Bank of England decision in November?

Polymarket Economy › Central banks Closes Nov 5 · $101 today · $415K traded · $93.4K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

97%25 bps increase

25 bps increase97%
No change3%
50+ bps increase<1%
25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

How the odds have moved

25 bps increase: 95% on Oct 20, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
25 bps increase	97%	97¢	97¢	$1.03	$154K
No change	3%	2¢	3¢	$34.48	$114K
50+ bps increase	<1%	0¢	1¢		$62.2K
25 bps decrease	<1%	0¢	0¢		$50K
50+ bps decrease	<1%		0¢		$34.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Bank of England rate decision in November (Nov 5, 2026 meeting)Hike 25 bpKalshi 96%Polymarket 97%1 pts apart

Bank of England rate decision in November (Nov 5, 2026 meeting)

96%Hike 1-25bps

Hike 1-25bps96%
Maintain current rate3%▼ 1
Cut more than 25bps1%
Cut 1-25bps1%

1 more

Hike more than 25bps1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Bank of England

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Interest rates unlikely to reach 4.75% by next summer, say City economiststhe Guardian · 2 days agoExperts say Bank of England unlikely to increase rates by full percentage point – and could lower them by end of 2027 Financial markets are wrong to predict the Bank of England will raise UK interest rates by a full percentage point or…
What do North East businesses need from the Budget?BBC News · 2 days agoA leading economist has called on Chancellor John Healey to do more to help local businesses in the upcoming Budget. Sunderland-born Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England, said north-east England firms had faced a…
Car parks and roads shut as development work startsBBC News · 2 days agoTwo car parks in a city centre are to close as the construction of a housing development begins. The car park near Hay Street and the car park opposite St Peter's Metro Station in Sunderland will shut from Monday as works start to…
Goods and services the super El Niño could make more expensive – and whyThe Independent · 2 days agoThe Bank of England has identified El Niño as a key factor that could drive food inflation in 2027 This year’s El Niño, the natural weather phenomenon that drives variations in temperature and winds across the Pacific, has prompted the UK…
Warning issued to anyone with a credit card in the UKExpress.co.uk · 2 days ago"For most of the last year, apart from the usual competitive flick-flacks, top balance transfer deals — which let you cut the cost of existing debt — have barely budged," he explained. "Yet that could soon change, with markets pricing in…
A Labour Market in Cooling, not DeteriorationNIESR · 3 days ago“Regular pay growth held steady at 3.4 per cent in the three months to April, as softer private sector wage growth was offset by higher public sector pay settlements. Vacancies… To access the content, membership account is required. Get…
FCA Issues Final Crypto Authorization Rules: Registration Alone Won’t Cut ItParameter · 47 h ago9 of Top 10 UK Retail Banks Block or Limit Crypto Transactions — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 16, 2026 According to the FCA, companies cannot depend on their own business classifications. The regulator will assess authorization…
Martin Lewis says 'I'm concerned' ahead of Bank of England November 5 announcementDaily Mirror · 4 days agoMartin Lewis urged people with credit or store card debt to act quickly Martin Lewis says that people with credit card debt should 'act sooner', ahead of a key Bank of England announcement next month. Speaking as part of his BBC podcast…
US Says Venezuela Freed Over 1,000 PrisonersThe Rio Times · 48 h agoThis story is part of our coverage of the Venezuela US tensions. Who runs Venezuela, the US sanctions and oil deals, the Maduro case and the odds are in our dossier. Latest: Machado’s Venezuela Return Odds Slip to 23% The US says more than…
Andy Burnham's first Budget must be 'turning point' for Britain, union chief demandsDaily Mirror · 47 h agoBudget will be Andy Burnham's first real test in power, Unite chief Sharon Graham says(Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images) Andy Burnham's first Budget in power must be a turning point for Britain, one of Labour's most influential union…
Could Hormuz become America’s Suez?Middle East Monitor · 2 days agoOctober 25, 2026 at 12:10 pm After Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalised the Suez Canal in July 1956, Britain, France and Israel launched a military campaign to regain control of the canal and weaken Nasser’s government. Their…
Liz Truss insists her radical mini-Budget measures WOULD have workedDaily Mail · 3 days agoLiz Truss has mounted a trenchant defence of her chaotic, short-lived stint as Prime Minister by arguing that the economy is in a more fragile state under Andy Burnham than during her 49 days in Downing Street. Ms Truss uses a new book to…

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25 bps decrease<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 5, 2026 6:59 PM ET

Traded$415K

Today$101

This week$5.5K

At stake$93.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant da

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

FTSE 100^FTSE · moves with it10,668.50−0.92%
EUR/GBPEURGBP=X · moves with it0.8368−0.08%
GBP/USDGBPUSD=X · moves with it1.3307−0.26%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions