Oscar nominees: Best Actor (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $813 today · $196K traded · $90.7K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

The odds

93%Matt Damon
  • Matt Damon93%
  • John Malkovich90%▼ 2
  • Andrew Scott84%▲ 1
  • Anthony Ippolito53%▲ 2
  • Tom Cruise51%▼ 4
  • Ryan Gosling47%
  • John Turturro46%▲ 2
  • Robert Pattinson46%
  • Yura Borisov22%
  • Sebastian Stan16%
  • Pedro Pascal14%
  • Timothée Chalamet14%▼ 1
22 more
  • Jaafar Jackson13%▼ 2
  • Mahershala Ali9%
  • Tom Holland7%▲ 1
  • Adam Driver6%▲ 3
  • Sam Rockwell5%
  • Andrew Garfield5%▼ 1
  • Dominic Sessa5%
  • Robert Aramayo4%▼ 4
  • Javier Bardem4%▼ 1
  • Adam Scott4%▼ 1
  • Josh O'Connor4%▲ 1
  • Channing Tatum4%▲ 2
  • Jeremy Strong4%
  • Keanu Reeves3%
  • Brad Pitt3%
  • Guy Pearce3%
  • Jeremy Allen White3%
  • Robert DeNiro3%
  • Sacha Baron Cohen3%
  • Hanns Zischler2%
  • Ethan Hawke2%
  • Charles Melton1%

How the odds have moved

Matt Damon: 92% on Oct 20, 93% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Matt Damon 93% 92¢ 93¢ $1.08 35.4K
John Malkovich 90% ▼ 2 81¢ 92¢ $1.09 18.2K
Andrew Scott 84% ▲ 1 83¢ 85¢ $1.18 29.0K
Anthony Ippolito 53% ▲ 2 52¢ 53¢ $1.89 14.7K
Tom Cruise 51% ▼ 4 50¢ 52¢ $1.92 72.9K
Ryan Gosling 47% 46¢ 47¢ $2.13 59.2K
John Turturro 46% ▲ 2 44¢ 48¢ $2.08 12.9K
Robert Pattinson 46% 45¢ 46¢ $2.17 47.5K
Yura Borisov 22% 18¢ 25¢ $4.00 3.7K
Sebastian Stan 16% 15¢ 16¢ $6.25 18.0K
Pedro Pascal 14% 14¢ 15¢ $6.67 42.0K
Timothée Chalamet 14% ▼ 1 13¢ 15¢ $6.67 27.0K
Jaafar Jackson 13% ▼ 2 11¢ 15¢ $6.67 37.6K
Mahershala Ali 9% 6¢ 11¢ $9.09 4.1K
Tom Holland 7% ▲ 1 2¢ 12¢ $8.33 2.1K
Adam Driver 6% ▲ 3 1¢ 10¢ $10.00 7.0K
Sam Rockwell 5% 4¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.7K
Andrew Garfield 5% ▼ 1 4¢ 6¢ $16.67 31.3K
Dominic Sessa 5% 2¢ 7¢ $14.29 3.3K
Robert Aramayo 4% ▼ 4 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 4.3K
Javier Bardem 4% ▼ 1 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 3.3K
Adam Scott 4% ▼ 1 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 2.1K
Josh O'Connor 4% ▲ 1 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.1K
Channing Tatum 4% ▲ 2 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 3.2K
Jeremy Strong 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 17.0K
Keanu Reeves 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 1.9K
Brad Pitt 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 4.4K
Guy Pearce 3% 6¢ $16.67 176
Jeremy Allen White 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.2K
Robert DeNiro 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 204
Sacha Baron Cohen 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 514
Hanns Zischler 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 110
Ethan Hawke 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 2.1K
Charles Melton 1% 1¢ $100.00 1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

91%Matt Damon
  • Matt Damon91%▼ 1
  • John Malkovich87%▼ 2
  • Andrew Scott86%▲ 1
  • Tom Cruise49%▼ 2
15 more
  • John Turturro47%▲ 2
  • Anthony Ippolito47%▲ 2
  • Ryan Gosling45%▲ 2
  • Robert Pattinson44%
  • Sebastian Stan19%
  • Jaafar Jackson18%▲ 1
  • Pedro Pascal16%
  • Timothée Chalamet11%
  • Sam Rockwell6%▼ 1
  • Javier Bardem5%
  • Adam Driver5%
  • Josh O'Connor5%
  • Brad Pitt4%
  • Robert Aramayo3%
  • Jeremy Strong2%
PolymarketCloses Mar 14, 2027 · $1.8K today · $164K traded

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The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Actor

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Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey48%▲ 4
  • You Can See Everything28%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

99%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey99%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball95%
  • Wild Horse Nine91%
50 more
  • Dune: Part Three83%
  • You Can See Everything81%▲ 1
  • Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
  • The Debut74%
  • The Invite62%▲ 2
  • I Play Rocky57%
  • Artificial56%
  • All of a Sudden37%
  • Fjord35%
  • Obsession34%▲ 1
  • Elsinore30%▲ 3
  • Wildwood26%▼ 1
  • Digger23%▲ 1
  • Club Kid22%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%▼ 1
  • Being Heumann18%
  • Possible Love17%▲ 1
  • Behemoth16%
  • Michael12%
  • Primetime10%
  • Ink8%▲ 2
  • Josephine7%▲ 1
  • Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother7%▼ 1
  • Sense and Sensibility6%
  • Saturn Return5%
  • Minotaur4%
  • Misty Green4%▲ 1
  • The Drama4%
  • Paper Tiger4%
  • Clarissa4%
  • Disclosure Day3%
  • Werwulf3%▼ 3
  • Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
  • Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
  • Parallel Tales3%
  • 1949 / Fatherland3%▼ 1
  • The Whisper Man3%▼ 1
  • Rose3%
  • The Uprising3%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
  • The Death of Robin Hood3%
  • Backrooms3%▲ 1
  • The Entertainment System Is Down2%
  • Hope2%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
  • I Love Boosters2%
  • Jack of Spades2%
  • Tony2%
  • Bucking Fastard2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

97%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan97%
  • Javier Calvo89%
  • Martin McDonagh71%▲ 1
24 more
  • Nathan Fielder65%▲ 1
  • Denis Villeneuve59%▲ 2
  • Olivia Wilde51%
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%
  • Cristian Mungiu28%
  • Jesse Eisenberg24%
  • Phil Lord12%
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu12%▲ 1
  • Curry Barker10%
  • Christopher Miller10%▲ 1
  • David Fincher9%▲ 2
  • Paweł Pawlikowski8%
  • Tony Gilroy8%
  • Steven Spielberg6%▼ 1
  • Mike Leigh5%▼ 6
  • Andrew Haigh5%
  • Joel Coen5%
  • Ben Affleck5%▲ 2
  • Na Hong-jin4%
  • Greta Gerwig4%
  • Beth de Araujo4%
  • Danny Boyle3%
  • Janus Metz Pedersen3%
  • James Ashcroft2%

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

90%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey90%▲ 12
  • Dune: Part Three74%▲ 2
  • Sense and Sensibility65%▲ 3
9 more
  • The Black Ball64%▼ 6
  • I Love Boosters51%
  • Werwulf49%▲ 3
  • Wuthering Heights44%▲ 11
  • Michael40%▲ 2
  • The Devil Wears Prada 236%▼ 3
  • Digger28%▲ 3
  • Wild Horse Nine27%▲ 3
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%

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