María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
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What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
The odds
39.73%high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 39.73% and as low as 34.71%.
- Reaches 39%65%
- Reaches 40%45%
- Reaches 41%34%
- Reaches 42%28%
- Reaches 44%10%
- Reaches 46%7%
- Falls to 37%86%
- Falls to 36%63%
- Falls to 35%54%
- Falls to 34%42%
- Falls to 32%13%
- Falls to 30%11%
How the odds have moved
Falls to 34%: 43% on Oct 20, 42% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 24, 11 PM ETFalls to 34%: 53% → 47%
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETFalls to 34%: 32% → 41%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 39% | 65% | 64¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | $2.8K | |
| ↑ 40% | 45% | ▼ 6 | 33¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | $3.2K |
| ↑ 41% | 34% | ▼ 18 | 10¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | $2.3K |
| ↑ 42% | 28% | ▼ 9 | 11¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | $1.7K |
| ↑ 44% | 10% | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $1.6K | |
| ↑ 46% | 7% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $577 | |
| ↓ 30% | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $1.7K | |
| ↓ 32% | 13% | ▲ 3 | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | $3.2K |
| ↓ 34% | 42% | ▼ 5 | 39¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | $1.7K |
| ↓ 35% | 54% | ▼ 1 | 49¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | $2.4K |
| ↓ 36% | 63% | ▼ 2 | 60¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | $1.9K |
| ↓ 37% | 86% | ▼ 1 | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | $755 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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Trump Administration News: Headlines and Video on Trump OfficialsNBC News The latest on the 47th presidential administration. Ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump goes into effect in Russian-occupied town ‘on the brink of disaster’ DOJ asks Washington state to set aside 400 ballots from voters it says… -
Cuba holds on as Trump ups pressureFrom the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. By ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL and GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING 10/26/2026 04:07 PM EDT Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez gives a news conference… -
Trump administration pushes for Venezuela electionsThe Trump administration is working with Venezuela to set up a path toward elections, according to a senior State Department official. The blueprint would see a new Supreme Court, or TSJ, put into place by mid-December of this year… -
Trump campaigns in Mississippi, highlighting Republicans' challengesBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. President Donald Trump… -
Trump, Obama hold rallies ahead of midtermsPresident Trump is holding several rallies, including in deep-red states, in the week before the midterm as he tries to keep his party in control of Congress. Former President Barack Obama is also headlining events, hoping to help flip… -
Trump’s Twelve Apostles Are Already RepentingOct 26, 2026 at 03:02 PM EDT The apostles took rather longer to repent. Within three days of 12 Catholic bishops praying over President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, the apologies had begun. Milwaukee Archbishop Jeffrey Grob regretted… -
Donald Trump's biggest economic problem looks strangely familiarThe White House is confronting a familiar dilemma. The economic numbers aren't necessarily bad - but the public mood is. It's a disconnect that haunted Joe Biden in 2024, when solid headline data failed to convince many voters that the… -
Trump Jokes He’ll Never Rename Mississippi RiverPresident Donald Trump on Monday campaigned in Mississippi as he continued a closing midterm rally blitz. Musing aloud about needing a river and an ocean to... - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter… -
Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House foreverFox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’ panel analyze recent insults from former President Barack Obama against President Donald Trump. Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House forever Fox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’… -
Catholic bishops apologise for 'exploited' Trump meetingTwo Catholic bishops in the US have said they regret meeting President Donald Trump at the White House, after images of them praying with him were released and prompted many to ask if they were making a political statement. Trump and Pope… -
Trump encourages Republicans to support down-ballot racesPresident Trump visited deep-red Mississippi on Monday, rallying for incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, who is facing off against Democrat Scott Colom. CBS News correspondent Skyler Henry has more from Corinth. Trump visits rural… -
Trump campaigns in Mississippi as Election Day nearsFox News correspondent Mark Meredith reports on President Donald Trump's campaign stop in Mississippi ahead of the 2026 midterm elections on 'Special Report.' ... Trump campaigns in Mississippi as Election Day nears Fox News correspondent…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions