Bank of Canada Decision (Oct 28, 2026)
72%Hike 25 bp
- Hike 25 bp72%
- Hold20%
- Cut 25 bp8%
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Install
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
The odds
85%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase85%▲ 2
- No Change15%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
25 bps increase: 73% on Oct 20, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 8 PM ET25 bps increase: 71% → 82%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 85% | ▲ 2 | 84¢ | 86¢ | $1.17 | $184K |
| No Change | 15% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.33 | $2K |
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | 0¢ | $50.4K | |||
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $48.6K | |||
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $23.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- Bank of Canada Decision in October?Hike 25 bpPolymarket 85%ForecastEx 72%13 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?Hike 25 bpKalshi 84%Polymarket 85%1 pts apart
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
84%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps84%▲ 4
- Maintains rate15%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%▼ 1
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Bank of Canada Decision
Search ›- Crypto News | Fed, ECB, BOJ and Bank of Canada Decisions Headline a Crowded Week, With Q3 GDP, PCE and Crypto-Firm Earnings Also DueCentral bank decisions dominate the week starting October 26. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada set rates on Wednesday, the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday in To ...
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Bank of Canada: October hold despite market pricing – TD SecuritiesTD Securities’ Macro Research team, led by Robert Both and Emma Lawrence, expects the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate at 2.25% at the October 28 meeting, despite markets pricing around 20bps of tightening. They argue recent… -
USD/CAD Forecast: Signal Ahead of Fed and BoC Interest Rate DecisionsThe USD/CAD pair has stabilized today as investors wait for major events this week. It rose to 1.4020 on Monday, a few points above last Friday’s low of 1.3967. This pullback will now be put to the test as the US publishes important macro… -
Canadian retail sales likely rose again in September, keeping next week's rate call tightBriefs Finance helps everyday people get better with money and invest with confidence, from getting out of debt all the way to investing like an expert. It starts with Market Briefs, a free five-minute daily newsletter, and grows into… -
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Why the Oct. 28 interest rate decision is shaping up to be the ‘most dramatic’ in agesThe Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision Oct. 28 as inflation reaches 3.1 per cent and analysts differ on whether rates could rise. The Bank of Canada will be announcing its latest interest rate on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Financial… -
Bank of Canada interest rate forecast: What to expect on October 28By MoneySense Editors on October 22, 2026 Estimated reading time: 5 minutes Markets are betting the Bank of Canada will end its year-long pause on rates. One mortgage expert isn't so sure. The Bank of Canada will announce its next interest… -
USA & Canada Intelligence Brief — Wednesday, October 21, 2026USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for October 21: Alberta votes to stay in Canada, US alleges election interference, Bank of Canada decides Oct 28. North America’s temper on Wednesday is a study in defensive unity, as Canada absorbs…
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All central banks ›Bank of Canada Decision in December?
49%No Change
- No Change49%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase47%▼ 3
- 50+ bps increase2%▲ 1
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
98%No change
- No change98%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase1%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
87%No change
- No change87%▼ 5
- 25 bps decrease12%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase<1%
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- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Bank of Brazil decision in November?
59%No Change
- No Change59%▼ 17
- 25 bps decrease32%▲ 19
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- 50+ bps decrease1%▼ 1
Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
61%No change
- No change61%▼ 10
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase10%▲ 2
2 more
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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
56%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase56%▲ 42
- No change38%▼ 29
- 25 bps decrease3%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase3%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions