Next James Bond actor?

Polymarket Culture › Movies & box office Closes Dec 31 · $18.1K today · $1.7M traded · $317K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

The odds

31%No Bond chosen
  • No Bond chosen31%▲ 12
  • Jack Lowden29%▼ 9
  • Callum Turner19%▲ 3
  • Josh O'Connor6%▼ 2
  • Jacob Elordi5%▼ 1
  • James Norton4%▼ 1
  • Jack Barton2%▼ 1
  • Tom Francis2%▼ 1
  • Henry Cavill1%
  • Jack O'Connell<1%▼ 1
  • Richard Madden<1%
  • Harris Dickinson<1%▼ 1
12 more
  • Paul Mescal<1%
  • Theo James<1%
  • Aaron Taylor-Johnson<1%
  • Tom Hardy<1%
  • Pierce Brosnan<1%
  • Tom Holland<1%
  • Robert James-Collier<1%
  • Timothee Chalamet<1%
  • Michael B Jordan<1%
  • Nicholas Galitzine<1%
  • Jonathan Bailey<1%
  • Tom Blyth<1%

How the odds have moved

No Bond chosen: 36% on Oct 20, 31% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 25, 5 PM ETNo Bond chosen: 19% → 31%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
No Bond chosen 31% ▲ 12 30¢ 32¢ $3.13 $616K
Jack Lowden 29% ▼ 9 26¢ 33¢ $3.06 $293K
Callum Turner 19% ▲ 3 18¢ 20¢ $5.13 $122K
Josh O'Connor 6% ▼ 2 5¢ 6¢ $17.24 $37.3K
Jacob Elordi 5% ▼ 1 2¢ 8¢ $13.33 $46.1K
James Norton 4% ▼ 1 0¢ 8¢ $13.16 $38.3K
Jack Barton 2% ▼ 1 2¢ 3¢ $38.46 $78.5K
Tom Francis 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 3¢ $35.71 $32.3K
Henry Cavill 1% 1¢ 1¢ $30.8K
Jack O'Connell <1% ▼ 1 0¢ 1¢ $46.5K
Richard Madden <1% 0¢ 0¢ $28.4K
Harris Dickinson <1% ▼ 1 0¢ 0¢ $35.9K
Paul Mescal <1% 0¢ 0¢ $26.5K
Theo James <1% 0¢ 0¢ $45K
Aaron Taylor-Johnson <1% 0¢ $37.7K
Tom Hardy <1% 0¢ $27.3K
Pierce Brosnan <1% 0¢ $15.9K
Tom Holland <1% 0¢ $18.3K
Robert James-Collier <1% 0¢ $8.7K
Timothee Chalamet <1% 0¢ $18.4K
Michael B Jordan <1% 0¢ $12.5K
Nicholas Galitzine <1% 0¢ $13.4K
Jonathan Bailey <1% 0¢ $13.8K
Tom Blyth <1% 0¢ $14.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: James Bond, Jack Lowden, Callum Turner

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions