Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $245 today · $55.2K traded · $11K at stake · prices read 13 min ago

The odds

58%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan58%
  • Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi13%▲ 1
  • Denis Villeneuve12%▲ 3
  • Lance Oppenheim8%▼ 4
  • Olivia Wilde1%
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu1%
  • Aaron Sorkin1%
  • Martin McDonagh1%▼ 1
  • Andrew Haigh1%
  • Joel Coen1%
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi1%
  • David Fincher1%
9 more
  • Mike Leigh1%
  • Steven Spielberg<1%
  • Phil Lord or Christopher Miller<1%
  • Peter Farrelly<1%
  • Cristian Mungiu<1%
  • Jesse Eisenberg<1%
  • Jordan Firstman<1%
  • Bassam Tariq<1%
  • David O. Russell<1%

How the odds have moved

Christopher Nolan: 62% on Oct 20, 58% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Christopher Nolan 58% 56¢ 61¢ $1.64 $27K
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi 13% ▲ 1 9¢ 17¢ $5.88 $1.6K
Denis Villeneuve 12% ▲ 3 10¢ 14¢ $7.14 $12.7K
Lance Oppenheim 8% ▼ 4 2¢ 14¢ $7.09 $1.8K
Olivia Wilde 1% 1¢ 2¢ $52.63 $947
Alejandro G. Iñárritu 1% 0¢ 3¢ $37.04 $2.4K
Aaron Sorkin 1% 0¢ 1¢ $90.91 $811
Martin McDonagh 1% ▼ 1 0¢ 1¢ $100.00 $888
Andrew Haigh 1% 1¢ $100.00 $75
Joel Coen 1% 1¢ $100.00 $87
Ryusuke Hamaguchi 1% 0¢ 1¢ $548
David Fincher 1% 1¢ $100.00 $75
Mike Leigh 1% 1¢ $100.00 $87
Steven Spielberg <1% 0¢ 1¢ $805
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller <1% 0¢ 1¢ $965
Peter Farrelly <1% 0¢ 1¢ $1K
Cristian Mungiu <1% 0¢ 1¢ $548
Jesse Eisenberg <1% 0¢ 1¢ $795
Jordan Firstman <1% 0¢ $688
Bassam Tariq <1% 0¢ $607
David O. Russell <1% 0¢ $683

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar Winner: Best Director (2027)

56%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan56%▲ 2
  • Denis Villeneuve8%▲ 1
  • Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi8%
  • Martin McDonagh3%
14 more
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu2%
  • Phil Lord & Christopher Miller1%
  • Danny Boyle1%
  • Na Hong-jin1%
  • Andrew Haigh1%
  • Steven Spielberg1%
  • David Fincher1%
  • Joel Coen1%
  • Tie1%
  • Janus Metz Pedersen1%
  • Ben Affleck1%
  • Olivia Wilde1%
  • Mike Leigh1%
  • Jesse Eisenberg1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2027 · $329 today · $58K traded

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The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Director

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Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey48%▲ 4
  • You Can See Everything28%▼ 1
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%
Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

98%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey98%
  • The Black Ball95%
  • Wild Horse Nine91%
50 more
  • Dune: Part Three82%▼ 1
  • You Can See Everything82%▲ 4
  • Project Hail Mary75%▼ 1
  • The Debut74%
  • The Invite62%▲ 1
  • I Play Rocky57%▼ 1
  • Artificial55%▼ 1
  • All of a Sudden36%▼ 2
  • Fjord35%
  • Obsession33%
  • Elsinore30%▼ 1
  • Wildwood28%▲ 2
  • Digger23%▼ 1
  • Club Kid22%▼ 1
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▼ 2
  • Being Heumann17%▼ 1
  • Possible Love17%▲ 1
  • Behemoth14%▼ 1
  • Michael11%▼ 1
  • Primetime10%▼ 1
  • Josephine8%▲ 2
  • Ink8%▲ 2
  • Sense and Sensibility6%▼ 1
  • Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother6%▼ 2
  • Saturn Return5%▼ 1
  • Misty Green4%▲ 1
  • 1949 / Fatherland4%▲ 1
  • Paper Tiger4%
  • Minotaur4%▼ 1
  • Disclosure Day3%
  • Werwulf3%▼ 3
  • The Drama3%▼ 1
  • The Whisper Man3%▼ 1
  • The Uprising3%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
  • Clarissa3%▼ 1
  • Cry to Heaven3%▼ 2
  • Parallel Tales3%
  • Rose3%▼ 1
  • The Entertainment System Is Down2%▼ 1
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
  • I Love Boosters2%
  • Avengers: Doomsday2%▼ 2
  • The Death of Robin Hood2%▼ 1
  • Jack of Spades2%
  • Hope2%▼ 1
  • Backrooms2%▼ 1
  • Tony2%
  • Bucking Fastard2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner

54%La Nieve - The Black Ball
  • La Nieve - The Black Ball54%▼ 5
  • This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut29%▲ 14
  • I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 512%▼ 3
8 more
  • Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk2%▼ 6
  • Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 21%▲ 1
  • Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!1%
  • By Any Means - By Any Means<1%
  • When I'm Home - The Odyssey<1%
  • Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn<1%
  • Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights<1%
  • How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions