Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $335 today · $23.5K traded · $13.7K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%
The Invite88%▲ 1
The Black Ball87%▼ 1
Project Hail Mary69%▼ 6
All of a Sudden61%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three33%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth28%▲ 7
Ink20%
Clarissa14%▲ 1
Cry to Heaven14%
Wildwood9%
The Whisper Man8%▲ 1

3 more

Toy Story 56%
The Social Reckoning3%▼ 1
Saturn Return3%

How the odds have moved

The Odyssey: 93% on Oct 20, 94% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
The Odyssey	94%		91¢	96¢	$1.04	4.0K
The Invite	88%	▲ 1	87¢	89¢	$1.12	7.9K
The Black Ball	87%	▼ 1	83¢	91¢	$1.10	2.8K
Project Hail Mary	69%	▼ 6	67¢	71¢	$1.41	7.4K
All of a Sudden	61%	▲ 1	57¢	64¢	$1.56	2.6K
Dune: Part Three	33%	▲ 1	30¢	35¢	$2.86	5.8K
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth	28%	▲ 7	25¢	32¢	$3.13	3.1K
Ink	20%		16¢	24¢	$4.17	808
Clarissa	14%	▲ 1	11¢	16¢	$6.25	1.3K
Cry to Heaven	14%		9¢	18¢	$5.56	460
Wildwood	9%		5¢	13¢	$7.69	2.2K
The Whisper Man	8%	▲ 1	4¢	11¢	$9.09	326
Toy Story 5	6%		3¢	9¢	$11.11	1.5K
The Social Reckoning	3%	▼ 1	1¢	5¢	$20.00	5.6K
Saturn Return	3%			5¢	$20.00	1.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay (2027)Cry to HeavenKalshi 14%Polymarket 4%10 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations

94%The Invite

The Invite94%▼ 1
The Odyssey90%▲ 1
The Black Ball89%▼ 1
Project Hail Mary69%▼ 5

11 more

All of a Sudden52%▼ 9
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth30%▲ 4
Dune: Part Three28%
Ink19%▲ 6
Clarissa16%
Wildwood4%
Cry to Heaven4%
Saturn Return4%
The Social Reckoning4%
The Whisper Man3%
Toy Story 53%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Adapted Screenplay

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Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 2 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 2 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 7 h agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
Fulham climb out of drop zone after Oscar Bobb’s late show sinks Coventrythe Guardian · 7 h agoOscar Bobb’s first Premier League goal for Fulham earned a win against Coventry that lifted Álvaro Arbeloa’s side clear of the relegation zone. Bobb produced a fine bit of individual skill to score in the 80th minute, twisting his way into…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 29 h agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…
Oscar winner Melissa Leo to perform in KingstonDaily Freeman · 3 h agoKINGSTON, N.Y. — Academy Award winner Melissa Leo, a part-time Ulster County resident, will take the stage at the Arts Society of Kingston for a stage reading of “night, Mother,” Marsha Norman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning drama, on Saturday…
Medical Academy Awards N10m Gold Medal to Cardiologist Ogah, inducts 13 fellowsChampion of the Truth. · 2 days agoThe Academy of Medical Sciences of Nigeria has announced a N10 million Gold Medal Award for Professor Okechukwu Samuel Ogah, a cardiologist recognised for his contributions to cardiovascular research, medical education and healthcare in…
Jeon Do-yeon Defined an Era of Korean Cinema. With ‘Possible Love,’ She’s Become an Oscar ContenderThe Hollywood Reporter · 31 h agoThe decorated actor could become the first person from South Korea to be nominated for best actress — fitting, given her remarkable run onscreen: “I almost find myself wondering why it has taken the rest of the world so long to notice…
Zendaya Mounting Major Best Actress Oscar Campaign for Dune 3Outlook India · 18 h agoThis is a decisive shift from the earlier Dune films that pitched Zendaya in the supporting actress race Zendaya will be campaigning in the Oscars Best Actress race for Dune: Part Three. Denis Villeneuve returns to helm the third and final…
Oscar-winning cinematographer Mauro Fiore calls Nebraska homeKMTV 3 News Now Omaha · 20 h agoELKHORN, Neb. (KMTV) — Filmmaking may be synonymous with Hollywood, but one of the industry's acclaimed cinematographers makes his home right here in Nebraska. Oscar-winning cinematographer Mauro Fiore lives in the Elkhorn area with his…
Red Bull is now F1's “most consistently quick car” says Oscar PiastriYahoo Sports · 2 days agoAfter what was a very successful couple of weekends from Max Verstappen, McLaren's Oscar Piastri believes that Red Bull is now the most consistently fast team on the Formula 1 grid after its recent upgrades rocketed it to the top of the…
‘Fighting an impossible fight is the only way to reclaim dignity’: Lee Chang-dong on class warfare and his searing Oscar contenderthe Guardian · 36 h agoThe auteur’s new film – a study of labour, capital and the fallout of redundancy – won the grand jury prize at Venice. Telling tales of the disenfranchised is ‘our moral responsibility’, he saysA quintessential 21st-century horror story: a…

