Oscar Winner: Best Director (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.3K today · $55.5K traded · $36.2K at stake · prices read 18 min ago

The odds

54%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan54%▲ 3
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi8%
Denis Villeneuve7%▼ 2
Martin McDonagh3%
Alejandro G. Iñárritu2%
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller1%
Danny Boyle1%
Na Hong-jin1%
Andrew Haigh1%
Steven Spielberg1%
David Fincher1%
Joel Coen1%

6 more

Tie1%
Janus Metz Pedersen1%
Ben Affleck1%
Olivia Wilde1%
Mike Leigh1%
Jesse Eisenberg1%

How the odds have moved

Christopher Nolan: 56% on Oct 20, 54% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Christopher Nolan	54%	▲ 3	53¢	55¢	$1.82	93.1K
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi	8%		7¢	8¢	$12.50	17.0K
Denis Villeneuve	7%	▼ 2	6¢	7¢	$14.29	34.7K
Martin McDonagh	3%		2¢	3¢	$33.33	26.4K
Alejandro G. Iñárritu	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	28.5K
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller	1%			1¢	$100.00	12.6K
Danny Boyle	1%			1¢	$100.00	9.0K
Na Hong-jin	1%			1¢	$100.00	989
Andrew Haigh	1%			1¢	$100.00	315
Steven Spielberg	1%			1¢	$100.00	5.5K
David Fincher	1%			1¢	$100.00	13.6K
Joel Coen	1%			1¢	$100.00	779
Tie	1%			1¢	$100.00	4.4K
Janus Metz Pedersen	1%			1¢	$100.00	140
Ben Affleck	1%			1¢	$100.00	293
Olivia Wilde	1%			1¢	$100.00	10.9K
Mike Leigh	1%			1¢	$100.00	1.3K
Jesse Eisenberg	1%			1¢	$100.00	5.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar Winner: Best Director (2027)Javier Calvo or Javier AmbrossiKalshi 8%Polymarket 11%4 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner

57%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan57%
Lance Oppenheim12%▼ 4
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi11%
Denis Villeneuve9%▼ 1

17 more

Martin McDonagh2%
Alejandro G. Iñárritu2%
Olivia Wilde2%
Aaron Sorkin1%
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller1%
Peter Farrelly1%
Jesse Eisenberg<1%
Andrew Haigh<1%
Joel Coen<1%
Cristian Mungiu<1%
David Fincher<1%
Mike Leigh<1%
Steven Spielberg<1%
Ryusuke Hamaguchi<1%
Jordan Firstman<1%
Bassam Tariq<1%
David O. Russell<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Director

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Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 3 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the WarStanford University · 16 h agoStanford University Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the War Join us for a film screening of Lithuania's submission for the Academy Awards with commentary from Maarja…
We Need to Bully the Academy Into Nominating Olivia Wilde for Best Director for ‘The Invite’Decider · 31 h agoStream It Or Skip It: ‘Holiday Touchdown: A Bears Love Story’ on Hallmark, Another Solid Christmas Collab Between the NFL and Hallmark Where Was the ‘Love Of Your Life’ Movie Filmed? Discover the Filming Locations for Margaret Qualley’s…
The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 26 h agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 3 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
Best Director Oscars 2027 Contenders & Predictions: Christopher Nolan, Martin McDonagh, Olivia Wilde In The MixThe Playlist · 4 days agoJack Lowden, Callum Turner, & Josh O’Connor Among James Bond Finalists; Screen Tests Start This Weekend ‘Carrie’ Renewed For Season 2 At Prime Video As Mike Flanagan & Stephen King Plan To Go Beyond Prom Night ‘Poison Ivy’: ‘The Penguin’…
Oscar Piastri warns COTA bumps could become an overtaking hazard at US GPYahoo Sports · 19 h agoMcLaren's Oscar Piastri has compared the bump on the approach to Turn 1 at the Circuit of the Americas to "a motocross jump" after qualifying seventh for the United States Grand Prix. The Australian driver finished 0.768 seconds behind…
Fulham climb out of drop zone after Oscar Bobb’s late show sinks Coventrythe Guardian · 27 h agoOscar Bobb’s first Premier League goal for Fulham earned a win against Coventry that lifted Álvaro Arbeloa’s side clear of the relegation zone. Bobb produced a fine bit of individual skill to score in the 80th minute, twisting his way into…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 48 h agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…
Oscar winner Melissa Leo to perform in KingstonDaily Freeman · 22 h agoKINGSTON, N.Y. — Academy Award winner Melissa Leo, a part-time Ulster County resident, will take the stage at the Arts Society of Kingston for a stage reading of “night, Mother,” Marsha Norman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning drama, on Saturday…
Jeon Do-yeon Defined an Era of Korean Cinema. With ‘Possible Love,’ She’s Become an Oscar ContenderThe Hollywood Reporter · 2 days agoThe decorated actor could become the first person from South Korea to be nominated for best actress — fitting, given her remarkable run onscreen: “I almost find myself wondering why it has taken the rest of the world so long to notice…
Medical Academy Awards N10m Gold Medal to Cardiologist Ogah, inducts 13 fellowsChampion of the Truth. · 3 days agoThe Academy of Medical Sciences of Nigeria has announced a N10 million Gold Medal Award for Professor Okechukwu Samuel Ogah, a cardiologist recognised for his contributions to cardiovascular research, medical education and healthcare in…

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Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$55.5K (264,553 contracts)

Today$1.3K

At stake$36.2K

In the news23 headlines today, 323 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Phil Lord & Christopher Miller has won Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions