Oscar Winner: Best International Feature Film (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $3 today · $4.2K traded · $3.5K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

80%La Bola Negra

La Bola Negra80%
Fjord9%
Possible Love3%
All of a Sudden3%
Minotaur2%
Everytime2%
The Spiral2%
Coward1%
Feito Pipa1%
Fatherland1%
Tie1%

How the odds have moved

La Bola Negra: 77% on Oct 20, 80% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
La Bola Negra	80%	80¢	81¢	$1.23	5.0K
Fjord	9%	7¢	12¢	$8.33	1.3K
Possible Love	3%	2¢	5¢	$20.00	560
All of a Sudden	3%	1¢	5¢	$20.00	1.0K
Minotaur	2%	1¢	3¢	$33.33	435
Everytime	2%	1¢	3¢	$33.33	318
The Spiral	2%	1¢	3¢	$33.33	360
Coward	1%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	318
Feito Pipa	1%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	318
Fatherland	1%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	821
Tie	1%		2¢	$50.00	298

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best International Feature Film

Search ›

Red Sea Film Foundation expands global reach with record Oscar-season slateBroadcastPro ME · 12 h agoThe shortlist for Best International Feature Film will be announced on December 15, 2026, with nominations on January 21, 2027. The Red Sea Film Foundation has achieved a record presence in the race for the Best International Feature Film…
Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 3 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the WarStanford University · 20 h agoStanford University Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the War Join us for a film screening of Lithuania's submission for the Academy Awards with commentary from Maarja…
The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 29 h agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
Oscar Piastri warns COTA bumps could become an overtaking hazard at US GPYahoo Sports · 23 h agoMcLaren's Oscar Piastri has compared the bump on the approach to Turn 1 at the Circuit of the Americas to "a motocross jump" after qualifying seventh for the United States Grand Prix. The Australian driver finished 0.768 seconds behind…
Fulham climb out of drop zone after Oscar Bobb’s late show sinks Coventrythe Guardian · 30 h agoOscar Bobb’s first Premier League goal for Fulham earned a win against Coventry that lifted Álvaro Arbeloa’s side clear of the relegation zone. Bobb produced a fine bit of individual skill to score in the 80th minute, twisting his way into…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 3 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 2 days agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…
Oscar winner Melissa Leo to perform in KingstonDaily Freeman · 25 h agoKINGSTON, N.Y. — Academy Award winner Melissa Leo, a part-time Ulster County resident, will take the stage at the Arts Society of Kingston for a stage reading of “night, Mother,” Marsha Norman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning drama, on Saturday…
Jeon Do-yeon Defined an Era of Korean Cinema. With ‘Possible Love,’ She’s Become an Oscar ContenderThe Hollywood Reporter · 2 days agoThe decorated actor could become the first person from South Korea to be nominated for best actress — fitting, given her remarkable run onscreen: “I almost find myself wondering why it has taken the rest of the world so long to notice…
Pakistani short film ‘The Last Glance’ qualifies for Oscars longlist24 News HD · 34 h agoPakistani filmmaker Kamran Faiq has achieved an international milestone as his short film The Last Glance qualifies for the 2028 Academy Awards longlist after winning the Jury Award for Best Short at the 21st Tasveer Film Festival in…
Zendaya Mounting Major Best Actress Oscar Campaign for Dune 3Outlook India · 40 h agoThis is a decisive shift from the earlier Dune films that pitched Zendaya in the supporting actress race Zendaya will be campaigning in the Oscars Best Actress race for Dune: Part Three. Denis Villeneuve returns to helm the third and final…

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

44%The Odyssey

The Odyssey44%▼ 1
You Can See Everything27%▼ 4
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three6%
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

95%The Odyssey

The Odyssey95%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three79%▼ 13
Project Hail Mary61%▼ 4

6 more

Fatherland45%
Digger42%▲ 14
Werwulf35%▼ 3
Obsession19%▲ 3
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%▼ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%▼ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut76%▼ 1
You Can See Everything75%
The Invite62%▲ 1
I Play Rocky59%▲ 11
All of a Sudden37%▼ 1
Fjord35%▼ 2
Obsession31%▼ 1
Elsinore29%▼ 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth25%▲ 2
Behemoth!22%▲ 4
Digger19%
Michael13%▲ 2
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations

75%The Baddest Speechwriter of All

The Baddest Speechwriter of All75%▲ 9
One Last Order56%▲ 1
Oh Whale53%▲ 9

7 more

The Tuners52%▲ 15
Water Cooler48%▲ 21
A Derailment43%▲ 1
Listen34%▲ 7
We're Fine32%▲ 5
A Wolf in the Suburbs20%▲ 5
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil14%▼ 11

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

79%The Black Ball

The Black Ball79%▲ 11
Dune: Part Three79%▲ 7
The Odyssey73%▼ 5

9 more

Sense and Sensibility56%▼ 8
I Love Boosters52%▲ 2
Werwulf48%▲ 3
The Devil Wears Prada 245%▲ 3
Michael39%▲ 3
Wuthering Heights33%
Wild Horse Nine28%▲ 8
Digger28%▲ 8
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton74%▲ 1

15 more

Tao Okamoto61%▼ 1
Amanda Seyfried43%▼ 3
Kate O'Flynn41%
Olivia Colman32%
Mariana di Girolamo28%▼ 4
Sandra Hüller25%▲ 2
Parker Posey20%▼ 1
Merritt Wever18%
Gemma Chan9%▼ 5
Zendaya8%▲ 1
Danielle Deadwyler8%▼ 3
Betty Gilpin6%▲ 2
Isabella Rossellini5%
Margaret Qualley5%▲ 1
Inde Navarrette1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$4.2K (10,721 contracts)

Today$3

This week$1.1K

At stake$3.5K

In the news27 headlines today, 328 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If La Bola Negra has won Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions