
Gavin Newsom Breaks Silence on Ex-Wife Kimberly Guilfoyle's Sacking as Greek Ambassador — It's 'Unfortunate'RadarOnline · 4 days agoGavin Newsom has given his reaction to ex-wife Kimberly Guilfoyle's sacking as Greek Ambassador. Oct. 20 2026, Published 8:38 a.m. ET Gavin Newsom has broken his silence on ex-wife Kimberly Guilfoyle's sacking at Greek Ambassador…
J.D. Vance Fumbles When Quizzed on Kate Zacharia's White House Firing — Before Blaming MediaRadarOnline · 4 days agoJ.D. Vance struggled to get his words out when he was asked about Kate Zacharia's sacking. Oct. 20 2026, Published 11:31 a.m. ET Vice President J.D. Vance fumbled a simple question about Kate Zacharia while being grilled over the former…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onOffice of the Presidency

Trading closesNov 7, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$3.9M (76,683,939 contracts)

Today$23K

This week$3.9M

At stake$2.3M

In the news1 headlines today, 37 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Search Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.