Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $2.5K today · $34.2K traded · $5.9K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

96%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan96%▼ 1
Javier Calvo85%▼ 3
Javier Ambrossi80%
Martin McDonagh71%▼ 4
Nathan Fielder63%▼ 1
Denis Villeneuve56%▲ 9
Olivia Wilde48%
Ryusuke Hamaguchi26%▼ 2
Jesse Eisenberg25%▲ 1
Peter Farrelly20%▲ 12
Cristian Mungiu19%▼ 14
Christopher Miller13%▲ 3

17 more

Alejandro González Iñárritu12%▼ 3
Curry Barker11%
Phil Lord10%▲ 2
David Fincher10%▲ 2
Paweł Pawlikowski10%
Mike Leigh6%
Danny Boyle6%
Andrew Haigh6%
Beth de Araujo6%
Na Hong-jin6%
Tony Gilroy5%
Ben Affleck5%
Aaron Sorkin4%
Joel Coen4%
Steven Spielberg3%
Janus Metz Pedersen3%
James Ashcroft3%

How the odds have moved

Christopher Nolan: 96% on Oct 20, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Christopher Nolan	96%	▼ 1	93¢	98¢	$1.02	$2.1K
Javier Calvo	85%	▼ 3	83¢	86¢	$1.16	$646
Javier Ambrossi	80%		79¢	81¢	$1.23	$603
Martin McDonagh	71%	▼ 4	67¢	74¢	$1.35	$2K
Nathan Fielder	63%	▼ 1	62¢	65¢	$1.54	$4K
Denis Villeneuve	56%	▲ 9	55¢	57¢	$1.75	$1.5K
Olivia Wilde	48%		45¢	50¢	$2.00	$3.4K
Ryusuke Hamaguchi	26%	▼ 2	24¢	28¢	$3.57	$1.3K
Jesse Eisenberg	25%	▲ 1	23¢	26¢	$3.85	$618
Peter Farrelly	20%	▲ 12	14¢	25¢	$4.00	$450
Cristian Mungiu	19%	▼ 14	16¢	21¢	$4.76	$3.3K
Christopher Miller	13%	▲ 3	11¢	15¢	$6.67	$1.9K
Alejandro González Iñárritu	12%	▼ 3	11¢	13¢	$7.69	$891
Curry Barker	11%		9¢	13¢	$7.94	$116
Phil Lord	10%	▲ 2	7¢	13¢	$7.46	$1.8K
David Fincher	10%	▲ 2	7¢	13¢	$7.69	$181
Paweł Pawlikowski	10%		9¢	10¢	$10.00	$364
Mike Leigh	6%		2¢	10¢	$9.80	$520
Danny Boyle	6%		4¢	7¢	$14.29	$690
Andrew Haigh	6%		3¢	8¢	$12.50	$161
Beth de Araujo	6%		4¢	7¢	$14.29	$932
Na Hong-jin	6%		4¢	7¢	$14.29	$1K
Tony Gilroy	5%		3¢	7¢	$14.29	$589
Ben Affleck	5%		3¢	6¢	$16.67	$2K
Aaron Sorkin	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.41	$223
Joel Coen	4%		1¢	6¢	$15.63	$436
Steven Spielberg	3%		1¢	5¢	$19.23	$1.4K
Janus Metz Pedersen	3%		1¢	5¢	$22.22	$607
James Ashcroft	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.41	$392

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)Ryusuke HamaguchiKalshi 33%Polymarket 26%7 pts apart

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

96%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan96%
Javier Calvo89%
Martin McDonagh71%▲ 1
Nathan Fielder63%▼ 2

23 more

Denis Villeneuve59%▲ 3
Olivia Wilde54%▲ 2
Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%
Cristian Mungiu26%▼ 3
Jesse Eisenberg21%▼ 3
Alejandro González Iñárritu16%▲ 4
Phil Lord12%
Mike Leigh11%▲ 6
Curry Barker10%
Christopher Miller10%▼ 1
David Fincher10%▲ 1
Paweł Pawlikowski8%
Tony Gilroy8%
Steven Spielberg6%
Ben Affleck5%▲ 1
Andrew Haigh5%
Joel Coen5%
Na Hong-jin4%
Greta Gerwig4%
Beth de Araujo4%
Danny Boyle3%
Janus Metz Pedersen3%
James Ashcroft2%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Director Nominations

