Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
65%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep65%
- R Senate, D House27%▲ 1
- Republicans Sweep7%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Install
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
The odds
27%Pete Buttigieg
- Pete Buttigieg27%
- Rahm Emanuel22%▲ 4
- Andy Beshear18%▲ 2
- Ron DeSantis15%
- Gavin Newsom13%
- Phil Murphy13%▲ 3
- Raphael Warnock10%
- Mark Kelly9%▼ 2
- Glenn Youngkin8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez8%
- J.B. Pritzker8%
- Ted Cruz7%▲ 1
59 more
- Cory Booker7%
- J.D. Vance7%
- Don Lemon7%
- Rand Paul7%
- Kamala Harris6%▼ 1
- Beto O’Rourke6%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.6%
- Brian Kemp6%
- Josh Hawley6%
- Vivek Ramaswamy5%
- Gina Raimondo5%
- Nikki Haley5%
- Hunter Biden5%
- Jon Stewart5%
- George Clooney5%
- Andrew Yang5%
- Josh Shapiro4%
- Greg Abbott4%
- Jon Ossoff4%
- Marco Rubio4%
- Tucker Carlson4%▼ 1
- Tom Brady4%
- John Thune4%
- Donald Trump Jr.4%
- Matt Gaetz4%
- Erika Kirk4%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene4%
- Donald Trump4%
- Elon Musk3%▲ 1
- Gretchen Whitmer3%
- Zohran Mamdani3%
- Wes Moore3%
- John Fetterman3%
- Kristi Noem3%
- Oprah Winfrey3%
- Ivanka Trump3%
- Candace Owens3%
- Hillary Clinton3%
- Elise Stefanik3%
- Steve Bannon3%
- Barack Obama3%
- Michelle Obama3%
- Liz Cheney3%
- Bernie Sanders3%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
- LeBron James2%
- Katie Britt2%
- Kim Kardashian2%
- Tulsi Gabbard2%
- Mike Pence2%
- Jared Polis2%▼ 1
- MrBeast2%
- Mark Cuban1%
- Roy Cooper1%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders1%
- Tim Walz1%
- Chelsea Clinton1%
- Stephen A. Smith1%
- Byron Donalds<1%
How the odds have moved
Pete Buttigieg: 34% on Oct 20, 27% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETPete Buttigieg: 36% → 28%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 27% | 26¢ | 28¢ | $3.62 | $23.7K | |
| Rahm Emanuel | 22% | ▲ 4 | 20¢ | 24¢ | $4.24 | $20.4K |
| Andy Beshear | 18% | ▲ 2 | 16¢ | 20¢ | $4.98 | $29.4K |
| Ron DeSantis | 15% | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.29 | $3.4K | |
| Gavin Newsom | 13% | 12¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | $90.9K | |
| Phil Murphy | 13% | ▲ 3 | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.76 | $4.6K |
| Raphael Warnock | 10% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $4K | |
| Mark Kelly | 9% | ▼ 2 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $10.75 | $13.9K |
| Glenn Youngkin | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.20 | $6.8K | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $58K | |
| J.B. Pritzker | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $7.9K | |
| Ted Cruz | 7% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 9¢ | $10.99 | $17.1K |
| Cory Booker | 7% | 6¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | $17.4K | |
| J.D. Vance | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $39.4K | |
| Don Lemon | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | $2.8K | |
| Rand Paul | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $20.4K | |
| Kamala Harris | 6% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $70.1K |
| Beto O’Rourke | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.93 | $11.6K | |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | $17.2K | |
| Brian Kemp | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $4.6K | |
| Josh Hawley | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $9.1K | |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $9.7K | |
| Gina Raimondo | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.71 | $4.5K | |
| Nikki Haley | 5% | 5¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $4.7K | |
| Hunter Biden | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $19.23 | $58.5K | |
| Jon Stewart | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $18.87 | $4.6K | |
| George Clooney | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $5.4K | |
| Andrew Yang | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $18.18 | $16.4K | |
| Josh Shapiro | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | $13.8K | |
| Greg Abbott | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | $4.1K | |
| Jon Ossoff | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $27.1K | |
| Marco Rubio | 4% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | $12.4K | |
| Tucker Carlson | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $30.9K |
| Tom Brady | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $9.7K | |
| John Thune | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $5K | |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $22.22 | $9.5K | |
| Matt Gaetz | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $3.4K | |
| Erika Kirk | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | $26.8K | |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | $22.3K | |
| Donald Trump | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | $71.1K | |
| Elon Musk | 3% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | $9.8K |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | $5K | |
| Zohran Mamdani | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | $36.3K | |
| Wes Moore | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | $6.9K | |
| John Fetterman | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $23.26 | $7.2K | |
| Kristi Noem | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | $20.2K | |
| Oprah Winfrey | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $17.6K | |
| Ivanka Trump | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | $39.5K | |
| Candace Owens | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $22.22 | $12.2K | |
| Hillary Clinton | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $16K | |
| Elise Stefanik | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | $4.4K | |
| Steve Bannon | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $22.22 | $20.5K | |
| Barack Obama | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | $11.3K | |
| Michelle Obama | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | $14.7K | |
| Liz Cheney | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | $3K | |
| Bernie Sanders | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | $4.3K | |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $30.30 | $11.1K | |
| LeBron James | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | $16.1K | |
| Katie Britt | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | $26.4K | |
| Kim Kardashian | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | $6.6K | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $6.5K | |
| Mike Pence | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $15.6K | |
| Jared Polis | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | $6.2K |
| MrBeast | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $29.6K | |
| Mark Cuban | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | $14.7K | |
| Roy Cooper | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $7K | |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $8.3K | |
| Tim Walz | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $6.8K | |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | $13.5K | |
| Stephen A. Smith | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $20K | ||
| Byron Donalds | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Pete Buttigieg, Rahm Emanuel, Andy Beshear
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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