Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $126 today · $42.8K traded · $23.3K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

88%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti88%
Andrew Garfield79%▲ 1
Sam Rockwell76%
Guitarricadelafuente72%▲ 3
John Leguizamo67%▼ 2
Edward Norton59%▲ 2
Robert Pattinson30%▲ 3
Colman Domingo24%
Riz Ahmed18%
Steve Buscemi14%▲ 2
John Goodman10%▼ 1
Antonio Banderas8%

15 more

Himesh Patel6%
Channing Tatum6%
Tom Holland5%
Jeremy Strong5%
Skyler Gisondo5%
Miles Teller4%
James Ortiz4%▲ 1
Charles Melton4%
Jesse Plemons4%
Michael Fassbender4%
Daniel Craig4%
Robert DeNiro3%
Adam Scott3%
Guy Pearce2%
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)1%

How the odds have moved

Paul Giamatti: 88% on Oct 20, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Paul Giamatti	88%		87¢	89¢	$1.12	6.3K
Andrew Garfield	79%	▲ 1	77¢	81¢	$1.23	2.0K
Sam Rockwell	76%		75¢	77¢	$1.30	5.2K
Guitarricadelafuente	72%	▲ 3	71¢	72¢	$1.39	3.9K
John Leguizamo	67%	▼ 2	65¢	69¢	$1.45	11.8K
Edward Norton	59%	▲ 2	57¢	60¢	$1.67	5.9K
Robert Pattinson	30%	▲ 3	29¢	30¢	$3.33	34.1K
Colman Domingo	24%		23¢	25¢	$4.00	8.7K
Riz Ahmed	18%		16¢	19¢	$5.26	10.7K
Steve Buscemi	14%	▲ 2	14¢	15¢	$6.67	6.8K
John Goodman	10%	▼ 1	7¢	13¢	$7.69	12.5K
Antonio Banderas	8%		6¢	10¢	$10.00	3.3K
Himesh Patel	6%		4¢	8¢	$12.50	2.3K
Channing Tatum	6%		1¢	10¢	$10.00	1.8K
Tom Holland	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.67	7.7K
Jeremy Strong	5%		3¢	7¢	$14.29	3.9K
Skyler Gisondo	5%		2¢	8¢	$12.50	1.0K
Miles Teller	4%		2¢	6¢	$16.67	1.1K
James Ortiz	4%	▲ 1	2¢	6¢	$16.67	1.9K
Charles Melton	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	1.4K
Jesse Plemons	4%		3¢	4¢	$25.00	967
Michael Fassbender	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	1.3K
Daniel Craig	4%		3¢	4¢	$25.00	710
Robert DeNiro	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	18.00
Adam Scott	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	15.00
Guy Pearce	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	5.7K
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)	1%			2¢	$50.00	586

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor (2027)Sam RockwellKalshi 76%Polymarket 69%7 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

92%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti92%
Andrew Garfield78%
Guitarricadelafuente71%▲ 3
Sam Rockwell69%▼ 3

22 more

John Leguizamo66%▼ 1
Edward Norton56%▼ 22
Robert Pattinson30%▼ 1
Colman Domingo24%▲ 2
Steve Buscemi21%▲ 4
Riz Ahmed18%▲ 2
John Goodman14%
Skyler Gisondo8%▲ 1
Michael Fassbender7%▼ 2
Jeremy Strong7%▲ 1
Guy Pearce7%▲ 1
James Ortiz7%
Miles Teller6%▼ 1
Antonio Banderas5%
Himesh Patel5%▲ 1
Channing Tatum4%▼ 1
Daniel Craig4%▲ 2
Adam Scott3%
Tom Holland3%
Jesse Plemons3%
Charles Melton3%
Robert De Niro3%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Supporting Actor

Search ›

Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the WarStanford University · 18 h agoStanford University Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the War Join us for a film screening of Lithuania's submission for the Academy Awards with commentary from Maarja…
Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 3 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 27 h agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
Oscar Piastri warns COTA bumps could become an overtaking hazard at US GPYahoo Sports · 21 h agoMcLaren's Oscar Piastri has compared the bump on the approach to Turn 1 at the Circuit of the Americas to "a motocross jump" after qualifying seventh for the United States Grand Prix. The Australian driver finished 0.768 seconds behind…
Fulham climb out of drop zone after Oscar Bobb’s late show sinks Coventrythe Guardian · 28 h agoOscar Bobb’s first Premier League goal for Fulham earned a win against Coventry that lifted Álvaro Arbeloa’s side clear of the relegation zone. Bobb produced a fine bit of individual skill to score in the 80th minute, twisting his way into…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 3 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
Tom Cruise punched Jack Nicholson after 'A Few Good Men' courtroom scene, co-star saysFox News · 48 h agoThe former "Dancing with the Stars" co-host nearly crushed the actor with a motorcycle before he saved the day. Kevin Pollak is opening up about the time Tom Cruise punched Jack Nicholson after a tense moment while filming "A Few Good…
Oscar winner Melissa Leo to perform in KingstonDaily Freeman · 24 h agoKINGSTON, N.Y. — Academy Award winner Melissa Leo, a part-time Ulster County resident, will take the stage at the Arts Society of Kingston for a stage reading of “night, Mother,” Marsha Norman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning drama, on Saturday…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 2 days agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…
Red Sea Film Foundation expands global reach with record Oscar-season slateBroadcastPro ME · 10 h agoThe shortlist for Best International Feature Film will be announced on December 15, 2026, with nominations on January 21, 2027. The Red Sea Film Foundation has achieved a record presence in the race for the Best International Feature Film…
Pakistani short film ‘The Last Glance’ qualifies for Oscars longlist24 News HD · 33 h agoPakistani filmmaker Kamran Faiq has achieved an international milestone as his short film The Last Glance qualifies for the 2028 Academy Awards longlist after winning the Jury Award for Best Short at the 21st Tasveer Film Festival in…
Jeon Do-yeon Defined an Era of Korean Cinema. With ‘Possible Love,’ She’s Become an Oscar ContenderThe Hollywood Reporter · 2 days agoThe decorated actor could become the first person from South Korea to be nominated for best actress — fitting, given her remarkable run onscreen: “I almost find myself wondering why it has taken the rest of the world so long to notice…

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

44%The Odyssey

The Odyssey44%▼ 1
You Can See Everything29%▼ 3
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three6%
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

95%The Odyssey

The Odyssey95%▲ 2
Dune: Part Three78%▼ 14
Project Hail Mary60%▼ 4

6 more

Fatherland45%
Werwulf33%▼ 4
Digger31%
Obsession19%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%▼ 2

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%▼ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut77%
You Can See Everything75%
The Invite62%▲ 2
I Play Rocky59%▲ 11
All of a Sudden37%▼ 1
Fjord32%▼ 5
Obsession31%▼ 1
Elsinore28%▼ 3
The Adventures of Cliff Booth23%▼ 1
Behemoth!22%▲ 7
Digger19%
Michael13%▲ 2
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Social Reckoning4%▲ 2
The Drama3%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations

75%The Baddest Speechwriter of All

The Baddest Speechwriter of All75%▲ 11
Oh Whale53%▲ 13
One Last Order53%▼ 4

7 more

Water Cooler48%▲ 21
Listen45%▲ 17
The Tuners44%▲ 13
A Derailment43%▲ 1
We're Fine32%▲ 7
A Wolf in the Suburbs20%▲ 6
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil17%▼ 9

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

99%The Odyssey

The Odyssey99%▲ 6
The Black Ball98%▲ 11
You Can See Everything65%▲ 2

10 more

Wild Horse Nine63%▲ 5
Dune: Part Three55%▼ 4
Project Hail Mary40%▲ 2
Fjord31%
The Debut31%▼ 31
The Invite20%▼ 8
Elsinore17%
Digger16%▼ 1
Ink14%
Club Kid12%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton74%▲ 2

15 more

Tao Okamoto61%▼ 1
Kate O'Flynn41%
Amanda Seyfried41%▼ 5
Olivia Colman32%▼ 3
Mariana di Girolamo28%▼ 4
Sandra Hüller25%▲ 3
Parker Posey20%▼ 1
Merritt Wever18%
Gemma Chan9%▼ 5
Zendaya8%
Danielle Deadwyler7%▼ 4
Isabella Rossellini7%▲ 2
Betty Gilpin6%▼ 16
Margaret Qualley4%
Inde Navarrette1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$42.8K (141,408 contracts)

Today$126

This week$5.1K

At stake$23.3K

In the news18 headlines today, 317 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If John Goodman has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions