Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November (Nov 2, 2026 meeting)
52%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate52%▼ 22
- Hike 1-25bps40%▲ 17
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%
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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
70%Hold
- Hold70%
- Hike 25 bp25%
- Cut 25 bp5%
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
How the odds have moved
Hold: 80% on Oct 20, 70% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on ForecastEx. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 5 AM ETHold: 80% → 70%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | 70% | $1.43 | 20.00 | |||
| Hike 25 bp | 25% | $4.00 | 10.00 | |||
| Cut 25 bp | 5% | $20.00 | 10.00 | |||
| Hike 50+ bp | <1% | |||||
| Cut 50+ bp | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Kalshi
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November (Nov 2, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 54%ForecastEx 70%16 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in NovemberHike 25 bpPolymarket 46%ForecastEx 25%21 pts apart
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
53%No change
- No change53%▼ 22
- 25 bps increase45%▲ 20
- 50+ bps increase1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Reserve Bank of Australia Decision
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Australia's Credit Card Tax Ban Fiasco: Government Knew in July, Businesses Kept in DarkThe Australian government is facing mounting criticism after conceding it knew as early as July that the tax office planned to stop accepting credit card payments, yet small businesses were not informed until the eve of the ban taking…
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Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
7median
57
Median 7Middle half 6 – 7
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.