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Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

44%The Odyssey

The Odyssey44%▲ 1
You Can See Everything29%
La Bola Negra14%

24 more

Dune: Part Three7%▼ 1
Digger3%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial<1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
The Invite<1%
The Drama<1%
Behemoth!<1%
Josephine<1%
Tony<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
The Debut<1%
Obsession<1%
I Play Rocky<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Saturn Return<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Clarissa<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fatherland<1%
Michael<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton75%▼ 1

15 more

Tao Okamoto62%▼ 2
Amanda Seyfried46%▼ 14
Kate O'Flynn41%▲ 1
Olivia Colman33%▲ 4
Mariana di Girolamo29%▲ 1
Sandra Hüller22%▼ 9
Parker Posey21%▼ 1
Merritt Wever18%▲ 6
Gemma Chan12%▲ 3
Danielle Deadwyler11%▼ 8
Zendaya7%▲ 1
Betty Gilpin6%▼ 1
Isabella Rossellini5%
Margaret Qualley4%▲ 1
Inde Navarrette1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

92%Matt Damon

Matt Damon92%▼ 2
John Malkovich88%
Andrew Scott85%

16 more

Tom Cruise51%▼ 11
Ryan Gosling45%▼ 3
John Turturro45%▲ 1
Robert Pattinson44%
Anthony Ippolito39%▲ 11
Sebastian Stan19%
Pedro Pascal16%▲ 2
Jaafar Jackson16%▼ 1
Timothée Chalamet11%▼ 2
Sam Rockwell7%▲ 1
Adam Driver5%
Josh O'Connor5%
Javier Bardem4%
Brad Pitt4%
Robert Aramayo3%
Jeremy Strong2%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

90%The Debut

The Debut90%▲ 7
Wild Horse Nine90%▼ 4
Club Kid59%▼ 5

15 more

Obsession54%▲ 6
Fjord49%▲ 3
Elsinore34%▲ 8
Behemoth!24%▲ 2
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma19%
The Drama17%▼ 3
Josephine13%▲ 4
Digger13%▼ 2
Fatherland6%▲ 1
Forgotten Island4%▼ 2
The Odyssey4%
The Invite4%
A Place in Hell4%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
The Black Ball2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%
La Bola Negra95%
Wild Horse Nine91%▼ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut77%▼ 1
You Can See Everything76%▼ 5
The Invite62%▲ 1
I Play Rocky50%▲ 7
All of a Sudden38%▲ 1
Fjord37%
Obsession32%▲ 2
Elsinore30%▼ 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth24%
Digger19%
Behemoth!18%▲ 1
Michael11%
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▼ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations

96%The Black Ball

The Black Ball96%
The Odyssey85%▼ 3
Project Hail Mary68%▼ 1

8 more

Dune: Part Three63%
Digger60%▼ 3
Werwulf46%▼ 2
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth37%▲ 10
Sense and Sensibility34%▼ 3
Backrooms18%
Wuthering Heights11%▲ 3
Wildwood4%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$23.5K (47,746 contracts)

Today$335

This week$23.5K

At stake$13.7K

In the news21 headlines today, 339 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Clarissa has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.