Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $3K today · $19.3K traded · $5.5K at stake · prices read 28 min ago

The odds

92%Wild Horse Nine

Wild Horse Nine92%
The Debut91%▲ 10
Club Kid56%▼ 6
Obsession53%▼ 2
Fjord42%▲ 2
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma32%▲ 17
Elsinore28%
Behemoth!21%
Digger19%
The Drama15%
Josephine13%▲ 4
The Invite4%

6 more

A Place in Hell4%▼ 1
The Odyssey4%
Forgotten Island4%▼ 5
Fatherland1%▼ 1
The Black Ball1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth1%

How the odds have moved

Wild Horse Nine: 92% on Oct 20, 92% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Wild Horse Nine	92%		91¢	92¢	$1.09	$756
The Debut	91%	▲ 10	90¢	92¢	$1.09	$790
Club Kid	56%	▼ 6	55¢	56¢	$1.79	$2.2K
Obsession	53%	▼ 2	47¢	58¢	$1.72	$547
Fjord	42%	▲ 2	40¢	44¢	$2.27	$1.1K
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma	32%	▲ 17	30¢	34¢	$2.94	$1.5K
Elsinore	28%		25¢	30¢	$3.33
Behemoth!	21%		20¢	21¢	$4.76	$479
Digger	19%		18¢	19¢	$5.26	$1.1K
The Drama	15%		14¢	16¢	$6.25	$4.1K
Josephine	13%	▲ 4	10¢	15¢	$6.67	$250
The Invite	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	$595
A Place in Hell	4%	▼ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.49	$521
The Odyssey	4%		0¢	8¢	$13.16	$1.7K
Forgotten Island	4%	▼ 5	3¢	5¢	$20.00	$109
Fatherland	1%	▼ 1	0¢	3¢	$40.00	$477
The Black Ball	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	$2.6K
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth	1%		0¢	1¢		$604

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Original Screenplay (2027)Teenage Sex and Death at Camp MiasmaKalshi 16%Polymarket 32%16 pts apart

Oscar nominees: Best Original Screenplay (2027)

93%Wild Horse Nine

Wild Horse Nine93%
The Debut87%▲ 1
Club Kid57%▲ 1
Fjord50%▲ 4

14 more

Obsession47%▼ 2
Behemoth!28%▲ 1
Elsinore27%▲ 1
Digger25%▲ 1
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma16%▼ 1
The Drama14%▲ 1
Josephine8%▲ 1
The Black Ball8%▲ 1
A Place in Hell7%▲ 4
Fatherland6%▼ 1
The Invite5%▼ 1
Forgotten Island3%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth2%
The Odyssey2%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Original Screenplay Nominations

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

45%The Odyssey

The Odyssey45%
The Black Ball18%
You Can See Everything17%▼ 3

38 more

Dune: Part Three9%
Wild Horse Nine2%
Digger1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

82%You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything82%▲ 5
NAZA70%▼ 14
Once Upon a Time in Harlem67%▼ 9

7 more

American Doctor53%▲ 1
14th37%
One in a Million28%
Nuisance Bear21%▼ 7
Tutu21%▲ 1
Musk18%▲ 1
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party18%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

85%The Odyssey

The Odyssey85%
The Black Ball77%
You Can See Everything62%▲ 19

10 more

Wild Horse Nine62%▲ 2
Dune: Part Three47%▲ 2
Project Hail Mary39%▼ 2
Fjord31%▼ 3
The Debut27%▼ 15
The Invite23%▼ 3
Club Kid22%▲ 2
Ink21%
Elsinore17%▼ 3
Digger17%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%
La Bola Negra95%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine92%▲ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three87%
The Debut80%▼ 3
Project Hail Mary78%▼ 3
You Can See Everything71%▲ 5
The Invite58%▼ 1
Fjord39%
All of a Sudden36%
I Play Rocky36%▼ 3
Obsession34%
Elsinore27%▼ 4
Behemoth!25%▲ 5
The Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▼ 1
Digger19%▼ 1
Michael13%
Disclosure Day8%▼ 1
Avengers: Doomsday7%▼ 3
Fatherland5%▼ 1
The Social Reckoning4%
The Drama3%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

80%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway80%▼ 10
Samantha Morton80%
Penélope Cruz78%▲ 2

15 more

Tao Okamoto61%▲ 2
Amanda Seyfried55%▲ 6
Sandra Hüller35%▼ 1
Kate O'Flynn28%▼ 1
Mariana di Girolamo27%▲ 1
Olivia Colman25%▼ 11
Merritt Wever22%▼ 17
Parker Posey19%
Gemma Chan12%
Zendaya8%
Isabella Rossellini7%
Betty Gilpin6%▲ 1
Margaret Qualley4%
Danielle Deadwyler3%
Inde Navarrette2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

93%Matt Damon

Matt Damon93%
John Malkovich88%
Andrew Scott86%

16 more

Tom Cruise56%▲ 2
Ryan Gosling45%▲ 3
John Turturro44%▲ 2
Robert Pattinson43%▼ 1
Anthony Ippolito36%
Adam Driver22%▲ 17
Pedro Pascal20%▲ 1
Sebastian Stan17%
Jaafar Jackson17%
Timothée Chalamet14%▼ 11
Josh O'Connor5%
Sam Rockwell5%
Brad Pitt5%
Javier Bardem5%
Robert Aramayo4%
Jeremy Strong1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMar 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$19.3K

Today$3K

This week$19.3K

At stake$5.5K

In the news28 headlines today, 533 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, thi

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.