Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $2.4K today · $59.5K traded · $30.8K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

97%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan97%
  • Javier Calvo89%
  • Greta Gerwig85%▲ 81
  • Martin McDonagh71%▼ 6
  • Nathan Fielder65%▼ 1
  • Denis Villeneuve62%▲ 5
  • Olivia Wilde49%▼ 3
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi38%▲ 5
  • Paweł Pawlikowski33%▲ 25
  • David Fincher28%▲ 22
  • Cristian Mungiu28%
  • Jesse Eisenberg24%▲ 1
15 more
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu18%▲ 7
  • Phil Lord12%▲ 2
  • Curry Barker11%▲ 2
  • Christopher Miller11%▲ 2
  • Steven Spielberg7%▲ 1
  • Mike Leigh5%▼ 8
  • Joel Coen5%
  • Na Hong-jin4%
  • Beth de Araujo4%
  • Danny Boyle3%
  • Janus Metz Pedersen3%
  • Tony Gilroy3%▼ 5
  • Ben Affleck3%
  • James Ashcroft2%
  • Andrew Haigh1%▼ 4

How the odds have moved

Christopher Nolan: 95% on Oct 20, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Christopher Nolan 97% 95¢ 99¢ $1.01 12.3K
Javier Calvo 89% 87¢ 90¢ $1.11 3.3K
Greta Gerwig 85% ▲ 81 87¢ $1.15 2.4K
Martin McDonagh 71% ▼ 6 69¢ 72¢ $1.39 12.1K
Nathan Fielder 65% ▼ 1 64¢ 65¢ $1.54 16.1K
Denis Villeneuve 62% ▲ 5 57¢ 67¢ $1.49 11.8K
Olivia Wilde 49% ▼ 3 46¢ 52¢ $1.92 13.6K
Ryusuke Hamaguchi 38% ▲ 5 29¢ 59¢ $1.69 2.6K
Paweł Pawlikowski 33% ▲ 25 5¢ 33¢ $3.03 1.3K
David Fincher 28% ▲ 22 10¢ 26¢ $3.85 3.4K
Cristian Mungiu 28% 27¢ 29¢ $3.45 4.7K
Jesse Eisenberg 24% ▲ 1 23¢ 24¢ $4.17 6.6K
Alejandro González Iñárritu 18% ▲ 7 14¢ 22¢ $4.55 10.2K
Phil Lord 12% ▲ 2 9¢ 15¢ $6.67 3.6K
Curry Barker 11% ▲ 2 10¢ 12¢ $8.33 8.6K
Christopher Miller 11% ▲ 2 8¢ 13¢ $7.69 2.1K
Steven Spielberg 7% ▲ 1 6¢ 8¢ $12.50 8.4K
Mike Leigh 5% ▼ 8 6¢ 52¢ $1.92 1.2K
Joel Coen 5% 3¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.7K
Na Hong-jin 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.0K
Beth de Araujo 4% 7¢ $14.29 405
Danny Boyle 3% 6¢ $16.67 2.2K
Janus Metz Pedersen 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 22.00
Tony Gilroy 3% ▼ 5 3¢ 32¢ $3.13 1.8K
Ben Affleck 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 131
James Ashcroft 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 27.00
Andrew Haigh 1% ▼ 4 1¢ 14¢ $7.14 23.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations

97%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan97%
  • Javier Calvo85%▼ 2
  • Javier Ambrossi80%▼ 1
  • Martin McDonagh74%▼ 1
25 more
  • Nathan Fielder60%▼ 7
  • Denis Villeneuve53%▼ 3
  • Olivia Wilde48%▼ 2
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi27%▲ 1
  • Jesse Eisenberg24%
  • Cristian Mungiu22%▲ 1
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu13%▲ 4
  • David Fincher13%▼ 1
  • Curry Barker10%▼ 1
  • Christopher Miller10%
  • Paweł Pawlikowski10%
  • Peter Farrelly9%▲ 4
  • Phil Lord8%
  • Mike Leigh6%
  • Andrew Haigh6%▲ 1
  • Beth de Araujo6%
  • Na Hong-jin6%▼ 1
  • Tony Gilroy5%
  • Danny Boyle5%▼ 1
  • Ben Affleck5%
  • Janus Metz Pedersen5%
  • Joel Coen4%
  • Steven Spielberg4%
  • Aaron Sorkin4%
  • James Ashcroft3%
PolymarketCloses Mar 14, 2027 · $788 today · $30.7K traded

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The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Director

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Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

44%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey44%▼ 2
  • You Can See Everything29%▼ 2
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three6%▼ 1
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

91%Matt Damon
  • Matt Damon91%▼ 4
  • John Malkovich86%▼ 3
  • Andrew Scott85%
16 more
  • John Turturro47%▲ 5
  • Tom Cruise45%▼ 20
  • Robert Pattinson44%▼ 1
  • Ryan Gosling43%▼ 2
  • Anthony Ippolito40%▲ 9
  • Sebastian Stan18%▼ 1
  • Jaafar Jackson18%▲ 1
  • Pedro Pascal16%
  • Timothée Chalamet11%▼ 2
  • Sam Rockwell6%▲ 1
  • Javier Bardem5%▲ 1
  • Adam Driver5%▲ 1
  • Josh O'Connor4%
  • Brad Pitt4%
  • Robert Aramayo3%
  • Jeremy Strong2%

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey98%
  • La Bola Negra95%▲ 1
  • Wild Horse Nine91%▲ 1
19 more
  • Dune: Part Three88%
  • Project Hail Mary77%▲ 1
  • The Debut77%
  • You Can See Everything76%▼ 5
  • I Play Rocky62%▲ 17
  • The Invite61%
  • All of a Sudden38%
  • Fjord34%▼ 3
  • Obsession31%▼ 1
  • The Adventures of Cliff Booth25%▲ 2
  • Elsinore24%▼ 7
  • Digger19%
  • Behemoth!18%▲ 3
  • Michael14%▲ 3
  • Avengers: Doomsday7%
  • Disclosure Day5%
  • Fatherland5%
  • The Drama3%
  • The Social Reckoning2%

Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

91%The Debut
  • The Debut91%▲ 7
  • Wild Horse Nine90%▼ 5
  • Club Kid56%▼ 4
15 more
  • Obsession47%▼ 7
  • Fjord43%▼ 5
  • Elsinore34%▲ 9
  • Behemoth!21%▼ 3
  • The Drama21%▲ 1
  • Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma18%▼ 1
  • Digger13%
  • Josephine12%▲ 2
  • Forgotten Island5%▼ 11
  • The Odyssey4%
  • A Place in Hell4%
  • The Invite4%
  • Fatherland3%▼ 1
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
  • The Black Ball2%

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway
  • Anne Hathaway88%
  • Samantha Morton82%▲ 5
  • Penélope Cruz77%
15 more
  • Tao Okamoto61%▼ 2
  • Amanda Seyfried41%▲ 1
  • Kate O'Flynn34%▼ 8
  • Olivia Colman32%▲ 6
  • Mariana di Girolamo29%▼ 4
  • Sandra Hüller25%▼ 5
  • Parker Posey21%▲ 1
  • Merritt Wever18%▼ 6
  • Gemma Chan10%▼ 5
  • Zendaya9%▲ 2
  • Danielle Deadwyler8%▼ 11
  • Betty Gilpin6%▲ 2
  • Isabella Rossellini5%▼ 1
  • Margaret Qualley4%▼ 1
  • Inde Navarrette1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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