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Prince William Says He's A Christopher Nolan Super FanDeadline · 4 days agoPrince William has declared his love for Christopher Nolan films and The Celebrity Traitors in an unexpected appearance on The Graham Norton Show. Sitting on the BBC late-night show’s famous red sofa, the Prince of Wales told Norton that…
Prince William Declares His Love for Christopher Nolan Movies and ‘The Traitors’ in Surprise Appearance on ‘The Graham Norton Show’Variety · 4 days agoPrince William has made a surprise appearance on Graham Norton’s sofa, where he admits he’s a “big fan” of director Christopher Nolan and gameshow “The Traitors.” The episode, which was recorded on Thursday and will air in the U.K. on…
‘The Odyssey’ Artisans Talk Bringing Christopher Nolan’s Epic to Life With Practical Sets and Thousands of Costumes at Middleburg Film FestVariety · 4 days agoWhen Christopher Nolan gathered his team of artisans for his adaptation of Homer’s epic poem “The Odyssey” he first told production designer Ruth De Jong of his plans. But the process was shrouded in secrecy because working with Nolan is…
Johnny Depp’s Forgotten $100M AI Sci-Fi Movie Couldn’t Be Saved By Christopher Nolan – But You Can Now Stream It for FreeComicBook.com · 30 h agoAnthony Lund has spent more years than he would like to remember getting lost in movies, TV shows and toys. For that reason, writing on the subject comes naturally after more than 20 years working in and around the entertainment industry…
This Is the Only Horror Movie to Ever Win Best Picture at the Academy Awardsvice · 22 h agoComing to you from around the world, VICE Digital’s team strives to capture the people at the heart of stories, and focus on the ideas, issues, and context that other outlets miss. Get unlimited access to everything VICE has to offer…
THE PRESTIGE Returns! Watch the Teaser Trailer for Christopher Nolan’s 2027 IMAX Re-ReleaseGeekTyrant · 2 days agoEarlier this week we reported that one of Christopher Nolan’s best films is heading back to theaters, and this time, audiences will get to experience the magic on an even bigger screen. Now, Disney has released the first teaser trailer for…
WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning ActorWrestling Inc. · 29 h agoFormer World Heavyweight and Undisputed Champion Drew McIntyre says this renowned actor wants to join forces with him in the WWE. WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning Actor Once he comes back, WWE…
Clayface & Christopher Nolan’s Batman Trilogy Have 2 Surprising Things in CommonTV & Streaming News · 3 days agoHome » Clayface & Christopher Nolan’s Batman Trilogy Have 2 Surprising Things in Common DC Studios is bringing body horror to its cinematic universe with Clayface. Directed by James Watkins, the film follows Matt Hagen, a Hollywood actor…
Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the WarStanford University · 45 h agoStanford University Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the War Join us for a film screening of Lithuania's submission for the Academy Awards with commentary from Maarja…
Clayface includes a major location callback from Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins@soapcentral · 3 days agoFans noticed something in Clayface, as the DCU movie is playing in theaters: an Easter egg to DC's past on the big screen. After Matt Hagen's attack, the broke actor returns to the rough neighborhood he was raised in: the Narrows. If that…
Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 4 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
The Odyssey: Christopher Nolan's best box office debut of all timeKinoCheck · 4 days ago"The Odyssey" has barely hit theaters, and the epic starring Matt Damon has already broken a record! No other film by director Christopher Nolan has ever had such a successful opening at the global box office. As a result, its opening…

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All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

49%The Odyssey

The Odyssey49%▲ 4
You Can See Everything28%
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%▼ 1
The Black Ball95%▲ 2
Wild Horse Nine91%

50 more

Dune: Part Three84%▲ 1
You Can See Everything83%▲ 5
Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
The Debut74%
The Invite64%▲ 2
I Play Rocky56%▼ 2
Artificial54%▼ 1
All of a Sudden37%▼ 1
Obsession34%▲ 1
Fjord33%▼ 2
Elsinore30%
Wildwood28%▲ 2
Digger23%▼ 1
Club Kid22%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▼ 2
Being Heumann18%
Possible Love17%▲ 1
Behemoth15%▼ 1
Michael11%▼ 1
Primetime10%
Ink8%▲ 1
Josephine8%▲ 2
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother6%▼ 2
Sense and Sensibility5%▼ 1
Saturn Return5%▼ 1
Paper Tiger5%▲ 1
Misty Green4%
The Drama4%
Cry to Heaven4%▼ 1
1949 / Fatherland4%▲ 1
Minotaur4%▼ 1
The Whisper Man4%
Clarissa4%
Disclosure Day3%
Werwulf3%▼ 1
Parallel Tales3%
Rose3%
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
The Entertainment System Is Down2%
Hope2%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%
I Love Boosters2%
Avengers: Doomsday2%▼ 3
The Death of Robin Hood2%▼ 1
Jack of Spades2%
Backrooms2%▼ 1
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
The Social Reckoning1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations

89%La Nieve - The Black Ball

La Nieve - The Black Ball89%▼ 2
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut77%▲ 1
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 568%▼ 12

8 more

By Any Means - By Any Means66%▼ 1
When I'm Home - The Odyssey56%▲ 13
Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk52%▲ 25
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 245%▲ 22
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad35%▼ 3
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!11%▼ 25
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn6%▲ 6
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

92%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti92%
Andrew Garfield78%▼ 1
Sam Rockwell72%▲ 5

23 more

John Leguizamo66%▲ 2
Guitarricadelafuente55%▼ 17
Edward Norton44%▼ 14
Robert Pattinson30%
Steve Buscemi19%▼ 2
Riz Ahmed18%▼ 1
Colman Domingo17%▼ 3
John Goodman13%
Skyler Gisondo9%▲ 1
Jeremy Strong8%▲ 1
Guy Pearce7%▲ 2
James Ortiz7%
Himesh Patel6%▲ 1
Antonio Banderas6%
Miles Teller5%
Adam Scott5%▲ 1
Channing Tatum4%
Charles Melton4%▲ 2
Daniel Craig4%
Michael Fassbender4%▼ 4
Jesse Plemons3%
Tom Holland3%
Robert De Niro3%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

92%Matt Damon

Matt Damon92%▲ 1
John Malkovich86%▼ 1
Andrew Scott85%

16 more

Tom Cruise60%▲ 10
John Turturro47%
Anthony Ippolito47%▼ 3
Ryan Gosling44%▼ 1
Robert Pattinson33%▼ 11
Jaafar Jackson18%
Pedro Pascal17%▲ 1
Sebastian Stan16%▼ 3
Timothée Chalamet12%▲ 1
Sam Rockwell6%▼ 1
Josh O'Connor5%▲ 1
Adam Driver4%▼ 1
Brad Pitt4%
Javier Bardem4%
Robert Aramayo2%
Jeremy Strong2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

89%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway89%▲ 1
Samantha Morton77%▲ 1
Penélope Cruz77%

15 more

Tao Okamoto61%
Amanda Seyfried48%▲ 5
Kate O'Flynn41%
Mariana di Girolamo29%▲ 1
Sandra Hüller28%▲ 3
Parker Posey19%▼ 2
Merritt Wever18%
Gemma Chan16%▲ 4
Olivia Colman14%▼ 19
Danielle Deadwyler13%▲ 5
Betty Gilpin7%▲ 1
Zendaya6%▼ 2
Isabella Rossellini5%
Margaret Qualley4%▼ 1
Inde Navarrette1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMar 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$34.2K

Today$2.5K

This week$8.6K

At stake$5.9K

In the news15 headlines today, 301 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed director is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions