Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Polymarket Elections › President 2028 Closes Nov 3 · $1.4M today · $39.2M traded · $12.3M at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

65%Democrats Sweep

Democrats Sweep65%▲ 1
R Senate, D House26%
Republicans Sweep7%
D Senate, R House1%
Other<1%

How the odds have moved

Democrats Sweep: 62% on Oct 20, 65% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Democrats Sweep	65%	▲ 1	65¢	66¢	$1.52	$8.5M
R Senate, D House	26%		26¢	27¢	$3.70	$5.4M
Republicans Sweep	7%		7¢	8¢	$12.50	$12.3M
D Senate, R House	1%		1¢	1¢		$8.4M
Other	<1%		0¢	0¢		$4.6M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Balance of Power, Midterms, Democrats Sweep

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George Clooney, Betty Gilpin,& More Unite For Midterms Fundraiser - EXCLUDeadline · 12 h agoEXCLUSIVE: George Clooney was a big draw on Broadway last year with Good Night and Good Luck, and now the Tony Awards nominee is going to be back on-stage with his GNGT co-star Clark Gregg for a bit of a Smear campaign. The November 1…
Alaska's Democratic Senate candidate pauses midterms campaigning after car crashBBC News · 18 h agoMary Peltola, Alaska's Democratic Senate candidate, has paused campaigning ahead of the US midterm elections after sustaining "minor injuries" in a car crash. Peltola, 53, and her family were travelling to an event on Saturday when the…
Latest CBS News poll shows this party has a slight edge to win House majority in the midtermsCBS News · 17 h agoRecent CBS News polling shows how Democrats and Republicans feel ahead of the midterms, which could reshape the balance of power on Capitol Hill. CBS News' Nikole Killion reports, and Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal…
What Are The Midterms And Why Do They Matter?Newsweek · 25 h agoWith the 2026 midterms approaching, Newsweek takes a look at the key issues on Americans’ minds and how the elections could reshape the balance of power in W... - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter…
Inside House GOP's unprecedented push to monitor midterm elections and prepare for legal fightsFox News · 18 h agoCommittee on House Administration Chairman Bryan Steil spoke with Fox News Digital about the election observer program seeing federal employees deployed across the country for Nov. 3. House Republicans are deploying "dozens and dozens" of…
Ohio voters motivated ahead of midtermsFox News · 17 h agoFox News' Steve Doocy visits JC's Restaurant in Burton, Ohio, to hear from voters about the tightening governor's race. Local residents share their perspectives on the candidates and key issues. Ohio voters motivated ahead of midterms Fox…
Prediction markets' credibility 'on the line' in midtermsPOLITICO · 17 h ago"This is truly the first prediction-market election," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said. The midterm elections represent a major chance for prediction market platforms like Kalshi to prove their forecasting chops. | Jenny Kane/AP America’s…
Young Georgians ready to rock the vote this midtermCBS News · 10 h agoCBS News Atlanta is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WUPA and channel 69, CBS News Atlanta offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Young Georgians ready…
Cobb County SPLOST up for renewal this midterm electionCBS News · 11 h agoCBS News Atlanta is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WUPA and channel 69, CBS News Atlanta offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Cobb County SPLOST up…
Countdown on until 2026 midterm electionCBS News · 21 h agoCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Countdown on until 2026…
Trump Offers $1M for Election Fraud Convictions Week Before MidtermsNewsweek · 8 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 06:23 PM EDT President Donald Trump has offered $1 million to people who report voter fraud that results in an arrest and conviction, raising the financial stakes of his election-integrity push just over a week before the…
WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies voters in Mississippi ahead of midtermsFox News · 10 h agoThe president is campaigning for Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies voters in Mississippi ahead of midterms The president is campaigning for Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

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Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

48.2median

46.557.5

Median 48.2Middle half 47.1 – 50.5

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$39.2M

Today$1.4M

This week$9.8M

At stake$12.3M

In the news365 headlines today, 3,605 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the spe

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions