TIME's Person of the Year 2026

Crypto.com Culture Closes Dec 31 · $426 today · $426 traded · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

25%Zohran Mamdani
  • Zohran Mamdani25%
  • Pope Leo XIV12%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf11%
  • Dario Amodei6%
  • Donald Trump6%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu6%
  • Sam Altman5%
  • Victor Glover5%
  • Elon Musk4%
  • Marco Rubio4%
  • James Talarico4%
  • Reid Wiseman4%
8 more
  • Christina Koch4%
  • Jeremy Hansen3%
  • Bad Bunny3%
  • Peter Magyar3%
  • Alysa Liu2%
  • Shehbaz Sharif2%
  • Jerome Powell2%
  • Taylor Swift1%

How the odds have moved

Zohran Mamdani: 27% on Oct 20, 25% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Crypto.com. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Zohran Mamdani 25% 25¢ 28¢ $3.57 173
Pope Leo XIV 12% 12¢ 18¢ $5.56
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 11% 1¢ 15¢ $6.67 31.00
Dario Amodei 6% 6¢ 8¢ $12.50
Donald Trump 6% 6¢ 10¢ $10.00 137
Benjamin Netanyahu 6% 5¢ 11¢ $9.09 85.00
Sam Altman 5% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67
Victor Glover 5% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67
Elon Musk 4% 4¢ 8¢ $12.50
Marco Rubio 4% 4¢ 6¢ $16.67
James Talarico 4% 4¢ 6¢ $16.67
Reid Wiseman 4% 3¢ 7¢ $14.29
Christina Koch 4% 3¢ 7¢ $14.29
Jeremy Hansen 3% 3¢ 6¢ $16.67
Bad Bunny 3% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00
Peter Magyar 3% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00
Alysa Liu 2% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00
Shehbaz Sharif 2% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00
Jerome Powell 2% 5¢ $20.00
Taylor Swift 1% 3¢ $33.33

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Time's Person of the Year for 2026

28%Zohran Mamdani
  • Zohran Mamdani28%▲ 1
  • Pope Leo XIV15%▼ 1
  • Mark Carney13%
  • Donald Trump10%▲ 2
38 more
  • Benjamin Netanyahu8%▲ 1
  • Dario Amodei7%▼ 1
  • Elon Musk7%▲ 1
  • AI7%
  • James Talarico6%
  • Sam Altman6%
  • Reid Wiseman6%▼ 1
  • Victor Glover5%
  • Christina Koch5%
  • Abdul El-Sayed5%▼ 1
  • Jeremy Hansen4%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio4%▼ 1
  • Bad Bunny4%▼ 1
  • Shehbaz Sharif4%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf4%
  • Mojtaba Khamenei4%
  • Xi Jinping4%
  • ChatGPT3%
  • Alysa Liu3%▼ 1
  • Péter Magyar3%
  • Lionel Messi3%
  • Bernie Sanders3%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3%
  • Jon Ossoff3%
  • James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast3%
  • Taylor Swift2%
  • Jerome Powell2%
  • Steve Witkoff2%
  • Christopher Nolan2%
  • Pete Hegseth2%▲ 1
  • Chris Wright2%
  • Hakeem Jeffries1%
  • JD Vance1%
  • Andy Burnham1%
  • Susie Wiles1%
  • Erika Kirk1%
  • Jared Kushner1%
  • Kevin Warsh1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31 · $1.2K today · $334K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Polymarket

TIME Person of the Year 2026

26%Zohran Mamdani
  • Zohran Mamdani26%
  • Mark Carney17%▲ 1
  • Pope Leo XIV16%▲ 1
  • Donald Trump8%▲ 1
24 more
  • Benjamin Netanyahu7%
  • Artificial Intelligence6%
  • Dario Amodei6%
  • Elon Musk6%
  • Marco Rubio6%
  • Sam Altman6%
  • Reid Wiseman5%▲ 1
  • Victor Glover5%
  • Jeremy Hansen5%
  • Mojtaba Khamenei5%▲ 1
  • Christina Koch4%
  • Péter Magyar4%▲ 1
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf4%
  • Bad Bunny4%
  • James Talarico4%
  • Shehbaz Sharif3%
  • Alysa Liu3%
  • Taylor Swift3%▲ 1
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3%
  • ChatGPT3%
  • Ali Khamenei2%
  • Jerome Powell1%
  • Ali G1%
  • Bernie Sanders1%
PolymarketCloses Jun 30, 2027 · $2.7K today · $145K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: TIME's Person, Zohran Mamdani, Pope Leo XIV

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All culture ›
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

94%Matt Damon
  • Matt Damon94%
  • John Malkovich88%▼ 1
  • Andrew Scott86%▼ 1
16 more
  • Tom Cruise60%▼ 2
  • John Turturro50%▲ 8
  • Robert Pattinson48%▲ 4
  • Ryan Gosling45%▲ 1
  • Anthony Ippolito40%▲ 2
  • Pedro Pascal17%▲ 1
  • Sebastian Stan17%▲ 1
  • Jaafar Jackson16%▼ 1
  • Timothée Chalamet11%▼ 4
  • Sam Rockwell8%▲ 3
  • Adam Driver8%▲ 3
  • Josh O'Connor7%
  • Javier Bardem4%
  • Brad Pitt3%
  • Robert Aramayo3%
  • Jeremy Strong1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.