TIME Person of the Year 2026

Polymarket Culture Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $1.9K today · $139K traded · $79.3K at stake · prices read 30 min ago

The odds

28%Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani28%
Mark Carney16%▼ 1
Pope Leo XIV14%▲ 2
Benjamin Netanyahu8%
Donald Trump7%
Dario Amodei6%
Marco Rubio6%▲ 1
Elon Musk6%▲ 1
Artificial Intelligence6%
Reid Wiseman6%
Sam Altman5%▲ 1
Victor Glover5%

16 more

Bad Bunny5%
Jeremy Hansen5%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf4%
Christina Koch4%
Mojtaba Khamenei4%
James Talarico4%
Shehbaz Sharif3%
Alysa Liu3%
Ali Khamenei3%
Péter Magyar3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3%
ChatGPT2%
Taylor Swift2%
Ali G2%
Jerome Powell1%
Bernie Sanders1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Zohran Mamdani	28%		28¢	29¢	$3.45	$36.2K
Mark Carney	16%	▼ 1	13¢	18¢	$5.56	$9.3K
Pope Leo XIV	14%	▲ 2	13¢	15¢	$6.67	$26.3K
Benjamin Netanyahu	8%		7¢	9¢	$11.11	$7.5K
Donald Trump	7%		6¢	7¢	$14.29	$13.6K
Dario Amodei	6%		6¢	7¢	$15.15	$3.4K
Marco Rubio	6%	▲ 1	6¢	6¢	$15.63	$5.3K
Elon Musk	6%	▲ 1	5¢	7¢	$14.29	$4K
Artificial Intelligence	6%		6¢	6¢	$16.67	$7.3K
Reid Wiseman	6%		5¢	7¢	$15.15	$129
Sam Altman	5%	▲ 1	5¢	6¢	$17.86	$341
Victor Glover	5%		5¢	6¢	$16.95	$162
Bad Bunny	5%		5¢	5¢	$20.83	$248
Jeremy Hansen	5%		3¢	6¢	$16.95	$288
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf	4%		3¢	4¢	$22.73	$9.1K
Christina Koch	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.83	$530
Mojtaba Khamenei	4%		2¢	5¢	$20.83	$319
James Talarico	4%		2¢	5¢	$20.83	$3.8K
Shehbaz Sharif	3%		2¢	5¢	$22.22	$176
Alysa Liu	3%		1¢	5¢	$21.28	$2.1K
Ali Khamenei	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	$91
Péter Magyar	3%		2¢	4¢	$24.39	$274
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	3%		1¢	4¢	$23.26	$367
ChatGPT	2%		1¢	4¢	$28.57	$146
Taylor Swift	2%		1¢	4¢	$27.78	$219
Ali G	2%		1¢	2¢	$52.63	$3.7K
Jerome Powell	1%		0¢	3¢	$38.46	$289
Bernie Sanders	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	$3.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Crypto.com

TIME Person of the Year 2026Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafPolymarket 4%Crypto.com 11%7 pts apart

TIME's Person of the Year 2026

27%Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani27%
Pope Leo XIV14%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf11%
Benjamin Netanyahu6%

16 more

Dario Amodei6%
Donald Trump6%
Victor Glover5%
Elon Musk4%
Reid Wiseman4%
Sam Altman4%
James Talarico4%
Jeremy Hansen3%
Marco Rubio3%
Jerome Powell3%
Christina Koch3%
Bad Bunny3%
Alysa Liu2%
Shehbaz Sharif2%
Peter Magyar1%
Taylor Swift1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Kalshi

Time's Person of the Year for 2026Mark CarneyKalshi 13%Polymarket 16%3 pts apart

Time's Person of the Year for 2026

28%Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani28%▲ 1
Pope Leo XIV14%▼ 2
Mark Carney13%
Benjamin Netanyahu8%▲ 1

38 more

Donald Trump8%
Dario Amodei8%
AI7%
Reid Wiseman7%▲ 1
Elon Musk6%▲ 2
James Talarico6%
Abdul El-Sayed6%▲ 1
Sam Altman6%
Jeremy Hansen5%
Victor Glover5%
Christina Koch5%
Bad Bunny4%
Mojtaba Khamenei4%
Xi Jinping4%▼ 1
Shehbaz Sharif4%
Marco Rubio4%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf4%
Alysa Liu3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3%
ChatGPT3%
Péter Magyar3%
Lionel Messi3%
Bernie Sanders3%
Jon Ossoff3%
James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast3%
Taylor Swift2%▼ 1
Jerome Powell2%
Steve Witkoff2%
Christopher Nolan2%
Chris Wright2%
Hakeem Jeffries1%
JD Vance1%
Andy Burnham1%
Susie Wiles1%
Pete Hegseth1%
Erika Kirk1%
Jared Kushner1%
Kevin Warsh1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: TIME Person, Zohran Mamdani, Mark Carney

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$139K

Today$1.9K

This week$139K

At stake$79.3K

In the news3 headlines today, 67 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.