Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Polymarket Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31 · $1.2K today · $1.5M traded · $131K at stake · prices read 27 min ago

The odds

36%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles36%▲ 2
  • Dan Scavino29%
  • Kristi Noem28%
  • Pete Hegseth27%▼ 2
  • Markwayne Mullin25%▼ 3
  • Tom Homan22%▲ 1
  • Russell Vought21%▲ 2
  • Howard Lutnick16%▲ 4
  • Kash Patel14%▲ 1
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▲ 1
  • Lee Zeldin11%▲ 3
  • David Sacks9%
4 more
  • Stephen Miller9%▼ 1
  • John Ratcliffe9%▼ 1
  • Scott Bessent8%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio7%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Susie Wiles: 39% on Oct 20, 36% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
✓ Karoline Leavitt >99% ▲ 80 100¢ 100¢ $77.1K
✓ Tulsi Gabbard >99% ▲ 40 100¢ 100¢ $101K
✓ Pam Bondi >99% ▼ 2 100¢ 100¢ $365K
✓ Dan Bongino >99% ▲ 16 100¢ 100¢ $5.1K
✓ Lori Chavez-DeRemer >99% ▲ 17 100¢ 100¢ $7.1K
Susie Wiles 36% ▲ 2 34¢ 37¢ $2.70 $66.4K
Dan Scavino 29% 4¢ 53¢ $1.89 $137
Kristi Noem 28% 21¢ 35¢ $2.84 $99.5K
Pete Hegseth 27% ▼ 2 25¢ 29¢ $3.45 $142K
Markwayne Mullin 25% ▼ 3 15¢ 35¢ $2.86 $2.9K
Tom Homan 22% ▲ 1 10¢ 34¢ $2.94 $643
Russell Vought 21% ▲ 2 13¢ 29¢ $3.45 $459
Howard Lutnick 16% ▲ 4 14¢ 18¢ $5.56 $101K
Kash Patel 14% ▲ 1 10¢ 18¢ $5.56 $311K
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 13% ▲ 1 11¢ 15¢ $6.67 $93.5K
Lee Zeldin 11% ▲ 3 8¢ 14¢ $7.14 $34.6K
David Sacks 9% 6¢ 13¢ $7.58 $10.2K
Stephen Miller 9% ▼ 1 4¢ 14¢ $7.14 $6.7K
John Ratcliffe 9% ▼ 1 4¢ 13¢ $7.69 $698
Scott Bessent 8% ▼ 1 4¢ 11¢ $9.09 $14.6K
Marco Rubio 7% ▲ 1 4¢ 10¢ $10.00 $24.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

69%Ric Grenell
  • Ric Grenell69%▼ 2
  • Susie Wiles38%▲ 1
  • Amy Gleason32%▲ 1
  • Doug Collins30%▼ 1
27 more
  • Pete Hegseth30%▲ 2
  • Bill Pulte24%
  • Howard Lutnick20%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon19%
  • Steve Witkoff19%▲ 2
  • Kash Patel17%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins17%
  • Scott Turner17%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.16%▲ 3
  • Mike Huckabee16%
  • Chris Wright15%▲ 1
  • John Ratcliffe15%▲ 3
  • Peter Navarro14%
  • Tom Homan14%▼ 1
  • Sean Duffy13%▲ 1
  • Russell Vought13%▲ 1
  • Rodney Scott13%▲ 1
  • Jamieson Greer12%
  • Steven Cheung12%
  • Kelly Loeffler11%
  • Mehmet Oz11%
  • Doug Burgum11%
  • Brendan Carr11%
  • Marco Rubio9%
  • Stephen Miller9%▼ 1
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 2
  • Scott Bessent7%▼ 1
KalshiCloses Jan 1, 2027 · $4K today · $1.8M traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Susie Wiles, Dan Scavino

Search ›

Who will be arrested before 2027?

22%James Comey
  • James Comey22%▲ 16
  • John Brennan21%
  • Mahmoud Khalil21%▲ 3
21 more
  • Lee Jun-seok15%▲ 4
  • Anthony Fauci8%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan8%▼ 7
  • Candace Owens6%▲ 1
  • Lisa Cook6%▲ 1
  • James Clapper6%
  • Susan Rice6%▼ 1
  • Hillary Clinton5%▲ 4
  • Letitia James5%▲ 1
  • Pam Bondi5%▼ 1
  • Adam Schiff5%▲ 1
  • Benjamin Netanyahu4%
  • José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%
  • Brandon Johnson4%▼ 1
  • Gavin Newsom3%
  • Kash Patel2%
  • Loretta Lynch2%
  • Bill Clinton2%
  • Barack Obama2%
  • John Kerry2%
  • Joe Biden1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions