ECB Interest Rates in Oct 2026
96%0bps (Unchanged)
- 0bps (Unchanged)96%
- Hike <=25bps4%
- Cut <=25bps2%
- Cut >25bps2%
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%
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ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
The odds
98%No change
- No change98%
- 25 bps increase2%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
How the odds have moved
No change: 96% on Oct 20, 98% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 98% | 98¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | $283K | |
| 25 bps increase | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $212K | |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $36K | |||
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $40.8K | |||
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | 0¢ | $86.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- ECB Interest Rates: October 2026HoldPolymarket 98%Crypto.com 96%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on ForecastEx
- ECB Interest Rates: October 2026HoldPolymarket 98%ForecastEx 77%21 pts apart
ECB Decision (Oct 29, 2026)
77%Hold
- Hold77%
- Hike 50+ bp8%
- Hike 25 bp7%
- Cut 25 bp7%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 97%Polymarket 98%1 pts apart
European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
97%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate97%
- Hike 1-25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?Although the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are… -
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false… -
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social… -
FOMC Meeting Puts Fed Interest Rate Decision in Focus as Inflation RisesUS inflation accelerated in September, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.7% year over year. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures changes in prices received by businesses, increased 1.3% from August. Higher energy… -
Gold gains on softer oil prices; Fed decision in focusGold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices tempered inflation concerns, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,009.87 per ounce by 0342 GMT, after hitting its… -
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial… -
Bitcoin slips under $80,000 as traders de-risk ahead of Fed meetingBitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $79,800 as of Monday Asian morning hours as traders cut risk ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and another leg down in the AI trade weighed on tech stocks across the region. Selling hit almost… - September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
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Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekThey all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections that will determine the future makeup of Congress as the U.S. economy grapples with constantly shifting global trade conflicts and a global oil shortage brought on by the U.S… -
British Pound edges higher vs weak USD as focus remains glued to this week's FOMC meetingThe GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.3360 area during the Asian session on Friday, stalling last week's modest pullback from its highest level since September 16. Bulls, however, might await sustained strength and… -
Fed-up driver builds AI litter trackerRobin Bennett said he created the app after becoming frustrated by the amount of rubbish beside roads. A software developer became so frustrated by the amount of rubbish he saw dumped along roadsides that he built an AI-powered "litter… -
XRP Sees Bullish Exchange Shift Ahead of Fed Decision: Is a Recovery Taking Shape?XRP withdrawal transactions reached 55.75% on Binance and 54.85% across centralized exchanges, approaching their August highs. The Federal Reserve's October 28 policy decision could influence XRP's next move as traders look for signs of…
Related markets
All central banks ›Bank of Brazil decision in December?
53%No Change
- No Change53%▲ 30
- 25 bps decrease34%▼ 25
- 50+ bps increase9%▲ 8
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease2%▼ 15
- 25 bps increase1%
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
81%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps81%▼ 1
- Maintains rate17%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps1%▲ 1
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
60%No Change
- No Change60%▲ 42
- 25 bps decrease23%▼ 57
- 50+ bps increase11%▲ 10
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease3%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase2%▲ 2
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
5median
57
Median 5Middle half 5 – 6
Bank of Israel rate decision in November (Nov 23, 2026 meeting)
53%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate53%▼ 14
- Cut 1-25bps44%▲ 19
- Hike 1-25bps1%
2 more
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps<1%
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
91%No change
- No change91%▲ 8
- 25 bps decrease9%▼ 7
- 25 bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions