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Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?
The odds
43%Pete Hegseth
- Pete Hegseth43%
- Nobody28%
- Donald Trump12%
- Clarence Thomas8%▲ 2
- Howard Lutnick6%
- JD Vance2%
- Samuel Alito2%
- Todd Blanche2%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.1%
How the odds have moved
Pete Hegseth: 32% on Oct 20, 43% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 20, 11 PM ETPete Hegseth: 32% → 43%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 43% | 43¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | $1.3K | |
| Nobody | 28% | 28¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | $2.4K | |
| Donald Trump | 12% | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $738 | |
| Clarence Thomas | 8% | ▲ 2 | 8¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $669 |
| Howard Lutnick | 6% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $570 | |
| JD Vance | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $271 | |
| Samuel Alito | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | $390 | |
| Todd Blanche | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | $245 | |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $43.48 | $314 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: impeachment, Pete Hegseth
Search ›-
Barack Obama Slams Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth Over Iran WarOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 04:08 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama criticized President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday over the war with Iran, calling the administration “not serious… -
Sen. Adam Schiff says Pete Hegseth should testify on Starlink slowdown in UkraineSen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth should testify before the Senate on the Starlink satellite limitations that disrupted Ukrainian military operations, if… -
Pete Hegseth Reportedly Eyeing Tennessee Senate Seat as Impeachment Fears MountPete Hegseth eyes his next move as lawmakers move to impeach him as Defense Secretary. Oct. 26 2026, Published 12:09 p.m. ET Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly angling for an appointment to a Tennessee Senate seat to secure a… -
Pete Hegseth Is Trying To Flee The Trump Administration Before He Can Be ImpeachedEight days before the midterm election, two things have become certain. Democrats are going to take back the House, and after they do, Democrats are going to impeach Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. There is a list of Trump cabinet… -
Pete Hegseth’s Reported Political Backup Plan Emerges Amid Impeachment Push — ReportPete Hegseth may be considering a political move as pressure grows over his tenure in the Trump administration. The defense secretary is reportedly interested in a possible Tennessee Senate appointment if Sen. Marsha Blackburn becomes… -
Pete Hegseth Reportedly Angling For Blackburn's Senate Seat To Avoid ImpeachmentThe midterms will shape our future. HuffPost holds power accountable. Become a member to keep independent journalism strong. The defense secretary might try an intriguing escape route, according to Puck. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is… -
Pete Hegseth’s Exit OptionDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth “has been angling for Sen. Marsha Blackburn to appoint him to her Senate seat, if she becomes Tennessee governor, sparing him a potential impeachment trial,” Puck reports. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth “has… -
Pete Hegseth Faces Public Complaint From Zelensky Over Missile DelaysHome » Pete Hegseth Faces Public Complaint From Zelensky Over Missile Delays Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky just called out one of Donald Trump’s top officials by name over a growing military standoff. The Ukrainian leader publicly… - Pete Hegseth eyeing Senate seat as impeachment threat looms: reportDefense Secretary could seek to succeed Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee rather than wait to be forced out of the Pentagon by congressional Democrats or President Donald Trump, it is claimed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly…
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Pentagon Responds To Rumors That Pete Hegseth May Seek U.S. Senate AppointmentThe Pentagon addressed rumors that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is eyeing Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s seat if she becomes Tennessee governor. According to Puck, Hegseth may attempt to convince Blackburn to appoint him to the seat. Blackburn… -
Rep. Crow: ‘My Priority Number One’ Is Ousting Pete HegsethOn Sunday’s broadcast of CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) said “priority number one if we retake the majority, to make sure we oust” Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. Partial transcript as follows: MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions