Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $2.2K today · $47.1K traded · $11.5K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

The odds

92%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti92%
Andrew Garfield78%▲ 1
Guitarricadelafuente73%▲ 4
John Leguizamo69%▼ 2
Sam Rockwell67%▼ 4
Edward Norton57%▼ 6
Robert Pattinson31%▲ 1
Colman Domingo25%▲ 2
Steve Buscemi20%▲ 1
Riz Ahmed18%▲ 1
John Goodman13%
Michael Fassbender12%▲ 6

14 more

Jeremy Strong10%▲ 4
Skyler Gisondo9%▲ 1
Miles Teller7%▲ 3
James Ortiz7%
Guy Pearce6%▲ 1
Antonio Banderas6%
Adam Scott5%▲ 1
Channing Tatum4%▼ 1
Himesh Patel4%
Daniel Craig4%
Jesse Plemons3%
Tom Holland3%
Charles Melton3%
Robert De Niro3%

How the odds have moved

Paul Giamatti: 92% on Oct 20, 92% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Paul Giamatti	92%		91¢	92¢	$1.09	$697
Andrew Garfield	78%	▲ 1	75¢	80¢	$1.25	$2.2K
Guitarricadelafuente	73%	▲ 4	70¢	75¢	$1.33	$2.6K
John Leguizamo	69%	▼ 2	68¢	70¢	$1.43	$3.9K
Sam Rockwell	67%	▼ 4	66¢	68¢	$1.47	$888
Edward Norton	57%	▼ 6	56¢	59¢	$1.69	$1.9K
Robert Pattinson	31%	▲ 1	29¢	32¢	$3.13	$1.5K
Colman Domingo	25%	▲ 2	24¢	26¢	$3.85	$40
Steve Buscemi	20%	▲ 1	19¢	21¢	$4.76	$2.5K
Riz Ahmed	18%	▲ 1	17¢	19¢	$5.26	$2.4K
John Goodman	13%		12¢	15¢	$6.85	$10.6K
Michael Fassbender	12%	▲ 6	9¢	15¢	$6.54	$117
Jeremy Strong	10%	▲ 4	9¢	12¢	$8.47
Skyler Gisondo	9%	▲ 1	8¢	10¢	$10.00	$474
Miles Teller	7%	▲ 3	6¢	8¢	$12.35	$341
James Ortiz	7%		5¢	8¢	$12.50	$224
Guy Pearce	6%	▲ 1	5¢	8¢	$12.66	$498
Antonio Banderas	6%		2¢	10¢	$10.00
Adam Scott	5%	▲ 1	4¢	5¢	$19.61	$3.3K
Channing Tatum	4%	▼ 1	2¢	7¢	$14.71	$173
Himesh Patel	4%		3¢	6¢	$17.54	$1.6K
Daniel Craig	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.95	$5K
Jesse Plemons	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	$1.7K
Tom Holland	3%		1¢	5¢	$18.52	$2.3K
Charles Melton	3%		1¢	4¢	$23.26	$1.7K
Robert De Niro	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	$658

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor (2027)Sam RockwellKalshi 76%Polymarket 67%9 pts apart

Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor (2027)

88%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti88%
Andrew Garfield79%
Sam Rockwell76%
Guitarricadelafuente73%▲ 4

23 more

John Leguizamo63%▼ 5
Edward Norton58%▼ 1
Robert Pattinson30%
Colman Domingo24%
Riz Ahmed17%▼ 1
Steve Buscemi14%▼ 1
John Goodman11%▲ 1
Antonio Banderas9%▲ 1
Himesh Patel6%
Channing Tatum6%▲ 1
Tom Holland5%
Jeremy Strong5%
Skyler Gisondo5%▲ 1
Miles Teller4%
James Ortiz4%
Charles Melton4%
Jesse Plemons4%
Michael Fassbender4%
Daniel Craig4%
Robert DeNiro3%
Adam Scott3%
Guy Pearce2%
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Supporting Actor Nominations

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Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

85%NAZA

NAZA85%
You Can See Everything80%▼ 7
Once Upon a Time in Harlem67%▲ 5

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Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

99%The Odyssey

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The Black Ball95%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%

50 more

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You Can See Everything81%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
The Debut74%
The Invite62%▲ 2
I Play Rocky58%▲ 1
Artificial55%▼ 1
All of a Sudden38%▲ 1
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Obsession34%▲ 1
Elsinore30%
Wildwood28%▲ 2
Club Kid24%▲ 2
Digger23%▲ 1
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Primetime10%
Ink8%▲ 2
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Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother7%▼ 1
Sense and Sensibility6%
Saturn Return5%▼ 1
Misty Green4%▲ 1
The Drama4%
1949 / Fatherland4%▲ 1
Paper Tiger4%
Minotaur4%▼ 1
Clarissa4%
Disclosure Day3%▲ 1
Werwulf3%▼ 3
Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
Parallel Tales3%
The Whisper Man3%▼ 1
Rose3%
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
The Death of Robin Hood3%
Backrooms3%▲ 1
The Entertainment System Is Down2%
Hope2%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
I Love Boosters2%
Jack of Spades2%
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
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Denis Villeneuve58%▲ 1
Olivia Wilde51%▲ 1
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Christopher Miller10%▲ 1
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Mike Leigh5%▼ 6
Andrew Haigh5%
Joel Coen5%
Ben Affleck5%▲ 2
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Greta Gerwig4%
Beth de Araujo4%
Danny Boyle3%
Janus Metz Pedersen3%
James Ashcroft2%

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The Odyssey90%▲ 12
Dune: Part Three74%▲ 2
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Sense and Sensibility63%▲ 2
I Love Boosters50%▲ 1
Werwulf49%▲ 3
Wuthering Heights44%▲ 11
The Devil Wears Prada 243%▲ 5
Michael40%▲ 2
Digger28%▲ 4
Wild Horse Nine27%▲ 7
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMar 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$47.1K

Today$2.2K

This week$10.2K

At stake$11.5K

In the news11 headlines today, 313 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this m

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions