Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Polymarket Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31 · $963 today · $224K traded · $26K at stake · prices read 13 min ago

The odds

23%Unusual Machines
  • Unusual Machines23%▼ 17
  • Anduril14%▼ 2
  • Eli Lilly13%▲ 1
  • OpenAI12%▼ 1
  • Nvidia11%
  • TSMC10%▼ 3
  • IonQ10%▲ 1
  • Lockheed Martin10%
  • SpaceX8%▲ 1
  • Freeport-McMoRan8%
  • Micron8%
  • Boeing6%
5 more
  • Pfizer6%
  • Palantir5%▲ 1
  • Anthropic5%▲ 1
  • Samsung Electronics5%
  • TikTok US / Bytedance4%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

Unusual Machines: 28% on Oct 20, 23% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 21, 7 PM ETUnusual Machines: 32% → 49%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
✓ GlobalFoundries >99% ▲ 2 100¢ 100¢ $10.2K
✓ D-Wave >99% ▲ 4 100¢ 100¢ $5.7K
✓ Rigetti >99% 99¢ 100¢ $27.8K
Unusual Machines 23% ▼ 17 16¢ 29¢ $3.45 $2K
Anduril 14% ▼ 2 13¢ 15¢ $6.67 $55.8K
Eli Lilly 13% ▲ 1 12¢ 14¢ $7.25 $4.6K
OpenAI 12% ▼ 1 11¢ 13¢ $7.69 $13K
Nvidia 11% 10¢ 11¢ $9.09 $18.4K
TSMC 10% ▼ 3 9¢ 11¢ $9.09 $19.8K
IonQ 10% ▲ 1 9¢ 11¢ $9.09 $5.3K
Lockheed Martin 10% 8¢ 11¢ $9.09 $4.1K
SpaceX 8% ▲ 1 7¢ 9¢ $11.11 $256
Freeport-McMoRan 8% 7¢ 9¢ $11.11 $3.5K
Micron 8% 6¢ 9¢ $11.11 $3.1K
Boeing 6% 5¢ 7¢ $14.29 $12.1K
Pfizer 6% 6¢ 6¢ $15.87 $7.1K
Palantir 5% ▲ 1 5¢ 6¢ $16.39 $5.5K
Anthropic 5% ▲ 1 4¢ 6¢ $15.63 $8.3K
Samsung Electronics 5% 3¢ 6¢ $16.67 $10.4K
TikTok US / Bytedance 4% ▼ 2 2¢ 7¢ $13.89 $6.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Unusual Machines, Eli Lilly

Search ›
  • Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: SpaceX, Nvidia, Apple, CoreWeave, Amazon, Meta, Eli Lilly & moreCNBC · 8 days agoGoldman Sachs upgrades CoreWeave to buy from neutral Goldman said CoreWeave shares are undervalued and that investors should buy the dip. "We upgrade CoreWeave from Neutral to Buy with 73% upside to ...
  • Mubadala Bio, Eli Lilly lead UAE dealmaking spree in healthcareThe Circuit · 6 days agocircuit.news The UAE has embraced GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and was an early launch market for Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro injector pen following its FDA approval Eli Lilly's Foundayo weight loss pills and Mounjaro injection pen will be packaged in…
  • Here's What I'm Planning With My Eli Lilly PositionThe Globe and Mail · 6 days agoThe Globe and Mail Here's What I'm Planning With My Eli Lilly Position Business is booming, and the pipeline of new treatments is robust. Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because…
  • Unusual Machines: The Multibagger In The Making For U.S. Drone SupplySeeking Alpha · 6 days agoUnusual Machines is a rapidly growing NDAA-compliant drone component supplier that could surpass $250 million in revenue by 2027. I rate UMAC stock as Strong Buy. - Unusual Machines is a rapidly growing NDAA-compliant drone component…
  • Is Eli Lilly Stock Too Dependent On Two Drugs?Trefis · 7 days agoTwo drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, accounted for $14.9 billion of Eli Lilly’s (LLY) $23.0 billion in revenue during fiscal Q2 2026. This leaves Eli Lilly relying on two medicines for most of its sales at a time when the price it gets for…
  • Eli Lilly and Company $LLY Shares Bought by Foguth Wealth Management LLC.Defense World · 7 days agoPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 20th, 2026 Get Our Latest Research Report on Eli Lilly and Company Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is a global pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets medicines for a…
  • Eli Lilly: Lilly Endowment reports 9.6% stakeStock Titan · 8 days agoLianhe Sowell International Group Ltd. Secures RMB23.84 Million Order for 80 AI Spray Painting Robots in Malaysia and First UK Order Iovance Highlights TIL Cell Therapy Platform Across Solid Tumors at the European Society for Medical…
  • Unusual Machines, Inc. $UMAC Stock: Counterpoint Mutual Funds LLC Lowers HoldingsDefense World · 7 days agoPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 20th, 2026 NYSEAMERICAN UMAC opened at $16.40 on Tuesday. The company’s fifty day moving average is $23.71 and its two-hundred day moving average is $20.90. Unusual Machines, Inc. has a 52-week low of…
  • Metis TechBio, Eli Lilly Sign USD 1.1 Billion Drug Delivery Collaboration DealMedical Dialogues · 7 days agoBengaluru: Hong Kong-listed Metis TechBio said on Monday it has entered into a collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly worth up to USD 1.1 billion to research and develop tissue-specific drug delivery technologies. The Chinese biotech will…
  • Is Eli Lilly Stock a Buy Right Now?The Motley Fool · 8 days agoEli Lilly is growing quickly, lowering realized prices, and building its next wave of drugs. Here's what the numbers say about margins, valuation, and the catalysts that matter next. Eli Lilly (LLY -0.73%) is expanding access at lower…
  • Unusual Machines (UMAC) Closes Acquisition of Upgrade EnergyTradingView · 8 days agoTradingView Unusual Machines (UMAC) Closes Acquisition of Upgrade Energy Unusual Machines, Inc. completed the acquisition of DroneNX LLC (Upgrade Energy), adding U.S.-made drone batteries and power systems to its portfolio and planning…
  • 432 Shares of Eli Lilly and Company $LLY Purchased by Prospera Capital Management LLCDefense World · 7 days agoPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 20th, 2026 Prospera Capital Management LLC bought a new stake in Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY – Free Report) in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange…

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Politics › Trump administration

Who will be arrested before 2027?

22%James Comey
  • James Comey22%▲ 16
  • Mahmoud Khalil22%▲ 1
  • John Brennan21%▼ 1
21 more
  • Lee Jun-seok13%▲ 3
  • Anthony Fauci8%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan8%▲ 1
  • James Clapper6%▲ 1
  • Candace Owens6%
  • Lisa Cook6%▲ 1
  • Letitia James6%▲ 1
  • Susan Rice6%
  • Hillary Clinton5%▲ 4
  • Pam Bondi5%
  • Adam Schiff5%▲ 1
  • Benjamin Netanyahu5%
  • José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%
  • Brandon Johnson4%▼ 1
  • Gavin Newsom3%▲ 1
  • Kash Patel2%
  • Loretta Lynch2%
  • Bill Clinton2%
  • John Kerry2%
  • Barack Obama2%
  • Joe Biden1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions