Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

Polymarket Economy › Central banks Closes Nov 3 · $3.4K today · $15K traded · $27.5K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

74%No change

No change74%▼ 8
25 bps increase25%▲ 9
25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
No change	74%	▼ 8	74¢	75¢	$1.33	$58.6K
25 bps increase	25%	▲ 9	25¢	26¢	$3.86	$48.8K
25 bps decrease	<1%		0¢	0¢		$17.6K
50+ bps increase	<1%		0¢	0¢		$16.6K
50+ bps decrease	<1%			0¢		$8.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on ForecastEx

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in NovemberHike 25 bpPolymarket 25%ForecastEx 15%10 pts apart

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision (Nov 3, 2026)

80%Hold

Hold80%
Hike 25 bp15%
Cut 25 bp5%
Hike 50+ bp<1%

1 more

Cut 50+ bp<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Kalshi

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November (Nov 2, 2026 meeting)Hike 25 bpKalshi 23%Polymarket 25%3 pts apart

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November (Nov 2, 2026 meeting)

74%Maintain current rate

Maintain current rate74%▼ 7
Hike 1-25bps22%▲ 6
Cut more than 25bps1%
Cut 1-25bps1%

1 more

Hike more than 25bps1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Reserve Bank of Australia Decision

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All central banks ›

Economy › Central banks

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

70%No change

No change70%▲ 1
25 bps increase22%
50+ bps increase4%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%▼ 1

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

78%25 bps increase

25 bps increase78%▲ 62
No Change21%▼ 63
50+ bps increase<1%

2 more

25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Russia decision in October?

86%No Change

No Change86%▼ 6
Decrease12%▲ 2
Increase<1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of England decision in November?

95%25 bps increase

25 bps increase95%▲ 2
No change4%▼ 3
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › Central banks

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

96%No change

No change96%
25 bps increase4%
50+ bps decrease<1%

2 more

25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps increase<1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

51%No Change

No Change51%▼ 1
25 bps increase47%
50+ bps increase1%

2 more

50+ bps decrease1%▼ 1
25 bps decrease<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$15K

Today$3.4K

This week$15K

At stake$27.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 20

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.